2 Best College Basketball Bets and Player Props for Troy vs. Kentucky

Shield your eyes Kentucky fans (lost to No. 14 Oakland in 2024), a 14 seed has taken down a 3 seed in two of the past four men's college basketball tournaments. No one feels safe these days, even a pair of 1 seeds have lost in the first tournament over the last 10 years. But that's the beauty of the madness.

With that said, Kentucky has fallen in that three slot once again. Will it redeem its upset loss from a season ago? Troy has other plans as the Trojans come into the tournament winning six straight games while going 6-0 against the spread (ATS).

To see thoughts on other games, check out our full men's college basketball tournament predictions page. But for Troy vs. Kentucky, here are my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball betting odds.

Betting Picks for Troy vs. Kentucky

Kentucky -11.5 (-105)

Over John Calipari's final five seasons at Kentucky, the Wildcats grabbed one win in the men's college basketball tournament. That's far from the standard as a blue blood. If the Cats can simply make the second weekend, Big Blue Nation will probably be thrilled -- which is sitting at +110 odds.

The pursuit for a regional semifinal appearance begins with a first round bout with Troy. Simply looking at the Trojans' last two can make this a very scary matchup. Troy was a 1.5-point favorite in the Sun Belt Tournament semifinal, and took out James Madison with a 19-point win. As three-point underdogs in the final against Arkansas State, the Trojans won by 13 points.

Last season, the Sun Belt featured a strong 12 seed in James Madison, which finished 63rd in KenPom while grabbing one tournament win. The conference's quality just isn't quite there this time around as Troy is 93rd in KenPom. Its still the second-highest rated 14 seed, though.

However, this isn't a great matchup up for the Trojans. They are 152nd in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency and 66th in defense. Kentucky has feasted on defensive-led teams this season, including a pair of wins over Tennessee and dubs over Texas A&M and Duke. Ranked as the eighth-best offense, this unit has the firepower to score on anyone.

Troy is in the 24th percentile of defensive rebounding percentage and 15th percentile for turnovers per game. These are not ideal marks for a team that wants to control the possession game and slow it down. UK should be able to push the pace as it is in the 94th percentile for the quickest adjusted tempos.

With a 30.3% three-point percentage (7th percentile), the Trojans are in the 96th percentile of close twos shot distribution (per Bart Torvik), but the Cats have the answer by sitting in the 96th percentile of close twos shot distribution allowed. Defense has primarily been Kentucky's weakness, and if that's shining, I'm not sure how it doesn't cover this game. Getting its best defensive guard Lamont Butler back is another big boost. Bart Torvik's game projections has the Wildcats by 13 while KenPom puts the margin at 12 points.

Amari Williams Over 12.5 Points (-114)

Kentucky is known for letting it fly from three, taking 25.7 per game (82nd percentile) while draining 9.6 three-pointers per contest (91st percentile). However, Troy's paint defense is its weakness, ranking in the 30th percentile of close twos shot distribution allowed compared to the 58th percentile against the three-ball.

This offense still has some players that can get to the rim as Lamont Butler (54.0%), Otega Oweh (56.3%), and Amari Williams (59.6%) are all over 50% for shots at the rim. Oweh has a lofty 18.5-point prop, and Butler is returning from injury, making his potential minutes a question. This shifts my focus to Williams with his 12.5-point prop.

Williams has four three-point attempts on the season; this isn't a guy that's going to keep chucking threes. He's one of two consistent post presences on the offense (along with Andrew Carr), giving him a great matchup against Troy.

The recent production is there, too, for Williams has reached 13 points in six of his last nine and two of his past three.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.