2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 8

Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season is officially in the books! Despite a loss, the San Francisco 49ers hold their place on top of our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric -- while the Denver Broncos remain at the bottom.

The New England Patriots' 29-25 upset win over the Buffalo Bills sees them move up one place, landing in 26th. Buffalo drops two spots to fourth.

The Philadelphia Eagles jump up three places after their impressive 31-17 win over the Dolphins and now sit in eighth.

After producing a masterclass in their 38-6 win over the Detroit Lions, the Baltimore Ravens move up five places and now reside in third.

The Minnesota Vikings improved to 3-4 with their 22-17 win over the 49ers, resulting in a seven-spot climb to 12th.

The team with the largest increase in Super Bowl odds, per numberFire's model, after Week 6? The Kansas City Chiefs -- up 11.1 percentage points.

The team with the largest decrease in Super Bowl odds? The Bills -- down 7.7 percentage points.

These Power Rankings will continue to shift weekly as the story of the season is written.

Here's where things stand heading into Week 8.

NFL Power Rankings (Week 8)

Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd

The Broncos remain at the bottom of our power rankings, but the Las Vegas Raiders are close to pulling Denver out of the basement. Vegas dropped one spot after their 30-12 loss to the Chicago Bears, who started rookie Tyson Bagent at quarterback. The Raiders' main issue is their defense. They rank 31st against the run, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, and 26th against the pass -- for an overall defensive ranking of 31st. Their offense isn't much better. Despite having two elite skill position players in Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas' offense ranks 25th overall, including a rushing offense that checks in dead last. The return of Jimmy Garoppolo should help, but his return alone won't be enough to solve all of the Raiders' current problems.

On the flip side of that contest, the Bears move up three spots and now sit in 28th. Offense remains Chicago's largest problem -- they rank 27th in overall O, per numberFire. But there is some hope. Their passing offense ranks 30th, but they have been effective on the ground, where they rank sixth. To capitalize on their strength, the Bears need their defense to keep them in close games. They rank 30th against the pass but 13th against the run. Since allowing 31 points to the Broncos in Week 4, Chicago has held their opponents to 20 or fewer points in three straight games. The Bears have a long way to go, but the last three weeks look much better than the first four did for the Bears.

Just when we thought we knew what this Patriots' season was going to be, they shocked everyone and defeated the Bills. I'm not sure what was more surprising -- the win or that the Pats' offense managed to score 29 points after totaling 30 points combined across their last four games. The win sees them move up only one spot, but it's a step in the right direction. Their offense still ranks 32nd overall, per numberFire, and they sit inside the bottom five in both the pass game and run game. This is a team that needs to improve in every phase of the game. A Week 8 road clash with the Miami Dolphins presents another difficult challenge.

The Atlanta Falcons picked up another narrow win in Week 7 and remain in 24th. Despite the victory, little has changed for Atlanta from a metrics perspective. On offense, their running game ranks 31st and their passing game ranks 21st for an overall ranking of 26th. Their defense ranks 15th overall, supported by a run defense that slots in second. The positive for the Falcons is that their odds of winning their division -- 36.7% -- are the 10th-highest in the NFL and are far and away tops among teams in the bottom tier of our power rankings. The NFC South provides them with a path to the postseason.

Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th

The New Orleans Saints' 31-24 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars resulted in a five-spot drop, the largest of the week. They now sit in 20th but have a decent-sized nERD edge (1.83) on the Tennessee Titans in 21st. After starting the season with two wins, New Orleans has lost four of their last five games. The Saints' strength remains their defense, which ranks 17th against the run and seventh against the pass for an overall ranking of seventh, per numberFire. The arrival of Derek Carr was supposed to lift New Orleans' offense, but it hasn't happened yet. Their passing attack ranks 24th, and they rank 22nd overall on O. Thanks to their placement in the NFC South, the Saints' odds of making the playoffs (37.5%) and winning their division (25.8%) remain achievable, but that is unlikely to happen without significant improvement on offense.

The Seattle Seahawks earned a 20-10 win over the Arizona Cardinals but dropped two spots to 18th. It's not about just getting a result; it's about how that result came to be. Against a Cardinals D that ranks 30th, Seattle managed to put up only 20 points. Arizona has been decent against the run, but they rank 31st against the pass -- yet the Seahawks generated just 219 passing yards, scoring zero touchdowns in the second half. If Seattle is a team that wants to contend, these are the types of games where they should be producing a dominant performance. The 'Hawks remain a middle-of-the-road team, with an offense that ranks 18th and a defense that sits 12th.

The Indianapolis Colts' thrilling 39-38 loss against the Cleveland Browns in Week 7 resulted in a four-spot jump up the rankings to 16th. Against a Cleveland defense that ranks first overall, the Colts moved the ball effectively on the ground and through the air. They generated 305 passing yards and 168 rushing yards, but their four turnovers were too much to overcome. The Colts remain a mid-tier side that is more effective on offense than defense. Their offense ranks 14th overall, led by a passing game that slots in 11th. Indy's defense ranks 20th and is weaker against the pass (19th) than the run (10th).

The Pittsburgh Steelers moved up one spot after their 24-17 win over the Los Angeles Rams. It was an impressive performance on both sides of the ball and a promising sign coming out of their bye. The Steelers held the fifth-ranked Rams' offense to just 17 points, and the Steelers' 24 points scored was their second-highest total of the season. The Steelers sit in a mini-tier of their own in 13th -- 0.47 nERD above the Buccaneers in 14th and 0.51 nERD below the Vikings in 12th. Their defense ranks sixth overall and is much more effective against the pass (fourth) than the run (27th). Their weakness is an offense that ranks 21st. If Kenny Pickett can improve, the opportunity is there for Pittsburgh to become a first-tier side.

Teams Ranked 12th to 1st

Mayhem in Minnesota! Entering Week 8, we welcome the Vikings to the top tier for the first time this season. After hitting a season-low ranking of 23rd entering Week 4, Minnesota cracks the top 12 thanks to a 22-17 upset win over the 49ers. Minnesota is trending in the right direction after a horrible start to the season. Their strength is their passing game, which ranks ninth, per numberFire, and they need to lean into it because the Vikes' rushing game is 25th. On defense, they remain an average unit (14th) that is better against the run (seventh) than the pass (17th). With the Detroit Lions in the way, Minnesota's odds of winning their division remain low (12.9%), but they have the look of a wild-card team, with the 10th-best odds of making the playoffs (62.9%).

The Dolphins have had two chances to beat an elite foe this season and have lost both times, falling most recently 31-17 to the Eagles. Miami dropped four spots and now sits in ninth. In their two games against other top-notch contenders (Buffalo and Philadelphia), Miami's offense has failed to show up while their weakness -- their defense -- has been exposed. In those two contests combined, they are scoring just 18.5 points and giving up 39.5 points. Until the Dolphins earn a signature win over a top-tier opponent, questions will remain. Their next chance to do so will come in Germany against the Chiefs in Week 9.

The Eagles bounced back from their first loss of the season and moved up three spots after their win over the Dolphins. They passed their first test against another contender and now sit in eighth with the third-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (8.8%). On offense, the Eagles rank first on the ground, per numberFire, and 15th through the air for an overall ranking of ninth. Their defense remains an average unit (16th overall) that is better against the run (ninth) than the pass (15th). After shutting down Miami's high-flying offense, Philly's D is trending in the right direction.

Facing their first big test since their Week 1 win over the Chiefs, the Lions got demolished by Baltimore. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong. They fell behind early and never recovered, finishing the game with just six points. They move down two spots to fifth. The good news for Detroit is their upcoming schedule is very kind -- they don't play a team ranked inside the top 10 in these power rankings until Week 17, (Dallas Cowboys). Per numberFire, the Lions have the fourth-best odds of making the playoffs (98.0%), third-highest odds of winning their division (86.4%), and seventh-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (6.6%).

Have a day, Baltimore! In their first clash this season against a team currently ranked inside the top 10, the Ravens played a nearly flawless game. They shredded a Lions defense that ranks 18th, per numberFire, and Baltimore completely shut down a Lions' offense that ranks fourth. The Ravens have the look of a true contender -- they are elite on both sides of the ball, ranking third on offense and second on defense. The AFC North remains extremely competitive, with no team currently sitting below .500, but Baltimore has already faced all three of their divisional opponents on the road this season -- only home games remain. The Ravens' schedule includes several difficult matchups the rest of the way, including matchups with the Jaguars, 49ers, and Dolphins. The path won't be easy, but as it stands, the Ravens seem to have what it takes to challenge for the top spot in the AFC.

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