3 Best Bets and Player Props for Mavericks at Jazz
Even within a single NBA game, betting markets are abundant.
You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.
Which bets stand out today as the Dallas Mavericks face the Utah Jazz?
Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.
Mavericks at Jazz Betting Picks
Over 231.5 Points (-110)
The Mavericks and Jazz will meet up for Thursday's lone NBA game. Dallas is favored by 9.0 points, and the contest is showing a meaty 231.5 over/under.
The high game total checks out for many reasons and leads me to targeting the over.
Dallas (12th) and Utah (7th) are playing at two of the fastest paces in the league. Both groups ranked in the top 10 of pace a season ago, so the quick tempo metrics are stabilized. Great things happen when two fast teams square off. This season, there have been 26 games between teams that each rank in the top 12 of pace. In this split, contests averaged 235.9 points and exceeded 231.5 points at a 76.9% rate (20 out of 26 games).
To add, neither group is particularly impressive on defense. The Mavs check in with the 10th-best defensive rating, but we know how sloppy the regular-season defense can get with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the fold. The Jazz, meanwhile, struggle with the league's fourth-worst defensive rating.
On top of that, neither team shies away from the three-ball. Utah is shooting the 13th-most three-point attempts (3PA) while Dallas is attempting the 17th-most. On defense, the Jazz are letting up the fifth-most 3PA and the Mavs are ceding the 14th-most.
All in all, this game figures to accommodate a rowdy scoring environment.
Luka Doncic Over 47.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-111)
If we're expecting an even higher scoring game than what the market has in mind, Luka Doncic emerges as a prime target in the props market.
Doncic is averaging 44.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) this season. He's been underperforming his long-term averages in just about every stat category, including shooting efficiency, rebound conversion, and assist conversion. Had he performed at his long-term averages, we'd expect him to be netting 49.6 PRA this season.
In short, Doncic's shot volume, rebound chances, and assist opportunities are off the charts, and he's due to see some positive regression.
Tonight's game environment sets an awesome scene for Luka. He'll be facing the seventh-fastest team in the NBA -- one that coughs up the 5th-most points, 11th-most rebounds, and the 4th-most assists per game. The Jazz are also letting up the fifth-most 3PA and the fourth-most 3PM, so this is a total smash spot for Luka.
Our NBA player projections expect Luka to net 47.7 PRA tonight, and I'm even higher on him based on his path for positive regression.
Collin Sexton Over 19.5 Pts + Ast (-125)
Collin Sexton got off to a slow start this year, but he's been averaging 23.3 combined points and assists (PA) across his last four games.
The Mavs are allowing the sixth-most points, seventh-most assists, and seventh-most 3PA per game to opposing guards. Add in the high game total, and Sexton could be primed for his best game of the season.
Based on his long-term averages in shooting efficiency and assist conversion, Sexton is netting 16.5 expected points and 4.0 expected assists per game -- good for 20.5 expected PA.
He played just 23.0 minutes per game to start the season but has since averaged 28.6 minutes over his last six. That uptick in playing time has allowed him to exceed 19.5 PA in four of six games in this split. Plus, he has shot a minimum of 12 FGA and an average of 14.3 FGA across his last four contests. Sexton's usage is increasing just in time for an intriguing date with Dallas.
Our projections forecast him to log 22.3 PA in this one.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.