2025 Men’s College Basketball Tournament: Picks, National Champions, and Bracket Strategy

Filling out a bracket for the men's college basketball tournament is a national pastime. But what's the best way to go about it?

Here's some advice to ponder before filling out your 2025 bracket.

College Basketball Bracket Strategy

While you'll definitely need luck on your side to win a bracket pool, there are some things you can do to give yourself a better chance.

Understand Your Pool's Scoring Settings

As elementary as it sounds, knowing your pool's scoring settings is a must.

Not all bracket pools are the same. Some reward one point for getting a first-round pick right, two points for nailing a second-round pick and so on (points doubling each round). In that format, you get an eye-popping 32 points for picking the correct champion, making those later-round picks significantly more valuable than your first-round choices.

Other scoring settings aim for a more balanced approach that rewards later-round picks more than first-round ones but not as disproportionately as the aforementioned scoring system. Some systems give you bonus points for hitting on an upset pick.

Whatever your pool does, make sure you know the settings.

The Size of the Pool

A crucial factor to consider is the size of the pool you're entering.

If it's a smaller pool -- 25 or so total entrants -- you don't need to get that weird with your picks as it's unlikely too many people in the pool will deviate that far from the norm. But if you're in a large pool where there are 100-plus entries, it behooves you to go more outside the box. It'll be advantageous to pick a national champion that is not the chalk pick to cut down the nets.

In general, the larger the pool, the more you need to make an effort to be different.

Game Theory

That leads into another good tip: know what the masses are doing.

Having some idea about what the rest of the people in your pool are likely to pick is a big key to winning your pool. To win your pool, all you need to do is beat the other people in the pool -- not necessarily have an amazing bracket.

The pick distribution data at Yahoo! can be a big help in that regard. Per their numbers, 28% of people have Duke winning it all while 17% of brackets have Florida coming out on top. That's 45% of brackets with either the Blue Devils or Gators as the champ. Simply picking a champion other than those two will give you a decent leg up on the field.

Know Where to Get Weird

It's good to be weird with some picks -- but not too weird, especially with the team you pick to win it all.

A whopping 32 of the last 35 champions have been a 1, 2 or 3 seed, so don't get too crazy with your champion.

If you cherish being able to be the person who can say "I called that upset," the place to get weird is the early rounds. Over the past four tournaments, four 13 seeds have won a first-round game, including two in 2021. The 12-5 matchup is another go-to spot for upset picks. Since 2019, there have been eight instances of a 12 seed knocking off a 5 seed in the opening round.

Sleeper Teams to Consider

UC San Diego Tritons

UC San Diego is one of the trendy Cinderella picks for this year's tournament. But the Tritons aren't some feel-good underdog story -- they are legitimately good.

UCSD landed the 12 seed after winning the Big West Conference Tournament and regular-season titles. They're 30-4 and have lost just twice since Thanksgiving. KenPom's college basketball ratings have the Tritons ranked 36th overall.

A first-round matchup with Michigan -- a team that just ran through the Big Ten Tournament -- is a tough one, but the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have UCSD as just a 2.5-point underdog.

Liberty Flames

The 12th-seeded Flames love the three-ball. That gives them a lot of variance, and that's appealing to me.

Liberty owns the 15th-highest three-point attempt rate in the country, with a staggering 48.5% of their shots coming from beyond the arc. If the Flames go cold from deep, they probably won't be long for the tourney. But if they're hitting from downtown, they can be a handful for anyone.

A difficult opening-round game against fifth-seeded Oregon awaits, but if the threes start falling, Liberty can roll.

Arkansas Razorbacks

The SEC was a gauntlet this year, and there's a chance we see some of the lesser SEC teams start to look really good now that they're not facing Auburn, Florida, Alabama and Tennessee every week. Arkansas is one such team that might be ready to take off.

Entering February, the Hogs were 12-8 overall and 1-6 in SEC play. At that point, a tourney bid was a longshot. But Arkansas rallied down the stretch, going 7-4 over the next 11 games -- including 4-1 over their final five regular-season games -- to make the field.

In addition to being in good form, Arkansas has a stout defense (20th by KenPom) and an experienced coach in John Calipari. They also play fast (68th-fastest adjusted tempo), which could make them an uncomfortable matchup for some teams.

The Hogs open against Kansas in one of the premier first-round matchups.

National Championship Bracket Picks

The college basketball tournament betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook can help steer you in the right direction. Here are the 10 most likely champions by the odds.

Duke is the clear favorite by the betting odds, but as we touched on above in the game-theory section, it's likely best to steer clear of picking the Blue Devils to win it all -- especially in larger pools. Their +290 odds to win the national championship come out to implied odds of 25.6%. On Yahoo, Duke is the chosen champ in 28% of brackets, so there's not much value in backing them in your bracket.

The three teams listed behind Duke on the odds board -- Florida, Auburn and Houston -- all offer some leverage. The Gators' +390 title odds come out to an implied probability of 20.4% while the public is picking them to win the title in just 17% of brackets. Auburn's implied championship odds are 16.7%, and they're the champ in 14% of brackets. Houston's implied title odds are 13.3%, and they're being picked to cut down the nets in just 8% of brackets.

Given those numbers, Houston is the team I'm most interested in picking to win it all.

KenPom's ratings have the Cougars as the No. 10 offense and No. 2 defense. Houston's slow pace (310th) is a concern as low-possession games tend to be closer. But the Cougars are an elite team with a very realistic chance to win a championship and aren't an overly chalky title pick. They're one of the most undervalued national champion picks.

You can also download our FREE college basketball printable bracket.

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Which bets stand out to you for the tourney games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest men's college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.