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2023 NFL Power Rankings: Divisional Round

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere

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2023 NFL Power Rankings: Divisional Round

Super Wild Card Weekend lived up to its name. After three days of double-headers influenced by some wild weather, the NFL field is down to eight teams.

The Houston Texans upset the Cleveland Browns 45-14, with several of their rookies acing their playoff debuts. They will carry plenty of confidence into a road showdown with the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday.

In one of the coldest games in NFL playoff history, the Kansas City Chiefs kept the Miami Dolphins offense in check, earning a 26-7 win. The victory earned them a trip to Buffalo, where Patrick Mahomes will play the first road playoff game of his career.

The upset of the weekend belonged to the Green Bay Packers, who took the opening kickoff against the Dallas Cowboys and never looked back. Their 48-32 win was the most impressive performance of the weekend, but an even tougher test awaits with a trip to San Francisco on Saturday.

The Detroit Lions' 24-23 win over the Los Angeles Rams was their first postseason victory since 1992, ending one of the longest streaks in the NFL. Having already made history, they have their sights set on something more and will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday.

The Buffalo Bills took care of business at home, earning a 31-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. They will face a familiar opponent in the Divisional Round, but this time they will not be at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Buccaneers capped off the weekend with their 32-9 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. For much of the season, the NFC South looked like the weakest division in the league, while the NFC East looked like one of the strongest. Entering the Divisional Round, the former has one representative, and the latter has none.

This week, we are taking a look at the eight remaining playoff teams and where they sit in our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric.

The team with the best Super Bowl odds, per numberFire's model, heading into the Divisional Round? The San Francisco 49ers (34.9%).

The team with the second-best Super Bowl odds? The Baltimore Ravens (24.1%).

Here's where things stand heading into the Divisional Round.

NFL Power Rankings for the Divisional Round

The Bottom Three

Rank
Team
nERD
Super Bowl Odds
Offensive Rating
Defensive Rating
12 Houston Texans1.90.00813th14th
11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers2.420.01511th15th
8 Green Bay Packers4.150.0195th23rd

Sitting at 12th overall in our Power Rankings, the Texans are now the lowest-ranked team still in the playoffs. That will mean little to them. This young team has been defying expectations all season and can already mark this season as a resounding success.

The Texans’ offense dismantled the Browns’ defense on Wild Card Weekend, but they remain the lowest-ranked offense in the playoffs, per numberFire. That is mostly due to their running game, which ranks 29th. Their passing game ranks eighth overall, fifth-best among the remaining teams. Their defense ranks 14th overall and is better against the run (2nd) than the pass (16th).

Looking ahead, Houston faces a tough test on the road against a Ravens team that's better than them in both phases of the game. The Texans are currently listed as 9.5-point underdogs. Their odds of winning the Super Bowl, per numberFire, sit at 0.8% -- last among the remaining teams.

The Buccaneers are the only other remaining team that does not rank inside the top 10 in either offense or defense. They rank 11th overall, 11th on offense, and 15th on defense.

Tampa Bay’s win over Philadelphia was impressive, but the question remains -- was that victory more about the Buccaneers or an Eagles team that entered the playoffs in horrific form?

Facing the Lions on the road will be a much greater challenge. The good news for the Buccaneers is their passing game, which ranks ninth in numberFire's model, will get to face a Lions pass defense that's 30th. The bad news is the Buccaneers’ pass defense, which ranks 21st, will have to stop the Lions’ fourth-ranked passing game.

As it stands, the Buccaneers are 6.5-point underdogs this weekend. Their odds of winning the Super Bowl sit at 1.5%, which is seventh among the remaining teams.

Next up is the Packers, who are in the bottom three remaining teams but are a clear tier above the Texans and Buccaneers. The Packers rank eighth overall, supported heavily by their offense, which ranks fifth. Green Bay’s passing game ranks third overall, an incredibly impressive feat in Jordan Love’s first season as an NFL starter.

The Packers’ weakness is their defense, which ranks 27th against the run and 19th against the pass for an overall ranking of 23rd, per numberFire. That weakness will be tested in San Francisco this weekend, as the 49ers’ offense ranks first overall, the only team ranked ahead of the Cowboys.

The Packers are 9.5-point underdogs against San Francisco in a game that features the highest total (50.5) of the weekend. Per numberFire, their odds of winning the Super Bowl sit at 1.9%, sixth among the remaining teams.

The Middle Three

Rank
Team
nERD
Super Bowl Odds
Offensive Rating
Defensive Rating
7 Detroit Lions4.510.0854th25th
5 Kansas City Chiefs6.720.1210th4th
4 Buffalo Bills10.570.1663rd6th

The Lions are the first team in the middle tier, but they have more in common with the teams ranked below them than those above. According to nERD, Detroit is closer to the Buccaneers in 11th (2.09) than the Chiefs in fifth (2.21).

They are structured very similarly to the Packers, with an elite offense that ranks fourth and a vulnerable defense that ranks 25th. Of the eight remaining teams, the Lions' defense is the lowest-ranked unit on either side of the ball.

That said, Detroit will enjoy two key advantages the Packers will not. They will be at home, and they will be facing a team ranked lower than them. The Lions are 6.5-point favorites this weekend against Tampa Bay, and their short-term outlook is bright.

Long term, the Lions' defense will need to improve if they want to challenge for a Super Bowl. Their odds of winning the Super Bowl sit at 8.5% -- a clear tier above the three teams ranked below them but also a tier beneath the Ravens, 49ers, and Bills.

The Chiefs are ranked fifth overall and mark a clear shift in our rankings to teams that are inside the top 10 on both sides of the ball. Kansas City barely makes that cutoff. Their offense ranks 10th, but their defense, which ranks fourth, elevates their overall metrics.

Like Detroit, the Chiefs are in a mini-tier of their own. They sit clearly above the four teams ranked below them but aren't at the same level as the three teams ranked above them. They are closer on nERD to the Rams in 10th (3.64) than the Bills in fourth (3.85).

Kansas City has a significant postseason experience edge on the remaining teams, but they will have to do something this weekend that they have not done in the Mahomes era -- win a road playoff game. As it stands, they are 2.5-point underdogs to Buffalo. Their odds of winning the Super Bowl sit at 12.0%, fourth among remaining teams.

The Bills round out the middle tier, but they are similar to the two teams ranked above them than the five ranked below. The Bills’ offense ranks third overall and their defense ranks sixth. They are the only remaining team that ranks inside the top six on both sides of the ball.

Buffalo's largest advantage is their running game, which ranks first overall. One weakness for the Bills is that their defense ranks well overall but is not particularly elite in either aspect of the game. They rank sixth against the pass and 19th against the run. How the Bills’ run defense holds up against a Chiefs’ ground game (11th) will be a big factor on Sunday.

The Bills’ defense is also dealing with injuries to several players as they approach this weekend. Playing at home will help, but this is a clear step up in competition after their Wild Card win over Pittsburgh. Buffalo's odds of winning the Super Bowl sit at 16.6%, third among remaining teams.

The Top Two

Rank
Team
nERD
Super Bowl Odds
Offensive Rating
Defensive Rating
2 Baltimore Ravens12.60.2418th1st
1 San Francisco 49ers13.180.3491st8th

The top two in our Power Rankings remain unchanged. The Ravens and 49ers will both make their postseason debuts this weekend after enjoying a bye. The two sides are not separated by much and are ranked closer to each other than the next-best competitor.

Baltimore sits in second overall. They rank eighth on offense and first on defense. On offense, they rank inside the top 10 in both phases but are better on the ground (fourth) than through the air (10th). On defense, their first overall ranking is heavily supported by their pass defense, which ranks first by a wide margin. Their run defense is ninth.

The Ravens’ strengths match up extremely well with the Texans. Houston’s offense is significantly better in the passing game than on the ground, which plays directly into Baltimore’s hands. Baltimore is worse defending the run, but Houston’s rushing game ranks 29th. C.J. Stroud has overcome an elite defense once already, but the Ravens are a step up from Cleveland, and they will be playing at home in this one.

One concern for Baltimore is their overall lack of postseason experience. Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in his previous four postseason starts. Facing a young Houston team full of confidence, the Ravens would benefit from a fast start on Saturday. Baltimore’s odds of winning the Super Bowl sit at 24.1%.

The 49ers remain on top of our power rankings. They are the opposite of Baltimore, ranking first overall on offense and eighth on defense. They are elite in both phases of the game, with a rushing attack that ranks second and a passing game that ranks first.

Their defense is 17th against the run and fifth against the pass. That is an ideal split considering the strength of the Packers’ offense is their passing game. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers first-ranked offense taking on Green Bay’s 23rd-ranked defense is the largest margin between two units in action this weekend. Getting to face the second-worst remaining defense, per numberFire, is an ideal situation for the 49ers to begin their postseason run.

The Packers did just overcome a Cowboys defense that ranks ninth, one spot behind the 49ers. With Love under center, slowing down the Packers will be difficult, but the 49ers have the firepower to win a shootout even if Love continues to excel. The 49ers enter the weekend as 9.5-point favorites with the best odds of winning the Super Bowl (34.9%).


If you're betting on any of Saturday, January 20th's NFL playoff action, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Playoffs No-Sweat Same Game Parlay. Check the promotions page for more information.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.


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