2 Best College Basketball Bets and Player Props for Illinois vs. Kentucky

One of the best second round games of Sunday should be Illinois against Kentucky. The Fighting Illini are favored by only 1.5 points, and both teams come off impressive opening performances. As 11.5-point favorites, the Wildcats rolled to a 19-point win. Meanwhile, the Illini won by 13 points as a 4-point favorite over Xavier.

Following a regional finals appearance in 2024, Illinois is looking to advance to the second weekend for a consecutive postseason. Kentucky is chasing its first second weekend appearance since 2019.

To see thoughts on other games, check out our full men's college basketball tournament predictions page. But for Illinois vs. Kentucky, here are my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball betting odds.

Betting Picks for Illinois vs. Kentucky

Illinois Moneyline (-120)

Nearly everything about this matchup is neck-and-neck. KenPom has the Fighting Illini ranked 16th while the Cats are 17th. Bart Torvik shows similar numbers as Kentucky ranks 18th while Illinois is 19th. Bart Torvik's game projections have UK winning by one point, and KenPom has the Illini winning by one. This is like splitting hairs. What could be the difference in this one?

Both teams are excellent on the offensive end as each rank in the top 15 of KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, and they are in the 93rd percentile for the quickest adjusted tempos. This lofty 170.5-point total doesn't come as a surprise. This one should come down to the possession battle and defense. With that said, the Fighting Illini feel like the best pick.

Over the last five tournaments, the best adjusted defensive efficiency wins in about 70% of second-round matchups. Illinois is 41st in adjusted defensive efficiency while Kentucky ranks 54th. Plus, we have some shot distributions from Bart Torvik that drive home this point.

The Wildcats' defense is concerning all around by sitting in the 34th percentile of close twos shot distribution allowed and the 12th percentile for defending the three-ball. With Illinois in the 13th percentile of close twos shot distribution, some of these worries are eased. But the Illini made 12 of 30 threes (40.0%) in the first round despite shooting 31.4% on the season (19th percentile). This could be bound for regression, or Illinois is getting hot at the right time. Frankly, its three-point shooting efficiency has been like flipping a coin this season.

Perhaps the two biggest points for the Fighting Illini are offensive rebounding and three-point defense. Illinois ranks 14th in offensive rebounding percentage while Kentucky is 219th. The Cats also love to shoot the three with 25.7 attempts per game (82nd percentile). Illinois has the answer by sitting in the 99th percentile of three-point shot distribution allowed.

A potential advance in shooting threes while corralling extra possessions from offensive boards should be enough to push the Illini to a win.

Under 170.5 Points (-110)

While each offense is in the top six of points per game (PPG), I like the under.

KenPom has this a shade under 170.5 points with a 169-point total. We mentioned Illinois' ability to defend the three-point line, which should help slow Kentucky. While the Wildcats allow three-point shots in bulk, opponents shoot only 30.6% from three against UK (93rd percentile). Whether that's attributed to hard closeouts or pure luck, this is something that's rang true for the majority of the season. The Fighting Illini just went 6 of 27 from three (22.2%) prior to their first game in the men's college basketball tournament.

With each three-point attack potentially lacking production, this is a huge boost to the under. Over the last month of play, Bart Torvik also credits the Wildcats with the 28th-best adjusted defensive efficiency. Neither defense forces many turnovers by sitting in the 14th percentile of forced turnovers per game, limiting the chances for some easy fast break points, too.

You can also download our FREE college basketball printable bracket.

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Which bets stand out to you for today's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest men's college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.