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2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 3

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere

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Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season is officially in the books! The Dallas Cowboys now hold the top spot in our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric -- while the Houston Texans remain at the bottom.

The Cincinnati Bengals' struggles continued in Week 2 as they fell six spots after their three-point loss to the Baltimore Ravens, landing in 16th place.

With their 27-17 win over the Chicago Bears in Week 2, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers saw the largest jump, moving up 12 positions to 12th overall.

The Atlanta Falcons rose seven spots after their narrow 25-24 win over the Green Bay Packers and now sit in ninth.

The team with the largest increase in Super Bowl odds -- per numberFire's model -- after Week 2? The Buffalo Bills -- up 4.4 percentage points.

The team with the largest decrease in Super Bowl odds after Week 2? The Philadelphia Eagles -- down 3.1 percentage points.

These Power Rankings will continue to shift weekly as the story of the season is written.

Here's where things stand heading into Week 3.

NFL Power Rankings (Week 3)

Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd

Rank
Team
nERD
Playoff Odds
Division Odds
Super Bowl Odds
32 Houston Texans-7.024.3%2.7%0.1%
31 Chicago Bears-5.25.1%2.4%0.0%
30 Las Vegas Raiders-4.5813.6%5.4%0.2%
29 Carolina Panthers-4.115.7%0.9%0.1%
28 New York Giants-4.1110.7%1.7%0.2%
27 Arizona Cardinals-3.826.8%2.1%0.2%
26 Indianapolis Colts-2.9528.4%15.6%0.4%

Is it time to panic in Chicago? The Chicago Bears' tumble down the rankings continued after their loss to the Buccaneers in Week 2. The Bears now sit in 31st, 7 spots below where they began the season. What was supposed to be the start of a new era has quickly become more of the same. Chicago's odds to make the playoffs dropped 12.3 percentage points after Week 2, and they now have the second-lowest odds to make the playoffs (5.1%). With the Kansas City Chiefs on deck in Week 3, things are likely to get worse before they get better.

The New York Giants avoided absolute disaster with their 31-28 comeback win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2, but they still sit in 28th, one spot behind Arizona. While the comeback was exciting, the fact that they were in such a position in the first place is not a positive sign for their rest-of-season outlook. Saquon Barkley's ankle injury and a Week 3 clash with the San Francisco 49ers doesn't make for much short-term optimism for the Giants.

The New England Patriots join the bottom tier after their 24-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Losses to Miami and Philadelphia are understandable, but New England's schedule remains difficult for most of the season. If the Pats are going to turn things around, a win against the New York Jets in Week 3 is a must.

On a positive note, the Tennessee Titans secured a 27-24 overtime victory against the Los Angeles Chargers. The win didn't change their ranking, which remains at 23rd, but their odds of both making the playoffs and winning their division improved. Of teams in the bottom 10, Tennessee has the best odds to win their division (19.4%) and the second-best odds to make the playoffs (31.1%).

Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th

Rank
Team
nERD
Playoff Odds
Division Odds
Super Bowl Odds
22 Minnesota Vikings-1.4628.5%16.9%1.2%
21 Seattle Seahawks-1.4142.8%16.3%1.5%
20 Los Angeles Chargers-0.9833.3%16.3%1.6%
19 Denver Broncos-0.8716.8%6.5%0.5%
18 Jacksonville Jaguars-0.6771.6%62.4%4.0%
17 Washington Commanders-0.4419.3%3.5%0.3%
16 Cincinnati Bengals0.0254.8%19.7%4.5%

The Chargers were on the wrong side of that overtime clash with Tennessee and dropped two spots to 20th, eight spots below where they started the season. It's getting late early in Los Angeles, their defense ranks second-worst by numberFire's opponent-adjusted model. A Week 3 showdown with the Minnesota Vikings sees two teams that began the season with high expectations fighting to avoid an 0-3 start. It may be a bit too early to call that game a must-win for both sides, but it certainly feels that way. At the moment, the Chargers are 1.5-point road underdogs in that contest.

The Washington Commanders' thrilling 35-33 come-from-behind win over the Denver Broncos sees them move up two spots to 17th overall, 10 spots above where they started the season. After wins over the Cardinals and Broncos, a Week 3 clash with the Bills will be a big test for this new-look Washington side. Under Eric Bieniemy, the Commanders' offense now ranks 18th by numberFire's metrics. The Chiefs offense, Bieniemy's former team, ranks 17th.

The Bengals' offense looked a bit better in Week 2, but their loss to the Ravens saw them fall six spots to 16th overall, 11 positions below their ranking entering the season. Their odds of making the playoffs now sit at just 54.8% -- down 11.2 percentage points from where they were entering Week 1. With Joe Burrow uncertain for Week 3's matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati could find themselves even further down the rankings next week.

Speaking of the Rams, Los Angeles falls one spot after their gutsy performance in a 30-23 loss to the 49ers. The Rams' start to the season has been impressive, but they still have the lowest odds of making the playoffs (15.0%) and winning their division (3.1%) of any team in this middle tier.

Teams Ranked 12th to 1st

Rank
Team
nERD
Playoff Odds
Division Odds
Super Bowl Odds
12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.8352.3%19.9%1.7%
11 Green Bay Packers0.8749.2%31.8%1.9%
10 Cleveland Browns1.2750.7%20.8%2.1%
9 Atlanta Falcons1.9370.4%34.8%2.9%
8 New Orleans Saints2.7875.3%44.4%4.5%
7 Miami Dolphins3.576.5%43.1%5.6%
6 Philadelphia Eagles4.8478.9%39.5%6.8%

A new challenger approaches? Let's welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the top tier!

After their 27-17 win over the Bears, the Buccaneers are now 2-0 and sit 12th overall, up 17 spots from where they began the season. With Baker Mayfield under center, the Buccaneers' pass offense ranks second, per numberFire's metrics. Combined with a defense that ranks seventh overall, Tampa Bay is off to an excellent start. A Week 3 meeting with the Eagles on Monday Night Football gives Tampa Bay a chance to prove -- in primetime -- that they are for real.

Another team making their debut in the top tier is the Falcons. Their win over the Packers has them sitting ninth overall. Unsurprisingly, their run offense ranks second, per numberFire, led by rookie sensation Bijan Robinson. Atlanta also boasts the eighth-best defense. The game plan is clear for the Falcons, and so far, no one has been able to stop it. A Week 3 clash with the Detroit Lions sets the stage for a highly entertaining contest. As it stands, the Lions are 3.0-point home favorites.

The Dolphins jumped up four spots after their win over the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. Their offense ranks first, per numberFire, supported almost entirely by their exceptional passing attack, which also ranks first. Their run offense by itself ranks 23rd. Miami's run defense ranks last, while their pass defense ranks 10th. The Dolphins' strategy is clear -- they want to pass the ball and defend the pass. So far, so good. In Week 3 they face a Broncos' pass defense that ranks 28th, per numberFire. Get your popcorn ready.

The Chiefs rebounded nicely to secure a 17-9 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kansas City sits in fourth overall, but they have the best odds to win the Super Bowl (12.5%).

The Bills also bounced back from their Week 1 loss with a convincing 38-10 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. They moved up three spots to third overall, the same position they started the season in.

After their 30-10 destruction of the Jets in Week 2, the Cowboys moved up one spot to take the top overall position away from San Francisco.

Dallas' offense and defense rank seventh and first, respectively, by numberFire’s metrics. Despite that, the Cowboys still rank just fourth in odds to win the Super Bowl (10.7%) behind the Chiefs, 49ers, and Bills -- sharing a division with Philly is a big reason why. Dallas will face the Cardinals and Patriots in Weeks 3 and 4 before a must-watch showdown with San Francisco in Week 5.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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