2 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 12/11/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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New York Rangers vs. Buffalo Sabres

Sabres Moneyline (+115)

Things just aren’t coming together for the Buffalo Sabres. For weeks, they were coming up empty-handed offensively. Then, once the Sabres started scoring, their goaltending fell apart. But there’s reason for optimism heading into tonight’s intra-state rivalry showdown against the New York Rangers.

Finally, Buffalo’s offense is operating at peak efficiency. The Sabres have recorded no fewer than 11 high-danger chances in their past four games, eclipsing 24 scoring opportunities in all but one of those contests. More importantly, that increased production is starting to yield more scoring. The Sabres have 15 goals across the four-game sample, with the bulk of those tallies (11) coming at five-on-five. Despite its surging offense, Buffalo lost all four, extending its woeful losing streak to seven games. Still, we have the Sabres earmarked for progression over their coming games. They have a solid defensive structure, limiting six of their past eight opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances.

Further, that defensive integrity should result in an improved save percentage. Sabres goalies have fallen below typical levels in three of their past four, posting a cumulative .855 five-on-five save percentage across the four-game sample. That puts them off the pace relative to their regular season average of .903, making Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and James Reimer natural progression candidates in the short term.

This sounds rich when comparing the Rangers to the Sabres, but New York is on a downward trajectory. They’ve been outplayed in six of their past eight, dropping the Rangers to 22nd in expected goals-for rating. Winning as road favorites seems like an insurmountable climb for New York, leaving an edge in backing the hosts.

Anaheim Ducks vs. Ottawa Senators

Senators Moneyline (-255)

For the second time in less than two weeks, the Ottawa Senators will face the Anaheim Ducks, this time in Canada’s capital. The Ducks emerged victorious the last time these teams met. However, we see a more pronounced advantage in backing the Sens to cash as home favorites on Tuesday night.

A couple of weeks ago, Ottawa suffered through an analytics run, getting outplayed in four straight games from November 21 to November 27. However, they’ve reversed course on that ineffective stretch by posting above-average expected goals-for ratings in five straight. Over the recent schedule, the Sens have held their opponents to an average of 9.0 high-danger and 20.4 scoring opportunities per game. Both of those benchmarks give the Senators a leg up over the Ducks.

While they’ve made strides, the Ducks still have a lot of work to do. Consistency limits their ceiling every time the Ducks step onto the ice, and they can’t sustain pressure at either end of the ice. Anaheim ranks in the bottom six in scoring and high-danger chances while sitting in the league's bottom half in both defensive categories. Not surprisingly, that correlates with the worst expected goals-for rating in the league.

Things haven’t looked much better for the Ducks more recently. Anaheim has been outplayed in three of four, falling below 39.8% in two of those contests. We’re forecasting another one-sided affair at Canadian Tire Centre as the Ducks try to get past a resilient Sens team. Ultimately, the implied probability of the betting price doesn’t match Ottawa’s chances of knocking off the Ducks.

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