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2023 Breeders' Cup – Top Picks for Day 1

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2023 Breeders' Cup – Top Picks for Day 1

The 2023 Breeders' Cup features 14 races across two days.

It all begins with Future Stars Friday on Friday, November 3rd.

Here are notes and the top picks for Day 1.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Picks

Crimson Advocate

Broke her maiden at the second time of asking in a valuable stakes contest at Gulfstream Park. That earned her a berth at Royal Ascot where she duly followed up in the Group 2 Queen Mary, with a subsequent Group 2 scorer and listed stakes winner in second and third respectively. Absence taken on trust but has to be taken seriously.

No Nay Mets

Won a valuable stakes on debut before finishing down the field in the Group 2 Norfolk at Royal Ascot. Got back on track with success in another pair of stakes once returned to the US. Very speedy sort from the gate. From same barn as Crimson Advocate.

Tiger Belle

Won twice in her native Ireland before landing the Group 3 Prix d’Arenberg at Longchamp in France. Two of those beaten in the French race won next time out, including the runner-up at the same level.

Big Evs

Speedy type who’s tasted success twice in Group races in Britain. Found the open-age Nunthorpe too hot two starts back, before landing dominating the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster last time. This will be his first time going round a turn.

Givemethebeatboys

Irish-trained colt who won first two starts, including Group 3 Marble Hill at the Curragh in May. Never out of the first four on next three starts, including in Group 1 company the last twice. Plenty of stamina on distaff side of pedigree. May have to settle for a minor role once again.

Starlust

Has won three times this season. Won Group 3 Sirenia on Kempton’s synthetic surface before finishing fifth in the Middle Park at Newmarket. Only raced at 6f.

Shards

Earned his diploma at the third attempt. Came worse off in a three-way photo in a listed stakes at Keeneland last time, against a pair reopposing here. Work to do.

Cherry Blossom

Filly by No Nay Never. Has developed into a useful sort, landing a maiden win in Ireland before hitting the board upped in class on next three starts. Will need another step forward to win and could find this distance sharp enough.

Amidst Waves

Another runner for George Weaver. Completed the hat-trick by a nose in a listed stakes at Saratoga in August. Came off second best in a three-way photo in a similar contest at Keeneland last time.

Valiant Force

Highly tried on first two starts, runner-up in a listed stakes at the Curragh on debut, before winning the Group 2 Norfolk at Royal Ascot at odds of 150/1. Failed to confirm that in the Prix Morny at Deauville sole start since and has a bit to do to confirm the Ascot form.

Slider

West Coast trained runner who’s won last two of his three starts. Won a maiden special weight on the dirt at Del Mar before switching to the Santa Anita turf last time and scoring in a listed stakes. Produced a bullet workout recently.

Committee of One

Runner-up on first two starts in maiden special weights before going one better in a listed stakes at Keeneland last month. Came form off the pace then to get up by a nose and should find a strong pace aiding his cause.

Hedwig

Won a maiden special weight at Ellis Park on debut. Possibly found the 6½f after being ground down late on in a listed stakes at Kentucky Downs last time.

Asean

Finally off the mark in a nursey handicap at Cork at the fifth time of asking. Followed up in listed stakes at the Curragh. Failed to strike a blow in the Group 3 Cornwallis at Newmarket last time.

April Vintage

Only raced at 5f, winning on second start at Del Mar on the turf. Third behind Slider in listed stakes at this track last time.

Verdict

This will be quick. BIG EVS has proven he can cope with such demands and stands out on achievements to date compared to the rest. Crimson Advocate has an absence to overcome but her form has stood up to scrutiny. Givemethebeatboys is of interest at a likely bigger price.


Juvenile Fillies Picks

Candied

Is a perfect two from two. Won a maiden special weight over 6f at Saratoga by less than a length on debut. Pitched straight into Grade 1 company in the Alcibiades over a longer distance at Keeneland next time, she overcame inexperience to follow up. She’s open to improvement and is a major player.

Jody’s Pride

Won both starts sprinting, landing a maiden special weight by 10½ lengths at Saratoga before following up in a listed stakes at Belmont at the Big A. Stretching out in distance here doesn’t look a problem on pedigree. Clearly has plenty of ability and is of interest stepping into graded company.

Scalable

Maiden after two starts. Fifth in a maiden special weight at Saratoga first time out. Hiked in class in the Grade 2 Chandler at this track, finishing second to the front-running Chatalas.

Where’s My Ring

Went close in a pair of maiden special weights on the dirt. Stretched out in distance and hit the board on turf debut last time in Grade 3 Surfer Girl at this track last time. This was her second preference.

Omaha Girl

Is a perfect two from two on the dirt. Made a winning debut at Monmouth before a fifth-placed finish in a stakes contest there on turf, both times sprinting. Stretched out to 1m as she made every yard a winning one in another stakes at Gulfstream last time. More will be needed here.

Chatalas

Made a winning debut before finding the Del Mar Debutante too hot second time out. Quickly resumed winning ways at this track and over this distance in the Grade 2 Chandler last month when not for catching from the front.

Tamara

Daughter of Beholder who backed up the good impression she made when winning on debut by following up in the Del Mar Debutante by 6¾ lengths. She looked out of the top drawer that day, barely coming off the bridle and drawing clear easily in the stretch. Is an exciting prospect and her chance is there for all to see.

Esprit Enchante

Twice-raced filly. Fifth on debut in a maiden special weight at Del Mar. Held on to win by a nose at this track last month. Stretches out in distance and significant improvement required at this level.

Brightwork

Began career with four wins, including twice at graded level. Won the Spinaway at Saratoga but disappointed in the Alcibiades at Keeneland last time. Needs to bounce back.

Accommodate Eva

Was fitted with blinkers when earning her diploma at Keeneland at the third attempt last time, going wire-to-wire. This requires a further chunk of improvement.

Life Talk

Got off the mark at the second time of asking in good style in a maiden special weight at Saratoga. Ran third behind Just F Y I in the Frizette last time. Represents top connections and can’t be ruled out on the back of her impressive success two starts back.

Just F Y I

Another unbeaten from two starts. Successful on debut by a head at Saratoga before stretching out in distance to land the Frizette on a sloppy track at Belmont at the Big A. Conditions look sure to different but she’s well worth her place in the line up.

Alys Beach

Won a maiden special weight on debut at Saratoga. Hit the board in Grade 1s the last twice, but ultimately well held in both, including when setting the pace last time.

Verdict

Three unbeaten fillies head the contenders. TAMARA is bred to be the part and can land her second Grade 1 on the spin. Candied had to battle last time and may have to settle for second best on this occasion. Just F Y I has bags of potential but hasn’t been helped by the draw.


Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Picks

Buttercream Babe

First two starts came at Kentucky Downs, making a winning debut before a close third in stakes company next time. Ran in the Grade 3 Surfer Girl here last month, beaten just a neck by Dreamfyre. Another step forward required.

Flattery

Opened her career with a perfect two from two, including the listed Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf. Wasn’t beaten far in third in a steadily-run Grade 3 Surfer Girl here latest, but has form to reverse with the pair that beat her.

Buchu

Has gradually improved with racing, culminating in thumping successes on last two starts. Forged clear in a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs before showing a good turn of foot from off the pace in the Grade 2 Jessamine at Keeneland last time.

Laulne

Claimed a hat-trick when previously in the care of Yann Barberot in France, including the Group 3 Six Perfections at Deauville. Placed on final two outings. Likely to face fast turf for the first time but has joined a barn with a fantastic record with European shippers.

Content

Won twice from six starts in Ireland. Was a big price but proved suited by the 1m distance when landing the Group 3 Staffordstown Stud at the Curragh last time. Hard to discount any runner from this barn.

Porta Fortuna

Began her career with a hat-trick and resumed winning ways in the Cheveley Park at Newmarket last time. Has to prove herself effective beyond 6f, but that shouldn’t be an issue on pedigree and fast ground suits. Oisin Murphy retains the ride.

Gala Brand

Won first two starts at Saratoga, stretching out in distance second time up for the Grade 3 With Anticipation. Hit the board in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo at Belmont at the Big A last time and reopposes with a pair that beat her there. May need some luck with her come-from-behind style.

Life’s An Audible

Earned her diploma at the second time of asking whilst sprinting. Went back routing and finished well to be second in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo at Belmont at the Big A last time. Seems quite versatile tripwise and can’t be discounted.

Carla’s Way

Took money on debut and duly scored. Got back on track after a disappointing effort at Royal Ascot with second in the Group 3 Prestige at Goodwood in very deep ground. Well positioned to win the Grade 2 Rockfel at Newmarket last time, with a subsequent Group 1 winner back in third. Interesting.

Austere

Made no mistake in a maiden special weight at Ellis Park on debut and followed up in a listed stakes at Kentucky Downs in comfortable style. Improvement needed and is going the right way. She’s by 2017 Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn.

She Feels Pretty

Another one who made a winning debut at Ellis Park. Stretched out in distance and was an impressive winner of the Natalma at Woodbine next time. The form of that doesn’t look anything special but it was hard not to be visually taken. Her sire won the Mile round here back in 2014.

Hard To Justify

Came from off the pace to make a winning debut at Saratoga in July. Wasn’t seen until just over two months later when landing the Grade 2 Miss Grillo at Belmont at the Big A, proving determined. Is open to further improvement and trainer Chad Brown has won this race five times.

Dreamfyre

Began her career winning two sprints on the dirt, including the Grade 3 Sorrento at Del Mar in August. Went routing on the turf in the Grade 3 Surfer Girl here last time and took her unbeaten record to three. This will be a tougher field to dominate, particularly from this wide gate.

Les Pavots

A three-time winner in France. Won the Group 2 Prix du Calvados at Deauville two starts back, with Laulne back in third. Backed up that effort when third in the Prix Marcel Boussac at the beginning of last month. Any runner has to be respected for this barn.

Go With Gusto

First past the post on debut at Woodbine. Finished third in the summer there next time behind Carson’s Run. Will be facing her own sex this time if getting a run.

Mo Fox Givin

Has shown potential both starts, winning on debut at Colonial Downs before a second-placed finish in an allowance at Churchill Downs. Gets the distance and seems versatile.

Verdict

PORTA FORTUNA is taken to back up her British Group 1 success last time. Carla’s Way has had her recent form boosted but may have to settle for second best. Buchu showed a good turn of foot last time and can prove best of the home team.


Breeders' Cup Juvenile Picks

The Wine Steward

Made a promising start to career by winning first three starts, including two stakes contests. Stretched out in distance for the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland last month and put up a good fight to finish behind Locked. Should be thereabouts.

Prince of Monaco

A comfortable winner of his first two starts, including the Grade 3 Best Pal. Was made to work hard to see off entrymate Mirahmadi in the Del Mar Futurity last time, though was giving 5 Ibs to that rival.

Wine Me Up

Made a winning debut at Del Mar in September. Had no answer when second to entrymate Muth in the American Pharoah here next time. Looks the third choice of Baffert’s runners.

Timberlake

Looked a real talent when earning his diploma at the second attempt in a maiden special weight at Ellis Park. Ran with credit when second in the Hopeful at Saratoga next time, sticking to his task and faring best of those up with the pace in a strongly-run race. Made no mistake when last seen in the Champagne in the slop at Belmont at the Big A. Major player.

Ecoro Neo

Japanese shipper. Was up with the pace before dropping away late on in a turf maiden over 1¼m at Niigata on debut. Switched to the dirt, finished second in a 6f contest at Hanshin next time. Looks to have plenty on plate.

Locked

Successful by a wide margin at the second time of asking in a maiden special weight at Saratoga. Showed a good attitude when tasked with the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland next time, beating The Wine Steward into second. Big chance.

Cuban Thunder

Won a maiden at York in May when in the care of Dominic Ffrench Davis. Switched to current barn two starts back and ran third in a listed stakes on the synthetic surface at Dundalk last time. Looks to have his work cut out here.

General Partner

Progressive sort. Won a maiden special weight at Saratoga on second start. No match for Timberlake when second in the Champagne at Belmont at the Big A in the slop. Should be more to come, though this is tough.

Fierceness

Won on debut by 11¼ lengths at Saratoga on a muddy track. Failed to back up that impression when well beaten in the Champagne at Belmont at the Big A next time. Interesting that his powerful connections are persevering at this level first start back.

Muth

Made an impressive start to his career in a maiden special weight at this track in June. Failed to match entrymate Prince of Monaco’s speed in the Grade 3 Best Pal at Del Mar on next start, but made no mistake when easily landing the American Pharoah here last time when stretching out in distance. Should be right in the mix.

Noted

Won two of his four starts, including a listed stakes at Monmouth in August, that his sole dirt outing. Narrowly denied in the Grade 2 Bourbon at Keeneland last time. Returns to the dirt but has drawn widest of all.

Verdict

MUTH, who cost $2,000,000 at the sales, is a perfect two from two at this track and can confirm the impression of his American Pharoah success. Timberlake looks a tough opponent, but he may find the selection too good after a couple of hard races. Locked is going the right way and can be in the mix.


Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Picks

Air Recruit

Winner of a maiden special weight at Colonial Downs on debut. Stretched out in distance and landed a stakes contest at Laurel by 5½ lengths. Going the right way but this is a big step forward.

River Tiber

Won first three races, including the Group 2 Coventry at Royal Ascot. Finished third in Group 1s the last twice. The distance shouldn’t be an issue and he brings strong form here.

Tok Tok

Won his first two starts, both at Colonial Downs. Unlucky when beaten just two lengths into fifth in the Grade 2 Bourbon at Keeneland last time, meeting trouble. May need luck in-running.

Can Group

Runner-up first two starts on the dirt at Ellis Park. Switched to the green stuff and won a maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs before following up in the Grade 2 Bourbon at Keeneland last time, getting up late after being held up in last.

My Boy Prince

Never out of the first two from five starts. Finished second in the Summer at Woodbine September to Carson’s Run, before going wire-to-wire in a stakes contest there last time. Pace angle.

Stay Hot

Third was the best finish from two outings on the Del Mar dirt. Proved a different proposition on the green stuff here last month when taking a maiden special weight. This is a big rise in class.

Agate Road

Beaten a nose on debut in a race off the turf at Saratoga. Earned his diploma next time out there. Suited by a strong pace as he came from behind to score from a reopposing pair in the Grade 2 Pilgrim at Belmont at the Big A.

Unquestionable

A smart performer. Won a maiden at the second time of asking at the Curragh in May before a narrow defeat in the Group 2 Railway there next time. His Phoenix run can be excused, and he rates a serious contender on his recent Lagardere second at Longchamp last time.

Endlessly

Is progressing nicely having won all three starts. First two came at Del Mar, including the Grade 3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf, before the Grade 3 Zuma Beach at this track last month. Barn is in good form and he could be the main danger to the European challenge.

Fulmineo

Earned his diploma at the second attempt at Colonial Downs. Couldn’t quite match Agate Road’s finishing kick in the Grade 2 Pilgrim at Belmont at the Big A last time.

Liam’s Journey

Thrice-raced maiden. Hiked in class when third in the Grade 2 Pilgrim at Belmont at the Big A on latest start. Work to do to reverse form with the pair ahead of him then, let alone win.

Mountain Bear

Acquitted himself quite well without looking good enough in better company after breaking his maiden. Did manage to win a listed stakes on the synthetic surface at Dundalk last time, which O’Brien won with Hit It A Bomb won prior to taking this in 2015. Looks third choice for the barn on jockey bookings.

Grand Mo the First

Won both starts sprinting on the synthetic surface at Gulfstream. Shipped across to the West Coast and stretched out in distance in the Grade 3 Zuma Beach here behind Endlessly. This looks a tall order.

Carson’s Run

Has done little wrong in three starts, only defeat coming when beaten ½-length in the Grade 3 With Anticipation at Saratoga. Won the Summer at Woodbine in good style last time from My Boy Prince who has since won. Hasn’t been helped by the draw.

Verdict

This is shaping up to be a straight shootout between the Aidan O’Brien-trained pair RIVER TIBER and Unquestionable. Preference is for the former, who boosts a likeable profile for this race, looks to have the stronger form and is the choice of Ryan Moore. Carson’s Run has the widest draw but can emerge best of the rest.


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