3 Best Bets and Predictions for Bengals at Chargers on Sunday Night Football
A desperate Joe Shiesty? That'll play.
Sunday Night Football brings a marquee matchup of 2020 NFL Draft quarterbacks. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals will visit Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in a game where both teams don't want to fall much further behind the juggernauts that lead their division.
Cincinnati is coming off a heartbreaking loss against the Baltimore Ravens where they led 21-7 and failed a two-point conversion to win with seconds left. In Week 10, the Bolts got the next-best thing to a bye week in the NFL: a home date with the Tennessee Titans. They, as most do, crushed the embattled Flameheads.
Which team comes out with a win?
Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Sunday night game.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Bengals at Chargers Betting Picks
Chargers Moneyline (-126)
Moneyline
For years, "Chargering" was a legitimate term in NFL circles. Previously San Diego's and currently Los Angeles' franchise could always find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Jim Harbaugh has flipped that on its head.
L.A. has gone from the chronic chokers to one of the most consistent products in the NFL. Built on the foundation of numberFire's 2nd-ranked schedule-adjusted defense and 14th-ranked schedule-adjusted offense, the low-scoring, run-first Bolts are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) this season.
At home, they rank 9th in nF's power rankings to Cincinnati's 16th. Joe Burrow has been scorching of late, but this is still nF's fifth-worst overall defense and seventh-worst rushing attack. Though the return of Tee Higgins is another weapon for him, he'll ultimately still be tasked with cultivating lemonade from its source.
Only one back has topped 70 rushing yards against L.A. this season (James Conner; 101), so it's sort of easy to see Harbaugh's newfound defense making the Bengals one-dimensional, and the Stripes' pressure rate allowed (28%) is fifth-worst in the league. In addition to a poor defense, it's a lot to ask of Burrow at a short number.
Ultimately, Cincinnati's product is sloppy. Last week's lead on the Ravens -- right where you want them -- vanished due to a backup wide receiver housing an eight-yard out route. This is a friendly price to back a more stable alternative in front of what's sure to be a growing fanbase.
numberFire projects a Chargers win 60.9% of the time on Sunday.
Under 47.5 Points (-115)
Bengals Under 23.5 Points (-114)
Total Match Points
We've seen three consecutive unders on primetime, and this matchup could easily merit a fourth.
Seven of the Chargers' nine games have swung that way, but that hasn't stopped oddsmakers from setting this total (47.5) as the third-highest of the week.
It probably should have. Per Brandon Gdula's Week 11 Adjusted Pace and Pass Report, this is the third-slowest combined matchup of the weekend. Both of these teams are 17th or worse in adjusted pace.
We can also project some improvement in scoring defense from Cincy, who have ceded 17 or fewer offensive points to their last three opponents not named the Ravens or Eagles. L.A. has a 4.3% rush rate over expectation despite being nF's 23rd-ranked rushing offense. They don't really lean into their strengths with Herbert.
Bengals Total Points
The Bolts haven't allowed more than 20 total points all season, and this one-dimensional Bengals attack is no true juggernaut. I'm adding the Bengals' team total to ladder this angle -- just in case Cincy's defensive woes compound with a team that's run out of hope.
nF projects just 19.9 total points for the Bengals in this one.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.