2 Best UEFA Women's Euro Bets and Player Props for Friday 7/11/25

The UEFA Women's Euro 2025 is here, bringing together Europe's top sides. With each match comes plentiful betting options.

When looking at the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense across today's matches?

Women's Euro 2025 Betting Picks for Today

Italy vs. Spain

Spain Under 2.5 Goals (-125)

Italy is 13th in the FIFA World Rankings, yet Spain is a -440 moneyline favorite -- that's how good Spain have been in this tournament en route to racking up a +9 goal difference through two matches versus solid opposition (Portugal and Belgium).

But I think they are some reasons to take Spain to score fewer than three goals on Friday.

For one, this match doesn't mean too much for Spain. Sure, a loss would bump them to second in the group, but they're locked into qualification for the knockout rounds, which is what really matters. For a side like Spain -- one that has its sights set on a deep run -- today's match is an opportunity for them to rotate the squad and rest some key pieces.

As for Italy, they are also likely through to the next round, but it's not a lock. They currently hold a six-goal advantage over Portugal when it comes to goal difference, so Portugal would need to beat Belgium by a handful of goals in addition to Italy losing to Spain by a meaningful margin -- something that is clearly a very legit possibility given what we've seen from Spain through two matches. In short, Italy have plenty to play for, and the Italians' survival may hinge on their ability to keep Spain's attack in check.

Taking motivation out of it, Italy are a solid team with a quality defense. They've permitted just 1.0 total expected goals (xG) -- per FBRef -- against Portugal and Belgium, which is a bit lower than the 1.3 xG Spain conceded to those two sides. Plus, while Spain have netted an astounding 11 goals through two outings, they're significantly out-performing their xG as they've amassed just 7.0 xG.

Add it all up, and I think Italy will make things difficult for Spain and keep the red-hot Spanish side to their first human performance of the tourney.

Portugal vs. Belgium

Belgium Moneyline (+310)

These two sides look pretty even on paper, and while motivation certainly favors Portugal, I think the market may be factoring that in too much.

Sitting on zero points through two outings, Belgium are drawing dead and have no chance to move on. Portugal, meanwhile, have a chance -- albeit not a great one -- and need to win and make up a six-goal gap in goal difference with Italy. It sounds far-fetched, but if Spain win by multiple goals, things get interesting. Regardless, the motivation edge is all Portugal's.

However, I'm not sure there's much of a difference in these two teams, so Portugal being a -125 moneyline favorite feels a little off to me. That puts me on Belgium to win, and Belgium to win or draw in the double-chance market (-110) is appealing, too.

Spain thrashed both of these teams, but Belgium lost only 2.7-1.0 on xG to Spain while the difference was 4.2-0.3 for Portugal. Against Italy, both Belgium and Portugal lost the xG battle by 0.9. Additionally, FIFA's World Rankings -- admittedly not always a great reference point -- have Belgium (20th) and Portugal (22nd).

These sides rate out pretty similarly, yet there's a big gap in the odds for this match. That makes the underdog an appealing target.

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