2 Best Bets for Monday Night Football: Jaguars at Bills

Urgency is the theme of the first of a two-part edition of Monday Night Football tonight.

The Jacksonville Jaguars need this one. They're 0-2 through an albeit difficult schedule, but an 0-3 start could be an axe to the playoff spot that was the initial goal. Since 1990, 158 of 162 teams to start 0-3 ended up missing the playoffs.

Their issue? They've got another brutal assignment to get it done in Orchard Park against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo's two-pack of wins to open the season against the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins reaffirm their status as a top-shelf Super Bowl contender.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's first of two Monday night games.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Jaguars at Bills

Jaguars +5.5 (-110)

With their season essentially on the line, I'm taking the points with the Jags. That urgency is hard to match.

Buffalo is a bit overvalued in this spot in recent history. They're just 8-12 against the spread (ATS) as a home favorite since the start of 2022, including an 0-1 start this season. It's not as if the Bills aren't free of some concerns entering this one like a lengthy injury report on defense.

Their style is also conducive to a closer game when playing at the third-slowest adjusted-for-situation pace in the early going, according to Brandon Gdula's Week 3 adjusted pace and pass report.

Jacksonville enters as numberFire's 18th-ranked offense and 14th-ranked defense despite facing what we expected to be an outlier matchup for both units. They limited a healthy Tua Tagovailoa to two offensive touchdowns, and the offensive metrics probably look a bit different if not for three totally empty red zone trips already due to missed kicks or turnovers.

This line was 4.5 points on Friday, so I've still waited to bet it in hopes for a key number of 6.0.

Under 23.5 Points in First Half (-125)

Mentioned briefly in regards to the Bills' tendency to keep things close, this is one of the worst environments for offense of the week.

In addition this being the slowest combined game in pace, Gdula's report labels this the fourth-lowest combined pass rate over expectation (PROE) this week. These two squads have shown to be run-first teams through the first two weeks.

The red zone has also been an issue for Jacksonville, specifically. They've converted touchdowns at just a 42.9% clip to this point from the red area.

This line relative to the full-game total is peculiar. It encompasses key scores of 13-10 or 16-7 that otherwise get lost in a 45.5-point game total not set at 46.0 or 47.0 points.

If anything, the situation might cause one of these teams to speed up or pass more in the second half, leading to more points. Making the first-half expectation for points higher than the second half doesn't seem to match the data.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.