3 Best Bets for College Football Week 10
Each week in college football, there a tons of games available to us.
While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.
As usual, the college football slate is featuring plenty of playoff stakes. The Oregon Ducks are looking to stay undefeated on the road against the Michigan Wolverines. The Iowa State Cyclones, Indiana Hoosiers, Texas A&M Aggies, and Clemson Tigers are all looking to impress are borderline College Football Playoff teams. Week 10 isn't without powerhouse matchups, too, as the Ohio State Buckeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions collide in a top-five matchup -- the third over the last month of play.
Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?
All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
College Football Week 10 Betting Picks
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions
Under 45.5 (-115)
Starting with the biggest game of the week, watching the injury report will be a huge key for this one. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, who holds +5000 odds to win the Heisman Trophy, is tracking to be a game-time decision for Saturday's battle. If Allar cannot go, the job will fall to Beau Pribula -- who completed 11 of 13 passing attempts for 98 passing yards and a touchdown paired with 28 rushing yards last week.
Pribula brings more of a dual threat with his legs, but he's still logged a 89.2 passing grade over 23 passing attempts (via Pro Football Focus). Still, replacing Allar's 89.9 PFF player grade and 87.2 passing grade would be easier said than done.
Considering the Nittany Lions could be playing a backup QB paired with both defenses sitting in the top 10 of points allowed per game and yards allowed per play, the under is shaping up to be the best bet.
OSU is clearly vulnerable right now, mainly when it comes to defending the pass and winning the lines of scrimmage. Fortunately for the Buckeyes, Penn State is in the top 20% in rushing attempt rate. Ohio State is giving up only 2.9 yards per carry (ninth-fewest) while ranking second in EPA allowed per carry. Plus, the Buckeyes have one of the best run-stuffing duos in the nation in defensive tackles Tyleik Williams (88.7 run defense grade) and Ty Hamilton (74.9 run defense grade).
However, if Allar goes, the Lions average 9.9 yards per passing attempt (fourth-most). In this case, I'd back the Penn State moneyline (+140) after seeing Oregon's passing game stack big plays against OSU. Ryan Day is 1-7 against top-five opponents while James Franklin is 1-12 in top-five clashes; neither coach is trustworthy in these type of games.
Going back to the under, Ohio State's offense line struggled last week, and left tackle is under question after first-string tackle Josh Simmons sustained a season-ending injury and backup Zen Michalski's status is up in the air after leaving last week's game with an injury. Either way, this O-line just struggled, leading to only 2.1 yards per carry while Nebraska totaled two sacks and seven tackles for loss.
Total Match Points
Penn State boasts one of the best defensive fronts in America, led by projected first-round draft pick Abdul Carter (via NFL Mock Draft Database). Not only do the Lions carry PFF's 15th-best pass rushing rate, they also give up only 3.2 yards per carry (14th-fewest) and 93.1 rushing yards per game (6th-fewest).
numberFire's game projections are siding with Ohio State, 22.7-21.5. In what should be a tight game, I'm trusting the defenses -- especially with College Football Nerd's model holding only a 38-point total for this game.
No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks
Texas A&M -2.5 (-115)
As previously mentioned, Texas A&M is in a prime playoff spot, carrying +100 odds to make the College Football Playoff. This comes after an impressive 38-23 win over the then-ranked No.8 LSU Tigers. This weekend's road trip to the South Carolina Gamecocks will likely be a major factor in the Aggies' playoff line going forward as the next two games are against New Mexico State and Auburn followed by a home game against Texas.
South Carolina's 4-3 record doesn't exactly instill fear. However, Williams-Brice Stadium is one of the most underrated atmospheres across the SEC. Plus, the Gamecocks are giving up only 18.7 points per game (top 10%) and 4.2 yards per play (top 4%) while ranking 10th in EPA allowed per play. This is one of the best defenses in the nation, led by PFF's second-best pass rushing grade.
Don't be fooled by that 38-23 final against LSU last week; Texas A&M likes to muddy it up, too. The Aggies are in the top 7% of rushing attempt rate while allowing 19.6 PPG (top 14%). USC's offense features a similar play style, sitting in the top 13% of run play rate. However, this gets tricky with each defense in the top 11% in rushing yards allowed per carry.
A quarterback switch was part of A&M's success against LSU. With Conner Weigman struggling by completing only 6 of 18 passing attempts for 64 yards (3.6 yards per passing attempt), the Aggies moved to Marcel Reed last week. He helped engineer a 31-6 run in the second half against LSU, attempting only two passes for 70 yards while logging 62 rushing yards on nine carries (6.9 yards per rushing attempt).
Slowing a pass rush by running into the teeth of a defense is often a sound strategy. It proved to be effective in the Gamecocks' last two losses as their opponents averaged a 61.2% run play rate. Texas A&M holds a 62.9% run play rate, which jumped to 71.0% in Week 9.
Spread
South Carolina has faced only two teams in the top 25 of EPA per carry, and it lost both games to Ole Miss and Alabama. With the 14th-most EPA per rushing attempt, I like the Aggies' chances of putting up enough points.
On the other side of the field, A&M's defense had a nose for the ball last week by forcing three turnovers. The unit is in the top 33% in takeaways per game while USC is in the bottom 29% in giveaways per contest. While the Gamecocks force 2.3 turnovers per game (top 4%), the Aggies take care of the ball with only 0.9 turnovers per game (top 10%).
In a collision between similar play styles, the turnover battle will likely decide this game. Texas A&M is the best bet to win extra possessions, and South Carolina's recent struggles against run-heavy teams brings this pick home.
No. 18 Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 20 SMU Mustangs
Pittsburgh Under 24.5 (-118)
The ACC is led by two top-11 teams in Miami and Clemson. While the two are the clear favorites to win the ACC with odds at +135 or less, don't sleep on the Pittsburgh Panthers and SMU Mustangs. SMU carries +650 odds to win the ACC championship while Pittsburgh is +1700. If either team is to make a surprise appearance in the ACC title game, Saturday's contest is a must-win game.
If you like offense, this is the game for you as both teams log over 35.0 PPG while sitting in the top 14% of the category. The Mustangs are carrying a big advantage ahead of this game as 7.5-point favorites, though.
Pittsburgh quarterback Eli Holstein has been electric with 1,805 passing yards and 17 touchdowns, engineering a 55.1% pass play rate (top 17%) for the Panthers' offense. However, Holstein is questionable for this game after suffering an injury in Week 9. If absent, Nate Yarnell would be under center, and he has attempted only 26 passes this season.
A backup signal-caller with little experience certainly points to running the ball more often, but SMU is allowing only 2.9 yards per carry (6%) and ranks fifth in EPA allowed per rushing attempt.
Pittsburgh Total Points
I already have questions about the efficiency of the Panthers' passing attack. Pittsburgh ranks only 37th in EPA per passing attempt, and Holstein has logged PFF passing grades of 44.7 or worse over his previous two starts. Despite ranking 31st in EPA allowed per drop back, the 'Stangs have actually fare well against good passing attacks. Louisville is the only top-15 team in EPA per drop back that SMU has seen. While the Cardinals logged 9.3 yards per passing attempt, SMU still came out with a 34-27 win.
The Mustangs have already avoided big point totals against good offenses, including Louisville and BYU (scored 18 points). SMU can do the same in Week 10, and Pittsburgh's injury at quarterback only adds to the belief. Running the ball more often only benefits this Mustangs defense, and numberFire's projections have the Panthers scoring only 20.5 points -- which usually doesn't account for injuries.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.