2025 Blue Grass Stakes Betting Odds and Contenders Preview

The Keeneland spring meet gets underway this weekend, and Keeneland’s marquee Kentucky Derby prep, the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, happens Tuesday, April 8. It was originally scheduled for Saturday, but heavy rains forced Keeneland to reschedule weekend racing.

The race, one of the last preps of the Kentucky Derby season, drew a field of seven to compete for a $1 million purse (plus $250,000 in Kentucky-bred money, which everyone but River Thames is eligible for) and 100-50-25-15-10 Road to the Kentucky Derby points. This means the top two are virtually assured spots in the Run for the Roses, and any others who have run well in other preps might win their way in, too.

The field of seven will line up in the starting gate to compete for those spoils. Leading contenders include juvenile Grade 1 winners Chancer McPatrick and East Avenue, Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Owen Almighty, and Fountain of Youth (G2) second-place runner River Thames. However, with horses still liable to improve in the spring of their three-year-old season, a spoiler could be just around the corner!

Nineteen Kentucky Derby winners have used the Blue Grass as a prep for victory on the first Saturday in May, including 10 who won both races. Though the last Kentucky Derby winner who prepared in the Blue Grass was Street Sense (2007), Blue Grass winners have run well in recent years. Sierra Leone (2024) ran second in the Run for the Roses, Zandon (2022) finished third, and Essential Quality (2021) finished a close fourth. And, though Art Collector (2020) bypassed the Derby completely, he stayed good as an older horse and won the Pegasus World Cup (G1) in 2023!

Keep up with the latest Kentucky Derby odds and discover the top Kentucky Derby contenders as they are revealed.

Blue Grass Stakes 2025 Information

• Race Date: Tuesday, April 8, 2025
• Track: Keeneland
• Post Time: 5:52 p.m. Eastern Standard Time
• Distance: 1 1/8 miles
• Age/Sex: three-year-olds
• Where to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

Blue Grass Stakes Odds

This is the field for the 2025 Blue Grass Stakes, including trainers, jockeys, post positions, and morning-line odds for each entrant.

Blue Grass Stakes Prep Results

The seven entrants in the Blue Grass come out of five different races, all of which offered Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points.

The exacta in the Tampa Bay Derby resurfaces for the Blue Grass: that day in Florida, frontrunning Owen Almighty led at every call, holding 3 ½ lengths clear of a chasing Chancer McPatrick in the end. The second- and fourth-place finishers from the Fountain of Youth also ship north to Keeneland: Blue Grass morning-line favorite River Thames missed by a neck to Sovereignty in that last start, while Burnham Square was a mildly improving fourth, three lengths behind the winner.

Three others come from preps in other parts of the country. Render Judgment tracked the pace and chased on for second behind runaway winner American Promise in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. Admiral Dennis ran on for a belated sixth in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn last out, while East Avenue will try to bounce back from a well-beaten tenth as the odds-on favorite in the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds.

Blue Grass Stakes Contenders

These are the contenders in the Blue Grass Stakes, organized by post position:

1. River Thames: In three starts, he has hardly set a hoof wrong: he got close to the pace in all three starts, won his first two, and missed by a neck to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth, his stakes debut. Being mired on the rail may not be a great place, as he is down inside of a couple of speedy runners like Owen Almighty and East Avenue. But, if he can be mature enough to let those two go and find a way to switch out, not impossible in a field of just seven, he and Irad Ortiz might be able to work a trip that gives them first run.
2. Render Judgment: Never a factor in three previous Kentucky Derby prep races, he took a significant step up to run second in the Virginia Derby last out. That race came at 1 ⅛ miles, a positive sign for a return to that distance in this. However, he still needs to take a step up, and not regress from a race that was a very clear career best. That’s a lot to ask even with Sheldon Russell, who rode him for the first time in the Virginia Derby, getting on the plane to ride again.
3. Burnham Square: He found his way over the winter, breaking his maiden at Gulfstream in late December and following up with a score in the Holy Bull (G3) on February 1. However, he regressed just a little bit as the favorite in the Fountain of Youth, chasing on to finish fourth by three lengths. That said, it wasn’t a huge step back from his Holy Bull effort, and leaves open a chance for him to get back on track for this, especially since he can get a less wide trip this time around.
4. Owen Almighty: He came into his own at Tampa through the winter, though good races at Churchill Downs and Ellis suggest that he doesn’t need the unique Tampa Bay Downs footing in order to run well. He’ll probably have to handle another contested pace scenario, with East Avenue doing his best on the lead (and adding blinkers), and even the inside-drawn River Thames possible to join the fray. But, he handled contested paces at Tampa Bay Downs well. The strangest part is the rider: Irad Ortiz rode him the last four times, but he decamps to River Thames, raising some questions.
5. East Avenue: The good news is, he is a Grade 1 winner over this course. The bad news is, he took advantage of a cozy lone-speed scenario that day, and he’s not going to get that setup this time around. Even with upside to improve second off the lay, he still has yet to prove that he’s any more than a need-the-lead sort, and the likes of Owen Almighty and even perhaps River Thames make it such that he won’t get the trip he needs.
6. Chancer McPatrick: His second-place finish behind Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby wasn’t bad, all things considered: new blinkers got him closer to the pace, as was likely hoped, and he chased on for second behind a frontrunning horse for the course, a course where more forward runners tend to have an advantage anyway. The short stretch at Keeneland doesn’t do closers favors, but he keeps the blinkers and should be tactically placed behind a faster pace than he had last out. That all makes him a serious threat for trainer Chad Brown and Flavien Prat, some of the best big-race connections in the game.
7. Admiral Dennis: There was some buzz after his smart maiden victory last November at Churchill Downs, though he has been well beaten in his two stakes starts so far. The clean outside draw helps, since he is a horse who can make up ground late, and perhaps he can clunk up for a share if all of the possible speed decides to go gangbusters. But, without a major step up, that seems like his best possible result.

Blue Grass Stakes Past Winners Past Performances

In the ten years since the Blue Grass got back on dirt, six different races have produced winners of the race. Carpe Diem (2015) and Tapit Trice (2023) came out of victories in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), while Brody’s Cause (2016) rebounded from a seventh-place finish in that race. Two recent winners came from the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds: Sierra Leone (2024) won it, and Zandon (2022) was third. There are also two recent winners who both came out of third-place tries in the Fountain of Youth (G2): Good Magic (2018) and Vekoma (2019).

Two other recent Blue Grass winners came out of other points races. Essential Quality (2021) won the Southwest (G3), and Irap (2017) came out of a fourth-place try in the Sunland Derby (G3). Art Collector (2020), who won the COVID-delayed July edition of the Blue Grass, came out of an allowance win at Churchill Downs but did have one graded-stakes try as a two-year-old.

Blue Grass Stakes Undercard

The Blue Grass is the tenth of eleven races on the Tuesday card at Keeneland, which was rescheduled from Saturday. The card features five stakes races. Other major races on the card include the $650,000 Madison (G1) for older female dirt sprinters, the $500,000 Appalachian (G2) for sophomore female turf milers, the $400,000 Shakertown (G2) for older turf sprinters, and the $350,000 Commonwealth (G3) for older dirt sprinters.

Usually, Monday and Tuesday are quieter days on the racing calendar, but with Keeneland rescheduling its opening day to Monday, the week has gotten exciting! The opening-day card features the Ashland (G1), a 100-point Kentucky Oaks prep, and then top-class racing continues into Tuesday with Blue Grass day. With big fields all day, make plans to watch on FanDuel TV and bet with FanDuel all day long!

Keeneland

Lexington, Kentucky, is the home of one of the most important venues in worldwide horse racing—Keeneland. A group of horsemen opened the track in 1936, three years after the closure of the Kentucky Association track. Keeneland is unique in that it is not only home to a top-class racecourse, but also a sales ground from which top-class horses are purchased not just by US-based owners and trainers but from those as far afield as England, Ireland, France, and Dubai.

Racing fans flock to Keeneland for both top-class racing and excellent betting opportunities during two meets, held annually in April and October. Keeneland’s standing was highlighted again in 2009 when the Horseplayers Association of North America introduced its rating system which placed it right at the top at number one. Nestled in the heart of Kentucky horse country, it is also a designated National Historic Landmark.

Blue Grass Stakes FAQ

Q: When and where is the Blue Grass Stakes?

A: The Blue Grass (G1) (for sponsorship purposes, known as the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes) will be run on Tuesday, April 8, at 5:52 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time at Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky. The race is the tenth of eleven on Tuesday’s Keeneland race card.

Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Blue Grass Stakes?

A: Todd Pletcher owns the record with four wins in the Blue Grass Stakes. He can extend that record to five if River Thames wins in 2025.

Q: Who is the favorite for the Blue Grass Stakes?

A: River Thames, who just missed in the Fountain of Youth, is the morning-line favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz. However, watch action on Grade 1 winners Chancer McPatrick and East Avenue, as well as Tampa Bay Derby winner Owen Almighty; any of these horses could end up challenging River Thames for the top slot in the market.

Q: Who is the best Blue Grass Stakes jockey?

A: Bill Shoemaker leads all jockeys with six wins in the Blue Grass between 1959 and 1982. Among jockeys riding in the race in 2025, Luis Saez leads all riders in the 2025 edition with three wins, with Brody’s Cause (2016), Essential Quality (2021), and Tapit Trice (2023). He has the call on long shot Admiral Dennis for Brad Cox this year.

Q: Who won the 2024 Blue Grass Stakes?

A: Sierra Leone won the 2024 Blue Grass Stakes en route to a second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby and, ultimately, a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He did so for trainer Chad Brown and jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Gaffalione does not ride in the Blue Grass this year, though Brown brings Chancer McPatrick with Flavien Prat in the irons.

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