2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 12

With Week 11 officially in the books, we are past the halfway point of the 2023 NFL season! The Dallas Cowboys now sit on top of our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric -- while the Carolina Panthers return to the bottom.

The Green Bay Packers' 23-20 win over the Los Angeles Chargers sees them move up five spots to 14th. Los Angeles drops five spots to 19th.

The Cowboys jump up three places after their 33-10 win over the Panthers and now sit in first.

After their 21-17 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Kansas City Chiefs move down two places and now reside in sixth.

The Chicago Bears move up three spots to 24th after their narrow 31-26 loss to the Detroit Lions. Detroit remains in seventh.

The team with the largest increase in Super Bowl odds, per numberFire's model, after Week 11? The Baltimore Ravens, up 3.8 percentage points.

The team with the largest decrease in Super Bowl odds? The Cincinnati Bengals, down 4.9 percentage points.

These Power Rankings will continue to shift weekly as the story of the season is written.

Here's where things stand heading into Week 12.

NFL Power Rankings (Week 12)

Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd

A glimmer of hope remains alive in Denver after their 21-20 win over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. The Denver Broncos have now won four games in a row to improve to 5-5. Their defense has improved in recent weeks, but they still rank 25th against the pass, per numberFire's metrics, and 31st against the run for an overall ranking of 32nd. Their offense grades out more favorably. They rank 20th through the air and 13th on the ground for an overall ranking of 18th. Denver's odds of making the playoffs are slim (4.7%), but that's the highest of any team in the bottom tier. To keep that hope alive, Denver simply has to continue winning, though the margin for error in the AFC is essentially zero. Next up? A clash with the Cleveland Browns.

After back-to-back wins to begin the Antonio Pierce era in Las Vegas, the Raiders suffered their first loss under Pierce in Week 12, falling 20-13 to the Miami Dolphins. Despite the loss, the Las Vegas Raiders kept the game close throughout, resulting in a one-spot fall down the Power Rankings to 25th. Holding Miami to 20 points can be seen as a win for a Las Vegas defense that now ranks 22nd overall, per numberFire. Only scoring 13 points on offense is a larger concern -- the Raiders' rushing offense now ranks 32nd. With their odds of making the playoffs sitting at 1.3%, the Raiders season is all but over, and their schedule from here is daunting. Over the next four weeks, they face the Chiefs, Vikings, Chargers, and Chiefs again.

The Bears almost pulled off a monumental upset against the Lions, but a late collapse resulted in another loss. The game was a microcosm of recent seasons in Chicago, with glimpses of brilliance both on the ground and through the air from Justin Fields despite ultimately leading to another loss. The good news is that Fields looked good in his first game back from a thumb injury. The bad news is that this is still a team that is a ways away from competing. Chicago's pass defense ranks 32nd, per numberFire, which allows teams to avoid their 3rd-ranked run defense. Their rushing offense also ranks 3rd, but their passing offense ranks 25th. Not being able to defend the pass or pass the ball effectively is a difficult situation to be in.

Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th

Another week, another crushing loss for the Chargers. At some point, things have to turn around for this franchise, but this past week against Green Bay was not that point. Los Angeles' three-point loss the Detroit in Week 10 was understandable -- the Lions are an excellent team -- but this is the type of game they needed to have, and they found a way to lose it. With the loss, the Chargers' odds of making the postseason now sit at just 10.8%. For a team that was one half away from a playoff win last season, it's a difficult position to find yourself in. Los Angeles' offense ranks seventh, per numberFire, heavily supported by a passing game that ranks third -- but their defense ranks 31st.

The Seattle Seahawks' 17-16 loss to the Los Angeles Rams didn't change their position in the Power Rankings, but it did result in their odds of making the playoffs dropping by 13.0 percentage points. Seattle lost both their games to the Rams this season, and their odds of making the playoffs now sit at 50.5%. Seattle remains a middle-of-the-road team on both sides of the ball. Their offense ranks 15th, per numberFire, and their defense ranks 16th. The problem for Seattle's rest-of-season outlook is their schedule. Over the next three weeks, they face the 49ers twice, the Cowboys, and the Eagles.

The Packers' five-spot jump up the rankings was the largest of the week. They now sit in 14th, but a massive nERD gap has developed between the first tier and the second tier. The Houston Texans, who sit in 12th, are a full 1.90 nERD above the Packers in 14th -- similar to the gap between Green Bay and the Rams in 20th. Despite the win, the Packers are still in a difficult position. Their odds of making the playoffs (26.6%) rank 18th. Over the next two weeks, they face the Chiefs and Lions before their schedule gets considerably easier. To keep their playoff hopes alive, they will likely need to win one of their next two.

Teams Ranked 12th to 1st

Another week, another win for the Texans. They move up one spot after their 21-16 victory over the Arizona Cardinals . With the win, their odds of making the playoffs now sit at 75.1%. After back-to-back weeks of Houston's offense carrying their defense to a victory, the Texans' defense repaid the favor. Against a vulnerable Cardinals defense, C.J. Stroud tossed three interceptions, and Houston managed just 21 points, but their defense allowed only six points in the final three quarters. If Houston's defense can continue to improve, the Texans will quickly become a dangerous team. Houston's offense ranks 10th, per numberFire, but their defense ranks 23rd. In Week 12, Houston has a monumental division showdown with the Jacksonville Jaguars that could end up determining who wins the AFC South. The Texans have a very favorable schedule after this week and can become favorites to win their division if they defeat Jacksonville on Sunday. Their meeting is a must-watch.

In a rematch of last season's Super Bowl, the Eagles got the win, defeating the Chiefs 21-17. In a reversal of the Super Bowl, the Eagles overcame a 10-point deficit to get the victory and now sit at 9-1. The Eagles' offense ranks 6th, per numberFire, and their defense ranks 15th. Despite being eighth in the Power Rankings, they have the best odds of winning the Super Bowl (22.0%), per numberFire's models. After an easy schedule to open the season, the Eagles have faced three contenders (Miami, Dallas, and Kansas City) in their last four games and passed each test. It doesn't get any easier for Philadelphia over the next three weeks, though, as they face the Bills, 49ers, and Cowboys. If the Eagles finish the season as the top seed in the NFC, no one can say they didn't earn it.

The Buffalo Bills got a much-needed 32-6 win over the New York Jets to end their two-game losing streak and keep their postseason hopes alive. Buffalo sits at 6-5, one game behind the Dolphins in the AFC East and in a three-way tie for sixth in the AFC. Despite that, their odds of making the playoffs sit at just 22.4%, the 19th-best. The reason is the Bills schedule, which is incredibly difficult starting in Week 12. In their final six games, the Bills face the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins. The margin for error is incredibly slim for the Bills.

The Cowboys' win over the Panthers sees them climb three spots to the top of our Power Rankings. The Cowboys offense ranks fourth, per numberFire, supported by a passing attack that ranks sixth. Their defense ranks third overall and is better against the pass (fourth) than the run (ninth). Despite their position on top of the rankings, the Cowboys' odds of winning the Super Bowl (8.0%) rank fifth, well below Philadelphia. Their odds of winning the division sit at just 6.3%, which sets them up for a difficult postseason that likely includes multiple road games. The other issue for Dallas is that, unlike the Eagles, they have not passed any of their tests against other contenders, losing to both the 49ers and Philadelphia in their only two opportunities. Dallas faces Washington and Seattle over the next two weeks before a stretch of games against the Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, and Lions. If Dallas is a true contender, they will have every opportunity to prove it in December.

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