2 Best Bets for the French Open Women's Semifinals at Roland Garros on Day 12

The tennis clay season concludes with the French Open -- otherwise known as Roland Garros -- bringing us the second Grand Slam of 2025.

We're into the second week, and FanDuel Sportsbook has French Open odds for all the matches in the coming days.

Let's see which bets could have the most value in the women's semifinals on Thursday.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek

Sabalenka -1.5 Games (-112)

This is the blockbuster match most were hoping to see on this half of the draw. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka has a commanding lead in the WTA rankings, but she has a losing record against rival Iga Swiatek, who has dominated this surface and event throughout her career.

Swiatek has won 8 of her 12 matches versus Sabalenka, which includes winning 4 of 5 on clay. Add in that she's won four of the last five French Opens, and you would normally expect her to be a clear favorite.

However, these odds show just how much Iga's aura of invincibility on clay has faded. Since winning the 2024 French Open, Swiatek not only hasn't won another title on any surface, but she's hasn't even reached another singles final. While she's still made deep runs at the biggest tournaments, she hasn't been consistently competing for trophies like we had seen dating back to 2022.

Even when this year's clay season rolled around, the dominant Swiatek didn't reemerge. While she advanced to the Madrid semis, a shocking 6-1, 6-0 loss to Coco Gauff quickly shattered any good vibes, and she followed that up by losing her second match in Rome to Danielle Collins, a defeat that contributed to her dropping to fifth in the rankings. Heading into those matches, Iga was 11-3 versus Gauff and 7-1 against Collins.

In contrast, Sabalenka has reached nine finals over the past 52 weeks and won six of them, including the 2024 US Open. Following a couple of quick exits after losing the 2025 Australian Open final, she's since gone 23-3 over her last five tournaments before Paris and recently won a clay title in Madrid.

Sabalenka hasn't dropped a set yet in Paris, and while Swiatek has lost only one set, she notably went down a set and two games to Elena Rybakina in the fourth round before making a furious comeback to win 1-6, 6-3. 7-5. It's possible that gutsy win has given her renewed confidence, but another lapse like that would almost certainly doom her against Sabalenka.

Aryna has surpassed Swiatek for the top spot in Tennis Abstract's clay rankings, and Massey Ratings gives her a slight edge in the matchup. Perhaps Iga has found her French Open mojo over the past couple of matches, but the greater body of work going back to last season has favored Sabalenka, and this looks like her opportunity to oust the Queen of Clay.

Lois Boisson vs. Coco Gauff

Boisson Over 8.5 Total Match Games (-110)

The biggest story of the tournament has to be the Cinderella run by Lois Boisson, a French player who entered ranked outside the top 300 but has barreled her way into the semis with back-to-back top-10 wins over Jessica Pegula and Mirra Andreeva. She'll now try to make it three in a row with world No. 2 Coco Gauff up next.

This is a tricky situation to predict. On paper, this is a gift of a semifinal for Gauff, and she should wreck someone with Boisson's resume in no time at all. Boisson is ranked 361st and hadn't competed in any event above a WTA 250 all season, let alone the main draw of a Grand Slam. Prior to this major debut, the 22-year-old had never played anyone ranked better than 60th and had just one win over a top-100 opponent.

And yet we could've said the same thing for Pegula and Andreeva, and both fell to Boisson and a boisterous pro-Boisson crowd. The 18-year-old Andreeva was notably rattled by the French fans being completely against her, going down in straight sets. Boisson is playing freely with nothing to lose, and she's thrived off her home-court advantage.

Gauff isn't immune to emotional swings within a match and sometimes struggles with her serve and unforced errors. Her match against Madison Keys on Wednesday was a perfect example as Gauff logged 41 unforced errors and 10 double faults in a three-set win. The French crowd will get on her quickly if she runs into similar struggles against Boisson.

Ultimately, Coco should prevail, but Boisson has been unfazed by the moment and seems unlikely to go away quietly. Backing Boisson to win nine or more games isn't a big ask, and she'll reach this mark easily if she pushes Gauff to a tiebreak or grabs a set.

You can also check out our 2025 French Open men's bracket and women's bracket, both available as free printable downloads at FanDuel Research.

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