NFL

3 Best Bets and Player Props for Chiefs at Chargers, Week 4

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes

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3 Best Bets and Player Props for Chiefs at Chargers, Week 4

A matchup between the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs and 2-1 Los Angeles Chargers should be a banger.

Injuries on the Chargers' side do put a dent in some of that. But it still sets up to be an entertaining affair.

Which bets stand out in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds for this AFC West duel? Let's dig in.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Chiefs vs. Chargers Betting Picks

Total Over 39.5 Points (-115)

Total Match Points

Over
Sep 29 8:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Even with downgrades to the Chargers' offense, I'm still seeing value in the over here.

Some of that is a bet against the Chargers' defense. Although they've played great thus far, they've also faced the quarterback gauntlet of Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, and Justin Fields. Going up against Patrick Mahomes will be a slightly tougher test.

Despite an uneven start, the Chiefs have still put up 27, 26, and 22 points thus far. If they can keep that up, we won't need much of a contribution from the other side.

With wind not a factor here, I've got this total pretty easily clear of 40.

Carson Steele Any Time Touchdown (+120)

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Carson Steele

There is some shakiness with Carson Steele's role in Week 4 now that Kareem Hunt has been elevated to the active roster. But Steele should still be the goal-line back, and his red-zone role was in elite in his first start.

In Week 3, Steele handled 8 of the team's 14 carries or targets inside the red zone. Typically an elite number for a back is 45%, and Steele was at 57.1% there, which makes sense based on his physicality.

Steele's rushing prop of 44.5 yards also isn't too shabby after he handled 17 carries last week. But with Hunt looming, I think the touchdown market is the better way to buy into what was a really impressive role.

Patrick Mahomes Under 17.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Patrick Mahomes - Rushing Yds

Patrick Mahomes Under
Sep 29 8:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Typically, Mahomes runs most when it's the playoffs and when he's under duress. With potentially neither in place Sunday, I think we can ride with the under.

Joey Bosa's absence plays a key role there. That'll decrease the amount of pressure the Chargers are able to generate, reducing the number of times Mahomes has to scramble. Plus, with the Chiefs favored by seven, it's possible their raw number of drop backs is lower, too.

Mahomes did go over this number in 11 of his 16 games last year, but that was while the offense was scuffling and needed him a bit more in that area. He has gone under in two of three this year, and I think we could see the same thing happen Sunday.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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