2 Best College Basketball Bets and Player Props for Baylor vs. Mississippi State

A close game for an 8 seed against a 9 seed makes sense.

They just don't get much closer than this one.

Mississippi State enters as a slight favorite to advance against 9 seed Baylor. But as of Wednesday afternoon, this was the only first-round Men's College Basketball Tournament game where both teams' moneylines were shorter than even money.

Who holds the edge prior to tip?

I'm going to run through my thoughts on this game below, including my read on the moneyline.

To see thoughts on other games, check out our full men's college basketball tournament predictions page. But for Baylor vs. Mississippi State, here are my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball betting odds.

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Betting Picks for Baylor vs. Mississippi State

Baylor Moneyline (-105)

I agree with the market that this game is close, but Baylor should be the true favorite.

When I pulled in power rating data from KenPom, Bart Torvik, The Power Rank, and ESPN BPI in order to get a "Wisdom of the Crowds" ranking of each team in the tourney, Baylor graded out as the 25th-ranked team; Mississippi State was 32nd. Those blended power ratings would make Baylor a 1.7-point favorite on a neutral site. Instead, it's the Bulldogs who are favored by 1.5.

This was true across all four sources, as well, so it wasn't a single outlier skewing the poll. Thus, I'm willing to back Baylor to pull off the nominal upset as the lower-seeded team.

VJ Edgecombe 2-Plus Made Threes (-102)

Mississippi State's biggest weakness is that they let opponents crank a ton of 3-pointers. They rank 326th in 3-point attempt rate allowed, according to Bart Torvik.

You could attack this via a couple of different angles, including the Baylor team total or the game total over. I think riding with VJ Edgecombe in this market is my preference, though.

The freshman is more than willing to chuck it, averaging 4.6 3-point attempts per game. Although he struggled with efficiency beyond the arc down the stretch, he clearly earned the coaching staff's trust as he has averaged 35.8 minutes per game in March.

When you combine that kind of court time with a guy who will let it rip against this kind of defense, I think there's an edge in riding with the over.

Which bets stand out to you for today's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest men's college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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