2 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Thursday 12/12/24
College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best College Basketball Picks
Iowa State vs. Iowa
Curtis Jones (ISU) Over 15.5 Points (-110)
The Hawkeye state is up for grabs in what's easily the top game on Thursday's slate as No. 3 Iowa State visits unranked Iowa. However, with the third-ranked Cyclones favored by 6.5 on the road, I can't quite get there with either side of the spread. But there's still value in the prop market, namely with Iowa State guard Curtis Jones.
Jones enters Thursday averaging 16.3 points per game, second on the team. He ranks second on the Cyclones in usage rate (23% per Bart Torvik), too, while leading them with 12 field goal attempts per game.
That's helped him crack 16 points in five of eight games this season, nudging me to the over on his 15.5 points prop.
Curtis Jones (ISU) - Total Points
Jones comes off the bench for Iowa State, but he's second on the team in minutes. His elite 3-point shooting (2.9 3PM; 40.4% 3P%) gives him 20-point upside on a nightly basis, especially against a defense as poor as Iowa's.
The Hawkeyes are just 79th nationally in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and they're giving up a pedestrian 73.3 points per game (242nd nationally) despite facing only two teams in the top 100 of KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency. Iowa allowed 85 and 77 points in those two, losing in the process.
It doesn't hurt that this is a pace-up spot for Iowa State, either. The Cyclones don't play slow by any means (89th in KenPom's adjusted tempo), but facing Iowa (22nd) should drive up their possessions even more. The Hawkeyes are 51st in opponent average possession length. In three other games against top 100 teams by opp. average possession length, Jones notched 19, 20, and 5 points.
Thus, Curtis Jones is set up to at least match his season average for points in a plus matchup, going over 15.5 points in the process.
New Mexico State vs. Texas
Under 142.5 (-105)
Outside of the Iowa State-Iowa game, Thursday's slate is light on high-major powers. But Texas (39th on KenPom) does play host to New Mexico State (193rd) at 8pm ET, allowing us to back the Longhorns' stifling defense against an Aggies side averaging just 73.1 points per game.
Texas sports the 24th-best scoring defense in the country as they're allowing just 63 points per game. That's backed up by a No. 22 ranking in KenPom's adjusted defense metric, presenting New Mexico State's 230th-ranked adjusted offense with a tall task tonight.
The Aggies could struggle to crack 60 points against Texas, so I do see value in taking under 142.5 total points at -105 odds.
Total Points
Texas will be easily the best defense New Mexico State has faced all year, but we've seen them struggle to generate offense even against lesser foes. The next-closest defense they've played thus far -- Dayton (78th in adj. D) -- held the Aggies to a mere 53 points on a sub-40% mark from the floor.
Efficiency has been a struggle for New Mexico State all year; they're 302nd in effective field goal percentage (46.3% eFG%) and 329th in 2-point field goal percentage (44.6%). Thus, they'll be hard-pressed to reach their 59.5-point implied total against a Texas side that's 35th in eFG% defense (45.1%).
Now, Texas likely won't have too much trouble scoring on the Aggies. But it's not like the Longhorns are world-beaters on that end of the floor. Though they're 60th in adj. O, Texas is just 110th nationally in scoring (79 points per game) thanks in large part to their pedestrian pace. The Longhorns rank 241st in adjusted tempo; New Mexico State is 235th.
With both sides playing slow and Texas sporting an elite defense, points could be at a premium tonight. That's enough for me to back under 142.5 points in what should be a low-scoring affair.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.