3 Best Bets for Sunday Night Football: Bengals at Giants

I'm not sure many projected Week 6's Sunday primetime affair to be this closely contested, but the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants are franchises moving in opposite directions of expectations.

Cincinnati is one of the league's larger disappointments at 1-4 despite a healthy Joe Burrow, but all four losses coming by a single score indicate how quickly the Stripes' season could have flipped on a dime.

Meanwhile, New York is at perhaps its apex of optimism in the Brian Daboll era after thumping the Seattle Seahawks on the road without stud rookie wideout Malik Nabers. The G-Men's defense has been a pleasant surprise in 2024.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's edition of Sunday Night Football.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Sunday Night Football Betting Picks: Bengals at Giants

Giants +4.5 (-128)
Under 23.5 Points in First Half (-110)
Giants First Score to Be a Field Goal (+110)

I'm leaping to the alternate spread market to pick up a key margin of four when the Bengals' recent history indicates they're unlikely to win this one very cleanly.

Cincinnati's 10-point win over the lowly Carolina Panthers is their only game decided by more than a single score, and it's generally hard to lay chalk on the road with the second-worst defense in the NFL, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted efficiency rankings. Zac Taylor has proven some inadequacies handling the clock and calling plays late, which allowed the Baltimore Ravens to creep back and win in Week 5.

As a testament to the Giants' coaching, they just won in Seattle without Devin Singletary and Malik Nabers. Nabers won't play in this contest, yet it sounds like Singletary might -- even if that might not be best for the G-Men's outlook. Rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. starred to 0.14 expected points added (EPA) per carry on Sunday.

At home, the Giants' defense ranks 14th. This game could come down to a pivotal stop late -- one the Bengals have proven on four occasions they can't get.

However, if the need to score isn't frantic, these two teams should trend toward an under, making the points with the Giants even more inherently valuable. New York's situation-neutral adjusted pace ranks 29th in the NFL, and the Bengals (18th) aren't exactly a speed demon. Cincinnati's top-three pass rate over expectation (PROE) is a huge reason why they're 4-1 to the over this season, but they should be inclined to pivot when New York is 13th against the pass but 18th against the rush, according to nF.

I'd hate to see a scoring frenzy late as the game is in the balance burst the total, so we'll take the first-half under at a key number of 23. At some point, the Bengals are due to pull back on long touchdowns to Ja'Marr Chase, and the Giants will surely miss Nabers in a similar timeframe.

One way we'll get to a first-half under is an early drive that stalls. The New York Football Giants are good for one.

Big Blue is converting red zone trips to touchdowns at tied for the fifth-worst rate in the NFL (43.8%). New York has just two offensive touchdowns since Nabers' injury, and one of them came on a 30-yard bomb to Darius Slayton. Even Cincinnati's poor red zone defense (66.7% conversion allowed) should be favored to get a stop when some of the Stripes' struggles in that area are due to playing the very best red area teams in the NFL, including the Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders, and Kansas City Chiefs.

N.Y.'s first points have come on a field goal in three of five games this year, and both exceptions came in games with Nabers. I'd favor a field goal over a touchdown (-155) in this market myself.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.