2026 Stephen Foster Picks: 3 Best Bets

Key Takeaways:

• The Stephen Foster brings together one of the deepest older-horse fields of the year, and with a likely honest pace plus the chance of rain, trip and value could matter just as much as raw class.
• Magnitude looks poised for a breakthrough effort, as the scratches improve his pace scenario and his proven ability to stalk over this course and distance makes him a dangerous alternative to the favorite.
• White Abarrio has already shown he can topple Sovereignty, and another patient, tactical trip under Irad Ortiz Jr. gives the veteran every chance to repeat that Oaklawn success.
• Sovereignty gets the race shape he wanted last time, with enough early speed to let him settle into his preferred closing style, making him a deserving favorite despite the short price.

Many years, the feeling of serious summer horse racing begins with Del Mar and Saratoga, but this year, there’s a top-class treat before the month of June is even over. The Grade 1, $2 million Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs, which offers the winner an automatic bid to the Breeders’ Cup, drew the marquee players in the handicap division for an early-summer showdown.

The top names among the seven in this year’s Stephen Foster field are reigning Horse of the Year Sovereignty and 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner White Abarrio. One is a four-year-old who has all the expectations of becoming the top handicap horse in America this year – and the other is a seven-year-old who has won several of the biggest handicap races in the world already, and already toppled Sovereignty in a top-class edition of the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) in April.

They are only two of the four top-level winners in the Stephen Foster Stakes. Magnitude, who defeated no less a horse than reigning Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and champion older dirt male Forever Young in the Dubai World Cup (G1), returns to the site of his Clark Stakes (G2) triumph last fall. Baeza, a troubled third in his seasonal debut in the Alysheba (G2) on Kentucky Oaks day, tries again for his first graded win against older foes.

With such an exciting group of horses, it stands to be a solid place to look for value – playing the board will be important, in order to determine which classy contender is being undervalued.

These are the three best bets in the 2026 Stephen Foster:

Stephen Foster Betting Picks, Best Bets

1. Magnitude (7-2)

The worry with Magnitude, of course, is whether he shows the Dubai bounce. However, he has had three months to freshen up from then until this race, and he is a horse who can fire very nicely fresh. That could have him in the perfect form to contest for another upset against some more of the best horses in the world, just like he did in Dubai against Forever Young.

The scratches of Navajo Warrior and Forged Steel are good news for Magnitude, as that gets some of the other speed out of the race. However, there’s still rail-drawn Willy D’s who will almost certainly gun it to the front. That’s no issue for Magnitude. He is classy speed, not one-way speed – he showed that once and for all in the Clark (G2) last out, over this very same course and distance, where he sat in second position off a sharp pace and battled home to win. Magnitude has every chance to get first run on Willy D’s, and the way Churchill often plays, it could very well be best run.

There is also a possibility of rain through Saturday afternoon. If that bears out, it’s worth noting that Magnitude won the Iowa Derby on a track rated good last year. And, though he was off the board in his other off-track start, he wasn’t anywhere near the front in that race, which was over a year ago. He’s a better horse now, he’s well-bred for the slop, and if Jose Ortiz gets him away well, he should handle the conditions and be in the picture every step of the way.

2. White Abarrio (3-1)

White Abarrio defeated Sovereignty by two lengths last out at Oaklawn Park, and he has a strong chance to do that again here, as well. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. knows this horse well and can take advantage of his tactical speed. With a couple of early-speed types in Willy D’s and Magnitude still in the race, even after the scratches of his pair of longshot stablemates – he should be able to sit a few lengths off of the pace and make a run, much like he has done many times before, including last time out.

The biggest question is Churchill Downs, since he has yet to finish better than third over the course. But, he has only raced there twice – and not at all in four years. He’s a horse who can bring his form around the country with him, and a horse whose trainer, Saffie Joseph, Jr., has been making magic with shippers. Expect another strong effort.

3. Sovereignty (6-5)

Sovereignty is the likely favorite, even coming off of the runner-up finish behind White Abarrio last out. It was still a solid effort, though, especially given both the extended layoff and the fact that he was doing the dirty work on the pace, which has never been Sovereignty’s running style. Now he has that race underneath him, and with a solid amount of pace even after the scratches of the outside-drawn longshot pair, jockey Junior Alvarado should be able to get the best out of Sovereignty. The price will be short, but his chances are strong.

The chance of rain on Saturday is also worth noting. Sovereignty is not the only one with form over a rain-affected course, but he won both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes impressively last year over wet tracks, a very appealing couple of form lines if the weather does swing that way. He can run well and make up ground over a wet track in Louisville, something he should be ready to do in his second start of the year.

New to FanDuel Racing? Place your first bet of $10 on any race at any track & get $50 back in Racing Bonus. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Racing Promos.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.