2025 Tampa Bay Derby Betting Odds and Contenders Preview

The Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby, the flagship race at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida, happens Saturday, March 8. The 1 1/16-mile dirt race features a $400,000 purse, and offers 50-25-15-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers. The race virtually guarantees the winner a ticket to Kentucky, and other horses who run well often make it if they run well in another prep or two.

The race is the second and final points race of the Tampa Bay Downs meet, after the Sam F. Davis on February 8. Though winner John Hancock does not return to the fray, second-place Owen Almighty and sixth-place Naughty Rascal come back for another chance on the Derby trail.

However, the favorite is likely to be multiple Grade 1 win Chancer McPatrick, who makes his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Another horse likely to take strong interest is Patch Adams, who broke his maiden impressively at Churchill Downs in November but was beaten in the Southwest (G3) as the favorite.

Several Tampa Bay Derby winners have made good accounts during the triple crown season in the 21st century. Street Sense (2007) won the Run for the Roses, and Musket Man (2009) ran third behind Mine That Bird. Super Saver, third in the 2010 edition of the Tampa Bay Derby, won the Kentucky Derby. More recently, Tapwrit (2017) carried his momentum to a Belmont Stakes win, and Destin (2016) was nosed out in the final jewel.

Tampa Bay Derby 2025 Information

• Race Date: Saturday, March 8, 2025
• Track: Tampa Bay Downs
• Post Time: 5:34 p.m. Eastern Standard Time
• Distance: 1 1/16 miles
• Age/Sex: three-year-olds
• Where to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

Tampa Bay Derby Odds

These are the seven horses entered in the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby, including their posts, trainers, jockeys, and morning lines.

Tampa Bay Derby Prep Results

The seven Tampa Bay Derby entrants come from five different races. A pair come out of the other points race at Tampa Bay Downs, the listed Sam F. Davis Stakes. Owen Almighty, wearing blinkers for the first time, finished second to John Hancock after a protracted duel. Naughty Rascal stalked the pace early, but weakened to finish sixth in the field of ten.

Four others come out of graded-stakes races, all of which also offered Kentucky Derby qualification points. Chancer McPatrick was heavily bet in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on November 1, but came running too late and was sixth behind Citizen Bull. Hill Road, trying the dirt for the first time in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, rallied to finish third as a 61-1 outsider. Patch Adams was most recently fourth behind Speed King as the odds-on favorite in the Southwest on January 25 at Oaklawn, while Filoso was a weakening sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on November 30 at Churchill Downs.

Only one horse comes out of a non-stakes race. Brodeur won an allowance-optional claimer at Oaklawn on January 26, his first try at a two-turn distance. He tries stakes company for the first time in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Tampa Bay Derby Contenders

These are the seven horses entered in the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby from the rail out:

1. Owen Almighty: He is a consistent horse; though he was disqualified to fifth in the Pasco after interfering with a foe, he has never actually crossed the wire worse than second in a race. His two-turn debut in the Sam F. Davis wasn’t winning, but it wasn’t bad either. The problem is, he is mired at the fence in a field with a lot of other speed in the race. So, like he had to do in the Davis, he is going to have to do dirty work on the front end this time around, too.
2. Chancer McPatrick: A two-time Grade 1 winner, he is the class of the field. He was a well-beaten sixth in his two-turn debut in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, speed held very well that day, and there are other positives. He has had some chance to mature, he is bred for two turns on both sides, blinkers may have him a little closer to the pace, and even if he does settle off the pace again, he should have plenty of front-end enthusiasm to chase into late. The Chad Brown trainee also keeps Flavien Prat in the irons; not only is he the best big-race rider going right now, but his visits to Tampa have been fruitful.
3. Hill Road: He broke his maiden nicely at Leopardstown over a mile on grass, but was well beaten in a Group 1 try over seven furlongs next out. He came across the pond for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile next out, took virtually no interest, and rallied against the shape of the race to finish third, the only non-Baffert horse to break into that superfecta. Now with Chad Brown to stay in the states, he comes to another track where closers can be up against it, but gets a pace setup again, adds blinkers, and hails from a barn that often wins first off the lay.
4. Brodeur: He needed his debut at Churchill Downs, but has battled on the pace and won by narrow margins in each of his next two starts, a sprint at Oaklawn and then a route there. That suggests this Mark Casse trainee may be figuring things out, but there are questions. He’ll have to do dirty work on the pace again, this time against better foes. And, he will have to prove that he is the same horse over a fast track as he is over rain-affected going.
5. Filoso: A smart winner of a maiden dirt mile at Saratoga last August, he has raced twice since, both times in graded company. He rallied from the clouds for third in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) behind gate-to-wire winner East Avenue, though he came up flat in the Kentucky Jockey Club next out. That pair of 1 1/16-mile stakes tries gives him some seasoning, and the new blinkers could keep him a bit more in range for trainer Chad Summers, who excels with that move. He still needs to improve, but there’s enough upside at a price to consider him for exotics, in particular.
6. Naughty Rascal: With seven starts, he is the most experienced in the field. He will have to bounce back from a dull sixth in the Sam F. Davis, where he was up with the early pace before emptying out. The picture is mixed: the two starts before that suggest he can handle the love-it-or-hate-it Tampa footing, the near-outside draw is a plus, and he switches to high-percentage local rider Samy Camacho. On the other hand, with all the other speed in the field, he is going to have to figure out a way to rate more kindly and not get burned up in the pace.
7. Patch Adams: He was a buzz horse off of a 10 ½-length maiden win over seven furlongs at Churchill Downs in November. It was enough to make him the odds-on favorite in the Southwest, but after bobbling early and moving perhaps too early, he flattened out late. The pace is a concern for him, as it is with so many: he reunited with Florent Geroux, who rode him close to the lead in his first two starts, and the pace will be lively this time as well. There is upside, as he may have just bounced off of that last race or been cooked from the start, and the presence of some last-out Breeders’ Cup horses could help the price.

Tampa Bay Derby Past Winners Prep Races

Recent Tampa Bay Derby winners have come out of a range of races, levels, and even surfaces. Three of the last ten have come from the local prep for this race, the Sam F. Davis. Destin (2016) and Classic Causeway (2022) came out of victories in that race, and Tapwrit (2017) was last seen finishing second in that race.

Five other recent winners came out of stakes races, though only one of those came out of a victory. Helium (2021) was last seen winning the Display at Woodbine, and made his three-year-old debut in the Tampa Bay Derby. Carpe Diem (2015) was most recently second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Domestic Product (2024) was second in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Quip (2018) had been seventh in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, and King Guillermo (2020) came out of a third-place finish in the Pulpit at Gulfstream. Note that Helium came out of a win on Tapeta, and King Guillermo’s last start came on the lawn.

Two other recent winners made their stakes debut in the Tampa Bay Derby. Tapit Trice (2023) prepared for the race with an allowance win at Gulfstream, and Tacitus (2019) had gotten his diploma in a dirt mile at Aqueduct the previous November.

Tampa Bay Derby Undercard

The Tampa Bay Derby is the 11th of 12 races on Saturday’s flagship card of the Tampa Bay Downs meet. There are four other stakes on the card, three of them graded. Older turf fillies and mares take the spotlight in the $225,000 Hillsborough (G2). Sophomore turf route fillies shine in the $200,000 Florida Oaks (G3), three-year-old turf mile males contest the $125,000 Columbia, and older dirt males contest the $125,000 Challenger (G3).

The card offers big, classy fields all day long. So, it’s a perfect day to watch on FanDuel TV and place your bets through FanDuel and TVG!

Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs is located in Oldsmar, Florida, just a twenty-minute drive from the center of Tampa, Florida. There has been a track in Oldsmar since 1926. It first ran the West Coast Jockey Club meeting at Tampa Downs, referring to Tampa’s position on the west coast of the Florida peninsula. It has been called Tampa Bay Downs since 1980.

The track is a popular winter destination for both east coast and midwestern trainers. Now known for its meticulously groomed turf course, which was installed in 1998, Tampa Bay Downs has a dirt course that tends to be deeper and sandier than some other dirt courses. This means that it gets a horse fit and can sometimes favor horses-for-the-course.

As the Tampa Bay Derby has increased in importance, its purse has been trending upward as well. Originally a $50,000 race when it started in 1981, the purse was doubled to six figures in 1983 and reached its current $400,000 level in 2018, the year after Belmont winner Tapwrit took the crown.

Tampa Bay Derby FAQ

Q: When is the Tampa Bay Derby?

A: The Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby will be run on Saturday, March 8, 2025, with a scheduled post time of 5:34 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.

Q: Where is the Tampa Bay Derby?

A: The Tampa Bay Derby is run at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida.

Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Tampa Bay Derby?

A: Todd Pletcher has won this race six times, with all of those victories coming since 2004. His most recent win came in 2023 when Tapit Trice galloped to victory. He does not have an entrant in 2025. Among trainers entered in the race, Mark Casse leads with two wins: with Prospective in 2012 and Helium in 2021. Casse can make it three if Brodeur wins his stakes debut.

Q: Who is the favorite for the Tampa Bay Derby?

A: Chancer McPatrick, off a two-time Grade 1-winning campaign as a two-year-old, is the 8-5 morning-line favorite in his three-year-old debut. Off that campaign, and the fact that his trainer Chad Brown always gets betting action, he should be favored at post time. Watch action on 2-1 morning-line second favorite Patch Adams, who failed as a favorite last out but did impress in his maiden win and comes from another heavily bet barn, that of Brad Cox.

Q: Who is the best Tampa Bay Derby jockey?

A: No jockey has won this race more than twice; those two-time winners include Pat Day, Richard Migliore, Eibar Coa, Daniel Centeno, John Velazquez, and Jose Ortiz. Among those riders, only Jose Ortiz has an entry. He will ride Brodeur for Mark Casse.

Q: Who won the Tampa Bay Derby in 2024?

A: Domestic Product won the 2024 Tampa Bay Derby for trainer Chad Brown and jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Brown and Gaffalione reunite in 2025 with Hill Road. Brown also entered Chancer McPatrick, who will have Flavien Prat in the irons.

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