2 Best College Basketball Bets and Player Props for North Carolina vs. Duke

The college basketball season is rolling along, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.

Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.

North Carolina and Duke will meet for the third time this season in the ACC Tournament's semifinals. Utilizing FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds, what are the best bets for college basketball's top rivalry?

North Carolina vs. Duke Betting Picks

North Carolina Over 72.5 Points (-114)

The Blue Devils were favored by 10.0 and 13.5 points in the past two UNC-Duke meetings, which is significantly higher than today's 7.5-point spread.

Cooper Flagg suffered an ankle injury on Thursday. As the projected No. 1 pick for the 2025 NBA Draft, his impact is evident as he leads the team with 18.9 points per game (PPG), 7.5 rebounds per game (RPG), 4.1 assists per game (APG), 1.5 steals per game, and 1.2 blocks per game. As if leading the team in all five major categories wasn't enough, Flagg is second in college basketball in Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR) at 4.64, per EvanMiya.

Assuming Flagg cannot play, this is an entirely different team, which gives the Tar Heels a chance. We saw that on Thursday as the Blue Devils won by only 8 as 23-point favorites against Georgia Tech.

North Carolina mostly looks to live around the rim by sitting in the 91st percentile of dunk shot distribution and 90th percentile for close twos. With the nation's fourth-best adjusted defensive efficiency, Duke looks slightly vulnerable as they sit in the 59th percentile of dunk shot distribution allowed, though it is much better against close twos (95th percentile).

However, this is where Flagg's injury once again comes into play. He's been the Blue Devils' best defender, primarily roaming the paint as a forward. Veteran forward Mason Gillis will likely fill in for Flagg, but he has only a 1.43 DBPR (third-worst on the team).

UNC is fully capable of some big scoring nights, averaging 81.1 PPG (93rd percentile). The Tar Heels are also in the 80th percentile for three-point percentage (35.7%). After Duke allowed Georgia Tech to make 12 of 27 three-point shots (44.4%), this is another plus for North Carolina to go over its total. If Flagg can't go, Duke's defense could look like a shell of itself.

Khaman Maluach Over 9.5 Points (-125)

We've focused on the Tar Heels' chances thus far, but the Blue Devils should have success on offense, too, with UNC ranking 69th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

By ranking in the 27th percentile of dunk shot distribution allowed, the Tar Heels typically struggle to defend the rim. Nearly all Khaman Maluach does is attack the paint, taking a team-high 81.0% of his shots at the rim. Additionally, he's made 71 dunks on the season, which leads his squad by more than 30.

UNC has stumbled in conference play against bigs, giving up 16.4 points (fifth-most in the ACC) and 12.4 field goal attempts per 40 minutes (second-most in the ACC). At 7 foot 2 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, Maluach will also have a size advantage. The Tar Heels' frontcourt is led by Ven-Allen Lubin (6'8") and Jae'Lyn Withers (6'9"), and neither provide encouraging DBPRs at 1.58 and 1.55.

Maluach has reached 14 points in two of his last four -- one of which being on Thursday with Flagg playing for only 15 minutes. Almost every Blue Devil can expect an increased scoring role if Flagg is absent, and that applies to Maluach in a nice matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.