Breeders’ Cup Longshots and Underdogs: Emerging Stars and Cinderella Stories

Key Takeaways:

• The Breeders’ Cup’s biggest underdog stories come from horses who defy expectations and take on elite competition despite modest pedigrees, auction prices, and connections.
• Joe Shiesty (10-1) went from a $16,000 short yearling to a graded-stakes winner, developing into a top turf sprinter at age five after years of steady progress.
• Joe Shiesty’s Woodford (G2) victory at Keeneland showed he can battle with top turf sprinters, making his first Breeders’ Cup start a compelling Cinderella story.
• Little Thunder (30-1) overcame modest breeding and a $12,000 auction reserve-not-attained result to win his way through the ranks, including a dominant allowance victory at Tampa Bay Downs.
• Little Thunder’s runner-up finish in the Phoenix (G2) against seasoned graded-stakes company earned him a shot at the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, where his limited experience and consistent form leave room for another breakthrough.

A lot of the horses in the Breeders’ Cup World Championships are the kinds of horses everyone expected to be huge stars.

Think of Sovereignty and Knightsbridge, two of the marquee contenders in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. They’re bred and raced by Godolphin, and even though it takes a certain amount of luck to get a homebred into the starting gate in Breeders’ Cup races, much less win them? It’s a little less difficult and a little less surprising when you have generations worth of the world’s best bloodlines.

Think of American History and Damavand, Todd Pletcher’s pair of horses in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. American History was an $825,000 yearling at the Keeneland September yearling sale in 2025; Damavand cost a cool $1 million at the same sale. Some of the biggest gamblers in horse racing are the people and partnerships who pay that much hoping for a Grade 1 horse … but with a price tag come expectations, and at least some of those auction headline-makers have to make it at the top level for those kinds of gambles to keep being worth it.

But, the old adage is that a good horse can come from anywhere. Most people watching the Breeders’ Cup don’t have millions of dollars to sling around at sales, or to build internationally powerful breeding operations. For a lot of horse racing fans, the most poignant moments come when a horse with a more common-man background is able to look the bluebloods square in the eye under the brightest lights and prove to be their equal.

For anyone who loves those kinds of stories, here are two horses to follow during the 2026 Breeders’ Cup weekend at Keeneland.

Naturally, you can bet which horses will win their Breeders’ Cup races at FanDuel Racing. Also, discover 2026 Breeders’ Cup odds and bet the Breeders’ Cup with exclusive bonuses and promos.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint: Joe Shiesty (10-1 morning-line odds)

When a horse hammers for $16,000 as a short yearling, it’s a sign of optimism to see them entered in a maiden claimer for more than their auction price. A maiden special weight win is a bonus. A stakes win is a dream.

A career that catapults them to earnings of over a million dollars and a serious chance at Breeders’ Cup glory? That’s rare, and yet that’s the trajectory that hip 1474 at the Keeneland January sale has taken.

Named Joe Shiesty, the son of Air Force Blue made it to the track in November of 2023 at Churchill Downs. Trained by Eric Foster for a partnership including him and his wife Brooklyn, Joe Shiesty debuted in a 5 ½-furlong maiden special weight on the dirt and finished eighth, beaten a dozen lengths by a winner who went on to be pretty good: Mystik Dan, winner of the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

He switched to sprinting on the Tapeta at Turfway for his second start, also at the maiden special weight level. He finished fifth, beaten nine lengths in a field where the runner-up by a neck was Epic Ride, who also made his way to the Kentucky Derby and eventually won at the Grade 3 level on grass. Third out, however, was the charm for Joe Shiesty – on December 21 of his 2-year-old year he put it all together, leading at every call and winning by 12 ¾ lengths, geared down, in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Turfway.

He was an allowance winner and stakes-placed by the time the Turfway meet ended, but he hadn’t even tried the surface that would end up his best. That didn’t come until May 1 at Churchill Downs, when he tried the 5 ½-furlong William Walker Stakes on the grass. On paper, it made sense he would like grass: he was by Air Force Blue out of a More Than Ready mare, after all. But, no one else knows until a horse tries something – ignored as a 29-1 long shot in the race, Joe Shiesty blasted to the lead and never relented, winning by 2 ¼ lengths.

It would be so easy to say Joe Shiesty became a turf sprint star from there, but the real world is a little less predictable. After off-the-board finishes at Ellis and Kentucky Downs, he needed a drop to allowance company that fall at Keeneland to come back to the winners’ circle.

After a pair of runner-up finishes at the allowance level at Churchill Downs to close out his sophomore season, Joe Shiesty went to the bench. But, next summer at age four, he was even better. In five starts as a four-year-old, he won twice in stakes company, once on turf and once on Tapeta, and also earned his first graded placing. That came in the Woodford (G2) at Keeneland – he was third, only a neck behind the world-class Khaadem.

One of the beautiful things about a gelding is that there’s no rush to send him to the breeding shed – if it takes time for him to develop into his best form, there’s all the time in the world. And, Joe Shiesty developed into his best self this year at age five. In six starts, he has won three times. He won the Big Daddy on the Turfway Tapeta, and though he ran a narrow fifth behind My Boy Prince in the Shakertown (G2) in April, it has been only upward from there. He was second in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), beaten just a neck, then second again, beaten only three quarters of a length by Doncho in the Mighty Beau at Churchill. It took Doncho setting a new five-furlong track record to beat him.

Joe Shiesty made it back into the spotlight in the Tri-State Turf Sprint at Ellis on August 2, leading at every call. Two months later he tried the Woodford (G2) again, the race where he had so narrowly missed last year. There was no narrow miss this year – the stalking Doncho may have headed him midstretch, but Joe Shiesty told him no. He fought back, got his head in front, and won by half a length over No Nay Hudson, with Doncho another half length back in third. The horse who had gone under the radar as a short yearling at Keeneland, who had taken so long to come into his best, was now a graded-stakes winner … in the local course and distance prep for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.

Now, Joe Shiesty gets his first chance at a Breeders’ Cup race, the first starter for his trainer and co-owner Eric Foster. And perhaps, as a pedigree epilogue … maybe it’s a little clearer his pedigree shines for sprinting on turf. After all, he isn’t the only horse out of his dam at Keeneland for the Breeders’ Cup: Brickyard Belle, the morning-line second choice for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, is Joe Shiesty’s half-sister by Yaupon.

Breeders’ Cup Sprint: Little Thunder (30-1 morning-line odds)

It’s no surprise to see a horse come into the Breeders’ Cup off of a four-furlong bullet work. It’s a little more surprising to see that work recorded at Mahoning Valley Race Course in Youngstown, Ohio. And yet, that’s the case for Little Thunder, a lightly-raced four-year-old who proved his mettle with a runner-up finish in the Phoenix Stakes (G2) on October 2 at Keeneland.

Little Thunder’s beginnings were modest. He is a Florida-bred son of Noble Bird out of the unraced Tiznow mare Anyhow. Noble Bird was a Grade 1-winning son of Birdstone – he won the Stephen Foster (G1) in 2015 – but hasn’t had the big horse at stud. His second dam was a hard-trying sort, the Circular Quay mare Circular Rainbow, whose six wins all came in allowance and claiming company. Little Thunder went through a sales ring once, at the Ocala Breeders’ Sale in October 2023, but the bidding hardly got frenzied: he was a $12,000 RNA.

A year ago, Little Thunder hadn’t even seen the inside of a starting gate. Reaching the end of his sophomore year, he finally turned up on race day at Tampa Bay Downs, trained by Timothy Hamm for Blazing Meadows Farm and Thomas K. Equels. In that seven-furlong maiden special weight, all eyes were on Start to Win, an Arnaud Delacour trainee who had made five starts before and was stepping back into protected company after a runner-up effort for a $75,000 tag. But it was Little Thunder, one of only three debut runners in the eight-horse field, who set a pressured pace and cleared off in the stretch.

Even in maiden special weight company, it was hardly the kind of debut race that screamed that it would have a Breeders’ Cup contender emerge from the group. Even next out, Little Thunder had a bit of a hiccup, finishing second in a seven-furlong first-level allowance at Tampa Bay Downs on January 31. But, just two weeks later, Little Thunder showed suggestions that he might be something special. He pressed the pace in a six-furlong first-level allowance at Tampa Bay Downs before blowing clear in the final furlong, scoring by 7 ¾ lengths.

Trainer Timothy Hamm, who runs on the Ohio circuit most of the year and at Tampa in the winter, may be a regular on under-the-radar circuits, but he knows what to do with a Breeders’ Cup caliber horse. He has had one before, Dayoutoftheoffice in 2020. Dayoutoftheoffice graduated in an early-season Gulfstream Park juvenile maiden by open lengths – and Hamm sent her to the Spa for a class test. She won the Schuylerville (G3), then won the Frizette (G1), and ended the year a runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Just like Dayoutoftheoffice, Little Thunder got his class test at the Spa. After six and a half months out of the starting gate, Little Thunder returned in a six-furlong, second-level allowance at Saratoga. The public wasn’t sleeping: they bet him down to 3-2 favoritism in the seven-horse field. The public also wasn’t wrong: Little Thunder showed tactical speed, was clear midstretch, and dug in late to prevail by a head.

This effort earned Little Thunder an even tougher assignment October 2 at Keeneland – the Phoenix (G2), a qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The public was a little more wary, sending him off just shy of 8-1 – the fifth choice of eight. Little Thunder, however, was ready for another good effort. He stalked off the pace set by Mad House, got closer approaching upper stretch, and battled down the lane for the place, a length behind Nakatomi, a seven-year-old with far more experience at the graded level.

It didn’t earn him the Win and You’re in bid, but it earned Little Thunder enough confidence from his connections to try him in the Breeders’ Cup anyway. The waters get deeper Saturday, but what’s to say he can’t handle them? After all, he’s proof that a good horse can come from anywhere – and with just five starts behind him and no poor outings, the sky remains the limit.

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