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3 Best Bets for Monday Night Football: Titans at Dolphins

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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3 Best Bets for Monday Night Football: Titans at Dolphins

Though the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins started the season with very different expectations, they've ended up in the same spot with quarterback questions entering Week 4.

Will Levis authored a 14-point comeback in South Beach last year on Monday Night Football, but he's yet to tie that sort of effort to go for the winless Titans. Tyler Huntley would happily just take an efficient win in his first game as the Fins' starting QB.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's first Monday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Titans at Dolphins

Titans Moneyline (+122)

Moneyline

Sep 30 11:30pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Even numberFire's power rankings are confused about this game -- and a bit loyal to our preseason expectations of these teams.

Tennessee might be 0-3, but their defense isn't to blame. The Titans actually have nF's 10th-best defensive efficiency ranking so far, which isn't a huge surprise if you've watched them. It's been five Will Levis interceptions that's downed the team, but Levis might deserve the benefit of the doubt facing defenses of the Chicago Bears, New York Jets, and Green Bay Packers that all have turned over other clubs.

Miami's defense has been torched for the eighth-most Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play in the last two weeks, which has been masked by the zero offensive touchdowns they've scored since Tua Tagovailoa's concussion. I'd argue they're the worst team in football pending what Snoop Huntley's insertion might do to the offense.

Because of the last-second field goal to win in Week 1, the Dolphins actually haven't held a lead during a game this season. Plus-money odds with the other team against them is not a bad proposition.

Jason Sanders Over 6.5 Kicking Points (-108)
Dolphins First Scoring Play to Be a Field Goal (+110)

Jason Sanders Total Kicking Points

Over
Sep 30 11:30pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook
First Scoring Play - Dolphins
Field Goal

It's kind of crazy to talk about field goals in an offense with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane, but Miami has been struggling in the red area all season.

The Dolphins' 25.0% conversion rate on red-zone trips to touchdowns is second-worst in the NFL thus far. Tennessee's red-zone defense has held well, limiting opponents to a 33.3% rate of converting red-zone trips -- as Levis has given their opponents plenty of opportunities.

Huntley only scored one red-zone touchdown in five appearances last year with the Baltimore Ravens, as well.

That sets up this Jason Sanders "player" prop that is more a team kicking prop, and there is plus money on the Dolphins' first score coming on a field goal. The scariest part here might be leaving a potential "pick six" from Levis on the table, but in a game with an extremely low total (37.5 points), touchdowns of all varieties should be difficult to post.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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