2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 7

Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season is officially in the books! The San Francisco 49ers remain on top of our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric -- while the Denver Broncos remain at the bottom.

The New York Jets' 20-14 upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles sees them jump up one place, landing in 18th. Philadelphia drops one spot to 11th.

The Cleveland Browns jump up five places after their shocking 19-17 win over the 49ers and now sit in 10th.

The Bengals earned their second win a row with a 17-13 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. They move up one place and now reside in 23rd.

The Detroit Lions improved to 5-1 with their 20-6 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, resulting in a one spot climb to 3rd.

The team with the largest increase in Super Bowl odds, per numberFire's model, after Week 6? The Buffalo Bills -- up 2.8 percentage points.

The teams with the largest decrease in Super Bowl odds? The Eagles -- down 2.7 percentage points.

These Power Rankings will continue to shift weekly as the story of the season is written.

Here's where things stand heading into Week 7.

NFL Power Rankings (Week 7)

Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd

Despite earning a narrow 21-17 win over the New England Patriots, the Las Vegas Raiders fell four spots and now sit in 30th. Las Vegas' offense, which ranks 22nd in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, has been respectable, but their defense is a major weakness. They rank 31st against the run and 23rd against the pass for an overall ranking of 30th, per numberFire. The 17 points they conceded to New England's 32nd-ranked offense tied the Patriots' second-highest total of the season. The good news? A Week 7 meeting with the Chicago Bears, who are expected to be without Justin Fields, provides Las Vegas with an excellent chance to record a positive defensive performance.

The Washington Commanders move up one spot following their 24-16 win over the Atlanta Falcons. An efficient first-half performance from Sam Howell was enough for Washington to hold off Atlanta and earn a much-needed bounce-back win. The problem for Washington is their passing offense still ranks 32nd, per numberFire, and just above the Patriots. On the ground, they rank 10th, but their defense is consistently forcing them into negative game scripts. They rank inside the bottom eight against both the run and the pass defensively for an overall ranking of 26th.

On the other side of that contest, the Falcons fall three spots, tied for the second-largest drop of the week. Facing that vulnerable Washington defense, Atlanta only managed to score 16 points and are now averaging just 16.5 points per game this season. Despite having a roster that features several elite skill position players, the Falcons aren't putting points on the board. After using the eighth overall pick on running back Bijan Robinson, their rushing offense ranks 30th, per numberFire. Despite having a top-ten pick at both wide receiver and tight end, their passing offense ranks 23rd. Their defense ranks 15th, per numberFire, but until they find a way to consistently move the ball, they will have a difficult time consistently winning games.

The Bengals' 17-13 win over Seattle was much needed, but it wasn't enough for them to escape the bottom tier. After a solid start to the game on offense, they managed just three points in the second half and needed their defense to get them over the line. After showing improvement against the Arizona Cardinals last week, Cincinnati's offense regressed this week and now ranks 24th, per numberFire. The bye week is coming at the right time for the Bengals, who will need to be a much-improved side for their next two games against the 49ers in Week 8 and Bills in Week 9.

Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th

Week 6 provided us with our first glimpse of the Minnesota Vikings' offense without Justin Jefferson, and it was not pretty. Facing a Bears' defense ranked 29th in numberFire's rankings, Minnesota managed to score just 19 points, 7 of which came from their defense, earning a one-score win. The result is a three-spot fall to 19th. Before the Jefferson injury, the Vikings were a middle-of-the-road team on both sides of the ball. Without him, they are in an extremely tough spot. Their offense and defense now rank 19th, per numberFire. Next up? A clash with the 49ers on Monday Night Football.

The Jets backed up their Week 5 win over the Broncos with a massive 20-14 upset victory over the Eagles in Week 6. They moved up one spot to 18th and have some positive momentum heading into their bye. The Jets' passing offense ranks 27th, but their rushing offense ranks 14th and is heading in the right direction with Breece Hall handling a larger role. If Hall can stay healthy and continue to be the elite playmaker he was as a rookie before his injury, the Jets have a formula that can keep them in games. Their defense ranks 13th, per numberFire, despite facing a gauntlet of difficult signal callers. Coming out of their bye, they will face the New York Giants, Los Angeles Chargers, and Raiders. Hope is still alive in New York.

The Houston Texans moved up three places following their 20-13 win over the New Orleans Saints. Houston remains well ahead of schedule in their rebuild; their offense ranks sixth, per numberFire, supported by a passing offense that ranks fourth. Their defense ranks 27th and has been especially vulnerable against the pass where they rank 28th. Over their next four games, the Texans face the Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bengals, and Cardinals. With a slight improvement in their defense, all four of those are winnable contests.

The Buccaneers' throwback uniforms did little to help them in Week 6. They fell two spots after their 20-6 loss to the Lions. Coming out of their bye, Tampa Bay failed to score a touchdown and has now been severely outclassed by the two top-tier teams they've faced so far this season. They still sit in 13th, just outside the top tier, but their wins have come against the Vikings, Bears, and Saints. The Buccaneers' strengths are their passing offense, which ranks ninth at numberFire, and their run defense, which ranks third. When their passing offense misfires like it did against the Lions, they are in trouble offensively, because their running games ranks 20th. For now, the Buccaneers go as Baker Mayfield goes. They face the Falcons in Week 7.

Teams Ranked 12th to 1st

The Eagles fell one spot after their loss to the Jets and now sit in 11th. Facing an elite defense for the first time since their Week 1 meeting with the Patriots, Philadelphia's offense struggled, generating just 14 points and turning the ball over in a crucial moment to swing the game in New York's favor. The Eagles still have the third-highest odds of winning the Super Bowl (14.6%), per numberFire, but their odds of winning the NFC East decreased by 13.9 percentage points, the second-largest drop this week. Philadelphia's current weaknesses are their passing offense, which ranks 14th, and their pass defense, which ranks 27th. Those vulnerabilities will be put to the test in a Week 7 game against the Miami Dolphins, whose passing offense ranks first, per numberFire.

The Browns see the largest jump of the week after their upset win over San Francisco, moving up five spots to 10th. Cleveland enters the top tier almost entirely on the strength of their defense. They rank second against the run, per numberFire, and first against the pass, for an overall ranking of first. They are the best defense in the league by a significant margin with a defensive rating that is nearly double that of the next-best team, the Dallas Cowboys. The issue for Cleveland is that their offense is almost as bad as their defense is good. Their rushing offense ranks 26th and their passing offense ranks 28th for an overall ranking of 29th. To become a true contender come playoff time, the Browns have to improve on offense.

The Cowboys bounced back from their Week 5 loss to the 49ers with a 20-17 win over the Chargers in primetime on Monday night. As a result, they move back up one spot to sixth. Dallas' win, combined with the Eagles' loss saw their odds of winning their division jump by 14.1 percentage points, the second-largest increase of the week. Dallas' defense ranks second overall, per numberFire. To move further up the ranks they need their offense to improve. Surprisingly, it's the Cowboys' run game that is holding them back. Their passing offense ranks 13th, but their run game ranks 22nd. Coming out of their Week 7 bye, Dallas has a favorable schedule to improve on the ground; outside of a Week 9 clash with Philadelphia, they will face the Rams, Giants, Panthers, and Commanders in four of their next five games.

Welcome to the top three, Lions! After taking a small step back following their Week 2 loss to the Seahawks, Detroit has been on a steady climb up the rankings. Despite dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball, the Lions have been dominating their opposition. Over the past four weeks, they have an average margin of victory of 15.0 points. The Lions' best asset is their passing offense, which ranks third, per numberFire. Elsewhere they been solid but not spectacular; their run game ranks 11th while their defense ranks 7th against the run and 10th against the pass. The Lions have the second-best odds of making the playoffs (98.8%) and winning their division (94.5%), per numberFire, but their odds of winning the Super Bowl (7.6%) are just seventh-best. A Week 7 showdown with the Baltimore Ravens provides them with another opportunity to earn another win against a quality opponent.

The 49ers' shocking loss to Cleveland didn't knock them off the throne. They remain the top-ranked side by a considerable margin (4.78 nERD) after the Bills and Chiefs both earned less-than-convincing wins over the Giants and Broncos, respectively. The 49ers offense ranks second, behind only Miami, and their defense ranks fifth, but they are now dealing with injuries to several stars -- most notably running back Christian McCaffrey. A Week 7 clash with the Vikings provides an excellent opportunity for a bounce-back victory.

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