2 Best Bets for Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers at Falcons

Week 5's Thursday night battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons is shaping up to be the best Thursday matchup since Week 1's thrilling finish between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. Week 2 and Week 3 featured two 21-point deficits, and last week's collision between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants was ugly, to say the least.

Finally, an eye-catching contest is scheduled for Thursday Night Football as the Buccaneers (+195) and Falcons (+165) currently hold the shortest odds to win the NFC South. Tampa Bay comes off a statement 33-16 win over the Philadelphia Eagles while Atlanta grabbed a key last-second victory against the New Orleans Saints. Who will keep the momentum going in primetime football?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Thursday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Buccaneers at Falcons

Buccaneers Moneyline (+114)

Tampa Bay closed as an underdog last week and then notched a 17-point win. Lessons have not been learned as the Buccaneers are currently underdogs.

They are 11th in numberFire's nERD-based NFL power rankings while the Falcons are 18th. Atlanta is also carrying the 12th-worst schedule-adjusted offense and holds the 16th-worst schedule-adjusted defense. Although Tampa Bay has the 14th-worst schedule-adjusted defense, its offense is much better (8th-best). Despite carrying the better numbers through four games, the Bucs are in an underdog role once again.

According to numberFire's NFL projections, the Falcons are favored to win by only 0.5 points, so this should be a tight one. MasseyRatings is siding with the Buccaneers with a projected score of 23-20. That pushes me toward the underdogs at their +114 moneyline.

Atlanta's biggest flaw on defense at this point is defending the run. While the Falcons are giving up only 4.0 yards per carry (eighth-fewest), the unit is surrendering 145.5 rushing yards per contest (eighth-most). In the secondary, Atlanta is allowing 6.2 yards per passing attempt (6th-fewest) and 191.0 passing yards per game (13th-fewest). Going back to the schedule-adjusted numbers, the Falcons' run defense has the 9th-worst mark in the category compared to holding the 16th-best mark in pass defense.

So, what does this mean for Tampa Bay's offense -- a unit attempting the 8th-fewest runs per game while holding the 10th-highest pass play percentage? Initially, this doesn't seem like a good matchup, but the Buccaneers have the 15th-best schedule-adjusted run offense right now.

Rookie running back Bucky Irving just got his highest snap count yet in Week 4 with 32 snaps and a 42% snap rate -- his previous highs were 20 snaps and a 35% snap rate. Irving is recording 0.32 rushing yards over expectation per carry compared to Rachaad White's -0.88 (via NFL's Next Gen Stats). The rookie also received his highest rushing attempts yet in Week 4 at 10, and ESPN's Jeremy Fowler claimed, "opposing coaches are game planning for him as if he's a focal point of the offense."

Considering the importance of the matchup at hand, Tampa Bay could finally unleash Irving and ride the hot hand. If the Bucs do so, Bucky seems in store for a breakout performance. Irving's rushing yards prop is set at 44.5.

While Atlanta's pass defense has been an above average, the Falcons hold Pro Football Focus' fifth-worst pass rush grade while the Buccaneers are in the top half of PFF's pass block grade. Baker Mayfield has been solid so far with 0.02 expected points added per dropback (EPA/db), and he posted a clip of 0.19 in Week 4. If given time, Mayfield -- who has a 241.5 passing yards prop for Thursday -- is still a threat, especially with Chris Godwin producing 80.5 receiving yards per game and 18.7 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) per game -- the eighth-best mark among qualifying players.

On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay is boasting the ninth-best schedule-adjusted pass defense. The Falcons hold the 14th-highest pass play percentage (58.1%), which was up to 68.6% in Week 4. The Buccaneers are extremely vulnerable against the run, holding 0.27 rushing NEP allowed per play (the worst). However, Atlanta currently has the fifth-worst schedule-adjusted rushing offense -- giving Bijan Robinson 61.1% of the carries and a 76.7% snap share. He's logging a concerning -0.33 RYOE/C. Despite inefficiencies, Bijan is still carrying the highest rushing yards prop for this game (61.5).

Neither ground game is posting eye-catching numbers, but this could be the key to Thursday's matchup. Tampa Bay is in a slightly better position to win this category with Irving emerging in the backfield. Additionally, the Bucs have the 6th-best turnover margin per game (+0.5) while the Falcons carry the 12th-worst mark (-0.3).

The proof is in the pudding; give me Tampa Bay to win another game as an underdog. Injuries on the Buccaneers' defensive line -- including Calijah Kancey (out with calf), Logan Hall (questionable with foot), and Tevita Vea (questionable with knee) -- could be the biggest worry for this pick. Keep an eye on the injury report.

Buccaneers 1st Half Winner (+104)

Continuing with our pro-Bucs ticket, Tampa Bay is also a favorable bet to win the first half. The first half spread is set at -1.5 in favor of Atlanta. Both teams are holding 3-1 against-the-spread (ATS) records in the first half thus far, but the Buccaneers' first-half success dates back to last season; Tampa was 13-6 ATS in the first half in the 2023 season while the Falcons finished 7-10 in the category.

In their three wins this season, the Bucs have scored first in all three games. More importantly, Tampa Bay has taken an average margin of +11.0 to halftime in all three of their wins. Meanwhile, the Falcons are holding a +2.5 average margin at the end of the first half. Even with the Buccaneers' ugly 26-7 loss against the Denver Broncos thrown into the mix (which featured a 13.0-point halftime deficit for the Bucs), Tampa still holds the superior halftime margin (+5.0) this season.

With two exceptional first-half teams clashing, this could be one of the most intriguing bets for Thursday night. Early turnovers could make the difference. Atlanta has turned the ball over in the first half in three of four games. Meanwhile, the Bucs' defense has forced a first-half turnover in two of its last three games.

The potential for short fields certainly adds intrigue for Tampa Bay winning the first half. Plus, the Falcons' +2.5 average margin at halftime seems headed for negative regression with the offense's first-half turnover woes.

Dating back to last season, the Buccaneers have led at halftime in four consecutive road games. One of these matchups included last season's 29-25 road victory over Atlanta.

I've highlighted why I like Tampa Bay to win Thursday night's clash, and this goes hand-in-hand with winning the first half.

Get ready for Thursday Night Football! All customers get one No Sweat Token for a Same Game Parlay on the Bucs vs Falcons game happening October 3rd. See here for full terms and conditions.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.