2 Best College Basketball Bets and Player Props for Xavier vs. Illinois

Since the opening round of four games was introduced in 2011, at least one team has advanced to the second round of the men's college basketball tournament in 12 of the past 13 tournaments with the only exception being 2019. Most are going to overlook the 16 seeds from the opening round, putting our focus on those 11 seeds. Xavier fits the mold, posing a serious threat to Illinois.

To see thoughts on other games, check out our full men's college basketball tournament predictions page. But for Xavier vs. Illinois, here are my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball betting odds.

Betting Picks for Xavier vs. Illinois

Xavier +3.5 (-106)

Various metrics show just how close these two teams, for KenPom has Illinois ranked 20th while Xavier is 41st. Bart Torvik has it a touch closer with the Fighting Illini ranked 23rd compared to the Musketeers ranked 37th. EvanMiya's relative ratings suggest the two have a razor-thin margin with Illinois 29th and Xavier 33rd.

The Illini have been a pretty up and down team all season. For example, they lost three straight from February 15 to 22, followed by a four-game winning streak from February 25 to March 13. However, Illinois comes off a 23-point loss in the Big Ten Tournament against Maryland as only 1.5-point underdogs. Meanwhile, Xavier has won 8 of the last 9 while going 7-2 against the spread (ATS) during the span.

Pace won't really be a big factor here as both teams like to play fast by sitting in the 79th percentile for the quickest adjusted tempos -- hence the 159.5 total. Of the two offenses, I have far more trust in the Musketeers. They are a more consistent unit, carrying a 54.3% (eFG%) effective field goal percentage (85th percentile) while the Fighting Illini have a 52.3 eFG% (71st percentile).

Illinois' shot distributions are head-scratching as its in the 92nd percentile of three-point shot distribution despite shooting a dreadful 31.1% from deep (13th percentile). Meanwhile, Xavier can get hot from three by shooting 39.1% (98th percentile), and it made 12 of 25 attempts (48.0%) on Wednesday night.

Rebounding is my only area of concern, preventing me from grabbing the Musketeers moneyline (+136). Xavier has a 21.4% offensive rebounding percentage (8th percentile) compared to the Illini's 35.3% mark (96th percentile). Still, the Musketeers should keep it close. They are even in the 81st percentile of personal fouls per play, limiting Illinois' 22.2 free throw shots per game (90th percentile).

Under 159.5 Points (-105)

As mentioned, this has one of the highest totals of the first round at 159.5. However, we have clear questions about Illinois' efficiency, and Xavier can take away some easy points at the free throw line.

It doesn't stop there, for the Fighting Illini are in the 99th percentile of three-point shot distribution allowed while giving up 19.9 three-point shots per contest (86th percentile). This should limit the Musketeers' absurd efficiency from beyond the arc, and they don't shoot much to begin with at 21.4 attempts per contest (36th percentile).

Neither team does a great job of getting easy looks at the rim, for Xavier is outside the top 100 of close twos shot distribution while Illinois is in the 13th percentile of the category. Similar to the Illini, the Musks lean on getting to the free throw line with 21.0 attempts per contest (78th percentile), but Illinois is in the 87th percentile of personal fouls per play.

If the Fighting Illini are limiting Xavier's three-point attempts, I also have concerns about the Musketeers' efficiency. With each team likely keeping free throw attempts in check, this could feature fewer points than what most are expecting.

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Which bets stand out to you for today's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest men's college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.