2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 15
With Week 14 officially in the books, we are entering the final phase of the 2023 NFL regular season! By the smallest of margins, the San Francisco 49ers return to the top of our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric -- while the Carolina Panthers remain at the bottom.
The Denver Broncos' 24-7 win over the Los Angeles Chargers sees them move up three spots to 21st. Los Angeles droppedd two spots to 22nd.
The Cleveland Browns jumpe up three places after their 31-27 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars and now sit in 16th.
After their 30-6 loss to the New York Jets, the Houston Texans move down four places and now reside in 15th.
The Philadelphia Eagles move down three spots to 12th after their 33-13 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
The team with the largest increase in Super Bowl odds, per numberFire's model, after Week 14? The Baltimore Ravens, up 7.2 percentage points.
The team with the largest decrease in Super Bowl odds? The Eagles, down 5.1 percentage points.
These Power Rankings will continue to shift weekly as the story of the season is written.
Here's where things stand heading into Week 15.
NFL Power Rankings (Week 15)
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
The New York Giants' thrilling 24-22 win over the Green Bay Packers on Monday night Nootball sees them move up one spot to 30th. The Giants have now won three games in a row and are enjoying a mid-season resurgence with Tommy DeVito under center. New York still ranks 29th on offense and 16th on defense, per numberFire's models, and their odds of making the playoffs sit at 0.02%. This winning streak is unlikely to result in anything besides a worse draft pick, but it is a great reminder of why we love sports; anything is possible. DeVito has taken the city by storm and turned a lost season into a great story. With the New Orleans Saints up next, the winning streak could continue.
What a week for New York! Adding to the list of unexpected outcomes in Week 14, Zach Wilson had a career day under center, leading the Jets to a 30-6 victory over the Texans. The win broke a five-game losing streak and was just the second time this season the Jets scored more than 22 points in a game. With Zach Wilson, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall all producing while New York's defense did what it always does, it was a great reminder of what could have been for the Jets this season. It's too little too late with the Jets' odds of making the playoffs sitting at 0.0%, per numberFire's models, but provides New York with hope for the future.
In a week full of upsets, none was more surprising than the Tennessee Titans' come-from-behind victory over the Miami Dolphins on Monday. Even with the win, the Titans' odds of making the playoffs sit at just 1.2%, but it was a monumental moment in the young career of Will Levis, who finished with 327 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. The Titans' offense now ranks 19th, and their defense ranks 25th. They are playing for the future, and this result was an important one for Levis, whose previous career-high for passing yards in a game was just 262. Next up for Tennesse is a showdown with a Texans team that sits two wins above them in the AFC South.
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
The Denver Broncos entered this week with little room for error in their quest to make the playoffs, and they picked up a much-needed 24-7 win over the Chargers. The win increased their odds of making the playoffs, per numberFire's models, by 28.4 percentage points, the third-largest increase of the week. Denver's odds of making the playoffs now sit at 37.1%. In addition to their chance at a Wild Card spot, they are suddenly just one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. This week's game against the Detroit Lions is a huge one for Denver. After that, they face the Patriots, Chargers (who will be without Justin Herbert), and Raiders. The Lions are coming off a loss and look far more vulnerable than they did before Thanksgiving. The path is there for the Broncos.
The legend of Jake Browning continued to grow in Week 14 after the Cincinnati Bengals defeated the Indianapolis Colts, 34-14, for their second win in a row. The result sees them move up two spots to 20th and keeps their postseason hopes alive. The win increased the Bengals' odds of making the playoffs by 20.7 percentage points, the fourth-largest increase of the week. Their odds of doing so now sit at 26.1% as they compete for a wild card spot in a very crowded AFC. The Bengals have now scored 34 points in back-to-back games and their offense ranks 12th overall, per numberFire. Their defense ranks 26th. The good news for the Bengals is their upcoming schedule isn't a particularly challenging one for their defense. The rest of the way they face the Vikings, Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns. To have any chance at a playoff spot, they will likely need to go 3-1 or better.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29-25 win over the Atlanta Falcons had a large impact on both teams' odds of making the playoffs. With the win, the Buccaneers' odds of making the playoffs increased by 28.6 percentage points and their odds of winning the NFC South increased by 21.5 percentage points. The Falcons odds of making the playoffs dropped by 15.3 percentage points, and their odds of winning the NFC South dropped by 25.3 percentage points. With the Buccaneers, Saints, and Falcons all tied at 6-7 atop the division, every game is highly consequential for these teams -- division games even more so. As it stands, numberFire's models have the Buccaneers (42.0%) as most likely to win the NFC South over the Falcons (34.2%) and Saints (23.8%). Whichever team wins will likely have the privilege of hosting either the Eagles or Cowboys in the playoffs. Good luck!
Have the Browns found the missing piece? Joe Flacco rolled back the clock in Week 14, throwing for 311 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception in a 31-27 win over the Jaguars. With the win, Cleveland's odds of making the playoffs increased by 12.6 percentage points and now sit at 88.7%. As important as the win was, the way they got the victory may be more important. Cleveland has been a team with an elite defense searching for an answer on offense for most of the season. They rank second in defense, per numberFire, and 28th in offense. With games against the Bears, Texans, Jets, and Bengals the rest of the way, a playoff appearance seems likely to happen. If Flacco can maintain this level of play, combined with Cleveland's elite defense, the Browns can begin to dream a little bigger.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
The Eagles followed up a dreadful loss to the 49ers in Week 13 with an equally as disappointing loss to the Cowboys in Week 14. After winning five in a row, including victories over the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Cowboys, they have now lost back-to-back games to their two closest competitors for the NFC crown. For the second week in a row, Philadelphia's defense was exposed and their offense did little to help. The combined scoreline over the past two weeks is 75-32. The Eagles' defense now ranks 27th, per numberFire, and their offense has fallen to 7th. The good news for the Eagles is the difficult part of their schedule is behind them and their odds of winning the NFC East still sit at 90.4%. With games against the Seahawks, Giants, Cardinals, and Giants again the rest of the way, Philadelphia has a perfect month of opponents to get things turned around before the playoffs.
The Packers' loss to the Giants on Monday night was devastating for their odds of making the playoffs, which dropped by 32.0 percentage points. Their odds of making the playoffs now sit at 43.3%. The good news for Green Bay is that their schedule still provides them with a path to winning out and earning a Wild Card spot. The bad news is that once you lose to the Giants, it is fair to question if you're capable of doing so. Over their next three games, the Packers face the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Vikings before a Week 18 game against a suddenly surging Bears team.
In a week full of results with massive playoff implications, none was bigger than the Buffalo Bills 20-17 win over the Chiefs. The win increased Buffalo's odds of making the playoffs by 36.4 percentage points, the largest increase of the week. Buffalo's odds of doing so now sit at 46.7%. Buffalo's chase for a playoff spot is especially significant because, among teams on the outside looking in, the Bills have the best odds of winning the Super Bowl (2.1%). On most metrics besides their record, they are a contender. Their offense ranks fourth, per numberFire, and their defense ranks 13th, and they have the fifth-highest point differential (+104). The Bills are the only team whose odds of winning the Super Bowl are greater than 1.0% and odds of making the playoffs are lower than 98.3%. Simply put, if Buffalo gets in, they can make some noise. Their schedule will make that difficult, they face the Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins the rest of the way and may need to go 4-0 to get in.
After their thrilling 37-31 overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams, the Ravens now have the second-highest odds of winning the Super Bowl (20.6%) behind only the 49ers (34.1%). A large part of that is Baltimore's new standing as the favorite to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Their odds of doing sit at -115, per the NFL Conference Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, well ahead of the next closest team, the Dolphins (+310). A bye and home-field advantage is a big edge, the Ravens now have the inside track to earning both. With a defense that ranks first, per numberFire, and an offense that ranks sixth, they have the look of a true contender.
Despite their massive win over the Eagles, the Cowboys relinquished the top spot on our Power Rankings to the 49ers. The difference between the two teams? 0.01 nERD. To say we are splitting hairs here would be an understatement. The 49ers rank first in offense and fifth in defense while the Cowboys rank second in offense and third in defense -- both are a clear cut above the Ravens in third. Despite their similarities, the 49ers have a massive edge on Super Bowl odds (34.1% to 5.0%). A large part of that is the projected playoff paths of these two teams. The 49ers (+110) are favorites to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the advantages that come with it. The Cowboys remain underdogs (+240) to win their own division due to the strength of the Eagles's schedule (-320 to win the NFC East). As it stands, the 49ers would get a bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs while the Cowboys would likely have to win three consecutive road games. Dallas is, of course, capable of doing so, but it is a far more difficult path.
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