3 Best Australian Open Tennis Bets for Day 11

The first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, is underway and into the second week.

What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which quarterfinal matches could have the most betting value on Day 11.

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Australian Open Tennis Quarterfinal Betting Picks for Day 11

Madison Keys vs. Elina Svitolina

Over 21.5 Total Match Games (-128)

Madison Keys is off to a great start to her season, entering these quarterfinals with an 11-1 record that includes winning a title at Adelaide just ahead of this event. She also just knocked off one of the tournament's top contenders in Elena Rybakina, who was a finalist at the 2023 Australian Open.

However, Keys hasn't exactly cruised into this round with three of her four matches going over 21.5 total match games.

This opens the door for Elina Svitolina, who has dropped just one set despite playing zero tune-up matches before this major. However, she's had a fairly easy draw to this point -- facing just one player ranked inside the top 70 -- and her lone dropped set came against world No. 4 Jasmine Paolini in a three-setter that went 24 games.

That's the type of tight match we should expect between these two. In four completed matches against one another, they've split their head-to-head 2-2, and just one of those matches didn't go over 21.5 games.

Per Tennis Abstract, Keys is projected for a 57.5% win probability, which falls well short of her 67.2% odds as a -205 favorite. She dropped lopsided sets in both of her three-setters here, including a 1-6 clunker against Rybakina, which also makes backing her to cover a 3.5-game spread feel riskier.

Ultimately, the American has lost only one match to open 2025, so she feels more likely to emerge victorious. But this should be a competitive match against an in-form Svitolina, and we should expect the two to go over this total with a fairly good chance of reaching a third set.

Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego

Shelton -3.5 Games (-122)
Under 10.5 Total Shelton Aces (-118)

Nothing has come super easy for Ben Shelton or Lorenzo Sonego over the first four rounds, but the American has impressed by surviving the tougher draw of the two, and he presents a tough matchup for the Italian.

Three of the four opponents Shelton has faced are ranked inside the top 50, and he most notably earned a four-set victory over 15th-ranked Lorenzo Musetti in the third round. While Shelton benefited from Gael Monfils retiring in the fourth round, he held a 2-1 set lead after enduring three straight tiebreaks before the 38-year-old ran out of gas. Monfils was on an eight-match win steak and had bested Taylor Fritz in the previous round, so his form certainly wasn't in question despite his body finally giving out on him.

On the other hand, Sonego hasn't faced anyone ranked inside the top 50 to get here but has been taken to four or five sets in all four rounds. While this shouldn't discount his five-set win over teenage phenom Joao Fonseca, Fonseca admitted he suffered from nerves following his buzzy upset over Andrey Rublev.

But perhaps the biggest hurdle for the Italian will be his return game. According to ATP's stat leaderboards over the past 52 weeks, Sonega ranks 67th out of 69 qualifying players in return rating on hard courts, which includes ranking 66th in the percentage of return games won (13.0%) and break points converted (31.5%). This will be especially concerning for him against Shelton, who is third in serve rating on hard courts and has won over 80% of his first serve points in each of the last three matches.

Tennis Abstract sees a wide gap between the two on this surface -- the Italian has a 41.4% win percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks -- and projects Shelton to win 71.9% of the time. On paper, this should be a smoother win for the American than what we've seen so far.

If we assume a fairly routine win for Shelton, another angle to take is the under on 10.5 aces.

That might seem counterintuitive after establishing Sonega isn't a great returner, but he actually doesn't get aced at a high clip. Per Tennis Abstract, his hard court ace rate against is just 4.6% over the past 52 weeks, whereas the average among the top 50 players is 8.9%.

Despite going four or five sets in all his Australian Open matches, Sonega's had 6, 11, 9, and 4 aces against him with that lone over coming in the five-setter versus Fonseca.

In the one career hard court match between these two, Shelton logged just five aces over three sets at 2022 Cincinnati. And in the last round, Shelton reached only seven aces against Monfils, who has a 4.4% ace rate against on hard courts that's similar to Sonega's mark.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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