3 Best Bets and Predictions for the College Football Playoff Semifinals

Each week in college football, there are tons of games available to us.

While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.

And then there were four. Following the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, only four teams remain in the fight for a national championship.

The Big Ten has thrived with two teams alive and well in the Ohio State Buckeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish also come off perhaps their biggest win in a decade over the Georgia Bulldogs. The Texas Longhorns are the lone SEC squad remaining as they look to become the 14th SEC team to win a national championship since 2006.

The semifinals kick off with the Orange Bowl between Notre Dame and Penn State on Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET. Friday night features the Cotton Bowl as Ohio State and Texas clash with a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff time.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for the College Football Playoff semifinals?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Playoff Semifinals Betting Picks

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions

Under 45.5 Points (-115)

Of the two semifinal games, the Orange Bowl is expected to be the low-scoring game with a 45.5 total compared to the Cotton Bowl at 53.5.

Notre Dame and Penn State are led by outstanding defenses with NFL talent. Starting with the Fighting Irish, they have allowed only 13.6 points per game (second-fewest) and 4.4 yards per play (fifth-fewest) while ranked second in EPA allowed per play. Notre Dame is led by safety Xavier Watts, who ranks 74th on NFL Mock Draft Data Base's 2025 Consensus Big Board.

The Nittany Lions aren't far behind by giving up 15.8 PPG (fifth-fewest) and 4.4 yards per play (sixth-fewest) while ranking seventh in EPA allowed per contest. Penn State touts Pro Football Focus' 12th-best pass rushing grade, which is led by perhaps the best defensive end in college football, Abdul Carter (5th on 2025 Consensus Big Board). After leaving the quarterfinals from injury, Carter is questionable for Thursday's contest.

Each team is in the top 34% for the slowest tempos in college football (most seconds per play), and both squads are in the top 30% for the highest rush-play rates. Between the two, this seems headed for a defensive slugfest.

Stopping the run is the Lions' best attribute, giving up 3.1 yards per carry (eighth-fewest). Plus, Notre Dame's running back Jeremiyah Love is banged up from injury. Penn State has the pass rush to expose the Irish's pass protection (70th in PFF's pass blocking grade).

On the other side of the ball, the Fighting Irish are fifth in EPA allowed per rushing attempt, potentially slowing PSU's two-headed monster of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Notre Dame also leads football in EPA allowed per drop back while the Nittany Lions log 8.5 yards per passing attempt (top 9%).

Ultimately, these defenses are equipped to shine in the Orange Bowl. If Carter can go, Penn State is an intriguing upset pick (+110). The Nittany Lions are perceived to be the more talented team, and quarterback Drew Allar paired with tight end Tyler Warren could be the difference maker.

For now, I'll stick with the under as numberFire's college football game projections has this total reaching 43.3 points, and College Football Nerds' model has the two reaching 41.3 combined points.

No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3 Texas Longhorns

Texas +5.5 (+100)

Notre Dame-Penn State is expected to be the tighter semifinal matchup with a 1.5-point spread, but Ohio State-Texas could be one hell of a game.

These are two of perhaps the three most talented rosters in college football (Oregon rounding out the group). While the Longhorns have been topsy-turvy to begin the playoff, they still rank second in net EPA per play. We know what the Buckeyes are capable of, ranked first in net EPA per play while winning their first two playoff games by an average margin of +22.5 points.

After taking out the Oregon Ducks 41-21, everyone seems to be on Ohio State. The Buckeyes now hold the shortest odds to win the national championship (-120) while the next shortest line is Notre Dame all the way back at +410. Frankly, Texas is being slept on at +450 to win it all. If UT can win the Cotton Bowl, hypothetical odds have them as favorites over Penn State or Notre Dame.

An explosive passing attack led by Jeremiah Smith and Will Howard has dramatically changed the narrative surrounding OSU in the postseason. However, the Buckeyes have not seen a complete secondary on the level of Texas.

The Longhorns are third in EPA allowed per drop back and feature studs like Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron and safeties Andrew Mukuba and Michael Taaffe. Texas is also 5th in PFF's pass-rushing grades, giving Ohio State's makeshift offensive line some worries (107th in pass blocking grade).

On the other side of the ball, the Longhorns are first in pass blocking grade, and first-round prospect Cam Williams is approaching a return. That should help get this offense going against Ohio State's daunting defense that's first in EPA allowed per play.

The bottom line: I like Texas' chances of winning the trenches on Friday. Dominating the lines of scrimmage has been OSU's recipe for success of recent. If that's even slightly kept in check, this should be closer than what most expect.

About 82% of the public is taking the Buckeyes to cover at FanDuel Sportsbook, giving me even more confidence for this pick. numberFire has OSU winning by about 4.7 points, suggesting a slight lean for UT to cover. A dart on the Texas moneyline (+190) even seems worthwhile.

Ohio State Under 30.5 Points (-122)

Our spread pick for the Cotton Bowl has a lot to do with "gut feeling." Texas simply has a loaded roster that's capable of going back and forth with Ohio State, but that's not what we've seen in the playoffs.

The Longhorns were frankly fortunate to escape the quarterfinals, and the defense has now given up 27.5 PPG in the playoffs and over 400 yards of offense in back-to-back games. This unit is wavering, but my most confident pick for this game is under 30.5 points for the Buckeyes (-122).

Scoring 30 points in any big game is easier said than done. numberFire has OSU scoring 27.5 points and College Football Nerds has it at 25.5 points. As PFF's player ratings suggest, this game is loaded with defensive talent.

Not only is Barron one of the best corners Ohio State has seen this season, so is the Longhorn defensive line. Interior defensive lineman Alfred Collins has played himself into the NFL Draft thanks to an 89.3 PFF player grade. Vernon Broughton (137th) and Barryn Sorrell (251st) are also drawing NFL hype on the 2025 Consensus Big Board. Edge rusher Colin Simmons won the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year Award -- even over OSU's Smith.

Fast starts have been the Scarlet and Gray's MO in the playoffs, but UT gives up the third-fewest points in the first quarter per game (1.8). When Ohio State fails to set the run up by taking deep shots, the run game has been shaky this season. Considering the Longhorns' excellent first quarter defense paired with NFL dudes all over the defensive line, the Buckeyes' beat up offensive line could finally look human.

Howard has also dealt with turnover issues at times this season, including two interceptions against Michigan and a pick-six against Penn State. The Longhorns force 2.0 takeaways per contest (eighth-most).

While scoring under 30.5 points isn't necessarily a death sentence for OSU, this at least pairs well with the idea of two elite defenses colliding and Texas coming up with a cover.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.