With Week 15 officially in the books, we are entering the final phase of the 2023 NFL regular season! The San Francisco 49ers remain on top of our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric -- while the Carolina Panthers remain at the bottom.

The Indianapolis Colts' 30-13 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers sees them move up six spots to 11th. Pittsburgh dropped one spots to 20th.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers jumped up five places after their 34-20 win over the Green Bay Packers and now sit in 13th.

After their 31-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Dallas Cowboys move down one place and now reside in 3rd.

The Seattle Seahawks move up two spots to 21st after their 20-17 upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia remains in 12th.

The team with the largest increase in Super Bowl odds, per numberFire's model, after Week 15? The Miami Dolphins, up 2.5 percentage points.

The team with the largest decrease in Super Bowl odds? The 49ers, down 3.6 percentage points.

These Power Rankings will continue to shift weekly as the story of the season is written.

Here's where things stand heading into Week 16.

NFL Power Rankings (Week 16)

Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd

The Panthers earned their second win of the season but remain in last place in our rankings. The margin between Carolina and the next closest team narrowed slightly, but they are still a full 2.0 nERD behind the New York Giants in 31st. The Panthers' 9-7 win over the Atlanta Falcons had few positives outside of the result itself. Playing in bad weather, Bryce Young threw for just 167 yards with neither team earning more than 300 total yards in the game. The Panthers' offense ranks 31st, per numberFire's models, and their defense ranks 25th. Still, if this team is going to improve, it has to start somewhere, and this was a victory over a Falcons side that was playing for the division and a playoff appearance.

The Denver Broncos are the only team in the bottom tier whose odds of making the playoffs, per numberFire, are greater than 1.0%. They had a chance to earn a crucial win in primetime against the Detroit Lions and came up short, losing 42-17. The result saw their odds of making the playoffs decrease by 18.9 percentage points. Denver's defense, which had been much improved, let them down in this one. The unit now ranks 29th overall, per numberFire, and ranks inside the bottom 10 against both the run and the pass. Now, the Broncos odds of making the playoffs sit at just 18.2%. To have any chance of earning a Wild Card they will need to run the table against the Patriots, Chargers, and Raiders. The schedule provides them a path, but they remain a long shot to salvage their season.

The Las Vegas Raiders began Week 15 with a bang on Thursday, defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 63-21. With the win, they move up three spots to 24th. Their offense ranks 26th, per numberFire, and their defense ranks 17th. They are now 3-3 since firing Josh McDaniels. Sitting at 6-8, the Raiders' odds of making the playoffs are extremely low (0.7%), but they will have a chance to impact the playoff picture. The rest of the way they face the Chiefs, Colts, and Broncos -- three teams will plenty left to play for.

Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th

In a week full of shocking results, the NFL saved the best for last. The Seahawks' fourth-quarter comeback win over the Eagles had a massive impact on the playoff picture at the top and bottom of the NFC. With the win, the Seahawks' odds of making the playoffs increased by a staggering 54.7 percentage points, more than double the second-largest increase this week. Seattle sits in 21st in our rankings and is still a team with plenty to fix if they want to make the playoffs, but this win earned them the chance to do so. Their odds of making the playoffs now sit at 68.1%. Just one win separates fourth from 11th in a crowded NFC, and Seattle remains right in the middle of that pack at 7-7. The good news for the Seahawks is the tough part of their schedule is finally over. After facing the 49ers twice, the Cowboys, and the Eagles over the last four weeks, they face the Titans, Steelers, and Cardinals the rest of the way. A path to the postseason is there for Seattle.

The Atlanta Falcons are heading in the opposite direction after their abysmal 9-7 loss to the Panthers in Week 15. With the loss, their odds of making the playoffs decreased by 41.0 percentage points, the largest decrease of the week. Where do I even start? Despite being handed a golden opportunity with elite skill position players, a weak NFC South, and a favorable schedule, the Falcons' odds of making the playoffs sit at just 7.5%. After a fumble, Arthur Smith decided to take more work away from Bijan Robinson. The result? 7 total points against a Carolina run defense that ranks 30th, per numberFire. The Falcons are expected to make another quarterback change heading into Week 17 in an attempt to save their season. The rest of the way they face the Colts, Bears, and Saints. A favorable schedule? Sure, but once you lose to the Panthers, it's difficult to call any schedule favorable.

The Buccaneers earned a crucial and impressive win on the road in Lambeau Field. The victory sees them move up five spots in the rankings, the second-largest increase of the week. They now sit in 13th. With the win their odds of making the playoffs increased by 22.8 percentage points, and their odds of winning the NFC South increased by 27.0 percentage points. A Buccaneers' offense that was written off by many to start the season currently ranks 11th, per numberFire's metrics, and is heavily supported by a passing game that ranks 10th. Baker Mayfield has done an excellent job and has Tampa Bay in a position to win a division title. There is still work to be done. A Week 16 matchup against the Jaguars, who may be without Trevor Lawrence, looms large.

Teams Ranked 12th to 1st

The Eagles had a golden opportunity to seize control of the NFC East after the Cowboys' loss to the Bills, and they failed to do so. Even after the loss, the Eagles' odds of winning the NFC East sit at 90.3%, but their three-game losing streak has created an opening for Dallas. The good news for Philadelphia is they face the Giants twice and the Cardinals once over the final three weeks of the season. Even for a team searching for answers after a loss to Seattle, that is a schedule they can feel great about. The bad news for Philadelphia is that after three consecutive losses, they appear to be a clear tier below the 49ers in the NFC, raising serious doubts over their ability to reach their ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl. The next time the Eagles face an elite opponent will be in the playoffs, and they need to be a drastically improved side by then. As it stands, their odds of winning the Super Bowl sit at 11.1%, per numberFire's models. That's still fifth-best in the league.

The Eagles' and Cowboys' losses were the Lions' gain. After a difficult four-week stretch, they entered this one in need of a big performance, and they got one. With the win, the Lions moved up one spot to 7th. Currently, Detroit is in a mini tier of their own in terms of nERD. They are well behind (2.4 nERD) the Chiefs in 6th and decently ahead (0.95 nERD) of the Saints in 8th. They have the look of a "best of the rest" side as we approach the final stretch of the regular season. A Week 17 clash with the Cowboys provides them with a chance to earn a signature win ahead of the playoffs. That game could also have a massive impact on the NFC's playoff picture.

The Buffalo Bills continued to show that they are among the best teams in the NFL despite what their record says. They absolutely dominated a Cowboys side that had looked unstoppable for the past five weeks. Scoring 31 points on Dallas' defense was impressive, but holding Dallas' offense to just 10 points, 7 of which they earned by playing their starters well into the fourth quarter when the game was already decided, was the real accomplishment. Since their Week 6 bye, the Cowboys offense was averaging an astounding 38.1 points per game. Buffalo's offense now ranks third, per numberFire, and their defense ranks 11th. The problem is that they still have work to do to even reach the playoffs. Their odds of making the postseason improved by 18.8 percentage points this week and now sit at 65.5%. Buffalo has the look of a true contender, but their odds of making the playoffs are worse than Seattle's. The good news for the Bills is their schedule eases up over the next two weeks with games against the Chargers and Patriots. They finish the season with a Week 18 clash against the Dolphins that could have monumental implications for both teams involved -- as well as the entire NFL postseason.

For Dallas, the Eagles loss on Monday night bailed them out. They remain in a similar situation as they were last week. They are an elite side that has clinched a playoff spot, but remain longshots to win the NFC East (9.8%) and have the sixth-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (5.9%). If they can overcome those odds and win their division, they will have a much easier path to the Super Bowl. A Week 16 showdown with the Dolphins provides the Cowboys with an opportunity to immediately bounce back and erase the memories of their Week 15 defeat. That said, a road game in Miami is rarely an easy task, and Dallas is currently listed as a 1.5-point underdog, per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Another loss would give the Eagles another opportunity to slam the door shut on the NFC East and lock Dallas into multiple road games on their path to the Super Bowl.

Another week, another impressive win by the 49ers. San Francisco now sits well above the rest of the field on top of our rankings with a 3.34 nERD gap between them and the Dolphins in second. The 49ers rank first in offense by a wide margin and rank seventh in defense. They have the best odds to win the Super Bowl (30.5%), per numberFire, and are now heavily favored (-1000) to earn the No.1 seed in the NFC, per the NFL Conference Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. In Week 16 they face a Baltimore Ravens side that has the second-highest odds of winning the Super Bowl (18.0%). If they cruise to another easy victory, their margin over the league could be even larger next week.

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