3 Best Bets for Monday Night Football: Saints at Chiefs

Can the champs overcome adversity again?

No one doubts the organizational excellence of the Kansas City Chiefs at this stage, but they're simply running into a familiar problem for many NFL teams: attrition. With key skill players out, they edged out a win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week. In Week 5, it'll be a tougher test than anticipated as the new-look New Orleans Saints come to visit.

A last-second field goal downed the Saints in another fiery effort last Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons, but offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has Derek Carr playing his best football in nearly a decade. Will it lead to an upset?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's edition of Monday Night Football.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Saints at Chiefs

Under 43.5 Points (-118)
Chiefs Under 24.5 Points (-126)

Including last season's playoffs, the under has hit in 16 of the Chiefs' last 25 games. With pieces like Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco out of the lineup, they'll likely have to produce another ugly slog to turn back the Saints.

That's something this team has grown comfortable doing. A far cry from the early Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs are a sporty 12th in numberFire's efficiency rankings on D. Their defensive line seems primed to wreck tonight's game behind Chris Jones, holding the second-largest advantage when pass rushing in all Week 5 matchups, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Not to be outdone, Dennis Allen's Saints are numberFire's fourth-best overall defense, and they rank third against the pass.

I'd argue this is an even better spot for K.C's team total as an under. That's not only due to a key scoring number (24.5), but it's also because this is a significant downgrade in game environment for the Chiefs, who -- on their own -- sport the NFL's second-best adjusted pace and seventh-highest pass rate over expectation (PROE). They'll be forced onto the field with New Orleans, who rank 20th in adjusted pace and 31st in PROE.

Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense also isn't supremely efficient at the moment. He's just 12th among starters at a fairly human 0.03 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db), and their running game -- obviously -- takes a huge hit without Pacheco.

Expecting efficiency for K.C. to decrease even further without both Pacheco and Rice in time, I'm forecasting a gritty, low-scoring affair on Monday.

Chiefs First Score to Be a Field Goal (+145)

Field goals correlate well with unders, and the Chiefs have given us plenty of those.

K.C.'s 45.5% rate of converting red zone trips to touchdowns in ninth-worst in football. To make matters worse for them, no defense in the league is bending and not breaking mathematically better than NOLA. They've given up touchdowns on just 22.2% of opponents' trips inside the 20.

The losses of Pacheco and Rice hurt significantly in the red area. They're still responsible for two of K.C.'s four touchdowns in that area, which makes sense when Pacheco departed 4.0 red-zone opportunities per game, and Rice has seen a team-best 13.3% share of Patrick Mahomes' looks in scoring range.

On a night where scoring could prove to be difficult overall, I'll trust Harrison Butker to put the defending champs on the board first -- and it could take a bit.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.