2 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Thursday 4/3/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins

Twins ML (-120)

A pair of quality pitchers are squaring off in Minnesota today between Hunter Brown and Joe Ryan, but we should expect Ryan and the Minnesota Twins to ultimately come out on top.

Ryan will be facing a Houston Astros lineup that's likely to feature eight right-handed batters, and it just so happens the Minnesota righty was lights out in same-handed matchups in 2024, posting a 3.06 xFIP, 30.4% strikeout rate, and 4.2% walk rate.

Further, with the Astros losing some key pieces this offseason, their active roster has a middle-of-the-pack 102 wRC+ versus righties dating back to last year.

On the other hand, Brown is in a tougher spot facing a Twins active roster with a 112 wRC+ against right-handers since the start of 2024. Brown also struggled with walks in his 2025 debut (13.0% rate), which will be an issue if this persists.

All in all, there's a case that the Twins have the advantage in both pitching and hitting tonight, so we should feel confident backing them at home.

Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees

Over 9.5 Runs (-124)

Torpedo bats or not, this is a pretty high total for these teams to exceed -- particularly in early April -- but we should expect a high-scoring affair at Yankee Stadium tonight.

For starters, we have solid weather conditions with temperatures just under 70 degrees and winds blowing out at roughly 12 mph to left field, and this is one of the top ballparks for home runs, per Baseball Savant.

But what should really pique or interest is that we get two strong lineups that should be able to take advantage of exploitable starting pitchers.

The Arizona Diamondbacks will have right-hander Merrill Kelly toeing the rubber. The New York Yankees could have as many as six left-handed bats starting tonight, and Kelly had a rough time with lefties in 2024, recording a 5.05 xFIP, 14.4% K rate, and 10.0% BB rate. In his opening 2025 start, Kelly issued 3 walks with no strikeouts against 11 lefty sticks, so it's likely his troubles will continue in the split.

Of course, this isn't even accounting for the frightening right-handed bat of Aaron Judge, who's a threat no matter the matchup. New York's active roster boasts a 117 wRC+ versus righties since 2024.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks' bats should be able to get rolling against another righty, Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco has been past his prime for a while now, and keeping the ball in the park has been a major problem for him the past two seasons. This doesn't look like a fluke, either, considering he produced a 4.71 xERA in 2024 and 6.77 xERA the year before.

Arizona's active roster also rates out well against righties, showing a 112 wRC+ in the split going back to last year.

Both teams could be busy at the plate on Thursday, leading us to the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.