2 Best Bets and Player Props for North Carolina vs. Duke Women's Basketball

Thursday's women's college basketball slate is packed with compelling matchups, but the night's biggest game may belong to Tobacco Road. At 7pm ET, North Carolina visits Duke in a battle of top-25 teams.

Entering Thursday, the line is Duke -5.5, and the over/under is set at 124.5 points.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds to find the North Carolina-Duke best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

North Carolina vs. Duke Betting Picks

Under 124.5 (-114)

The last time North Carolina and Duke squared off in Chapel Hill, they combined for just 99 points.

In overtime.

They finished regulation tied 40-40 and didn't combine for more than 26 points in a single quarter.

That's not exactly new for these conference rivals, however. Both UNC and Duke are in the top 10 nationally in adjusted defense by Bart Torvik's numbers, and they're both among the three best scoring defenses in the ACC.

Neither side is particularly bad on offense, but they're both outside the top 35 in adjusted offense. Coupled with their sub-140 adjusted tempos nationally and bottom-five average paces in ACC play, and it's easy to see why UNC and Duke's league games have averaged the two fewest total points in the conference.

That's resulted in several low-scoring games for both sides, especially when matched up opposite another strong defense.

Five of Duke's 11 games against the top 50 defenses have gone under 124.5 total points. Three of North Carolina's 10 have gone under that total -- though another three totaled 127 or fewer.

A similar stronger trend shows up when we look at how they've performed against other slow-paced teams. Six of UNC's 14 games against teams outside the top 150 have resulted in fewer than 124.5 total points. Only four of Duke's 14 went under that total, but another four finished south of 130.

Given the defensive-minded, slow playstyles for both sides, I'm expecting another low-scoring game. If it's anything like their first matchup, this 124.5-point over/under is a touch too high. That's a sentiment shared by Torvik's model, which projects this game to finish with 120 total points.

North Carolina +5.5 (-110)

If we're anticipating a low-scoring game, that really points in the direction of a spread tighter than 5.5 points. When we can get the superior team on the plus side of that 5.5, I'm inclined to take the points.

UNC needed overtime to take down Duke at home in their first matchup, but it shouldn't have taken that much effort. The Tar Heels squandered a 16-point second-half lead in that one, turning the ball over 26 times -- a mighty high mark for a team ranked 21st nationally in turnover rate. That represented their season-high for turnovers by six giveaways.

Duke scored an eye-popping 25 of their 46 points off those UNC turnovers -- more than double the 12.4 points off turnovers the Tar Heels have let up in conference games.

That, along with the Blue Devils securing 5 more offensive rebounds than North Carolina, resulted in Duke putting up 15 more shots than the Tar Heels. They still lost by seven.

Considering North Carolina led by as many as 16 in the second half of that one, I'd say Duke was lucky to have even been within 10 to finish the game. UNC has won 11-of-12 since that first matchup, while Duke's gone just 9-3. They've lost two of their last three coming into tonight -- the most recent of which came at home to a Louisville squad that UNC just beat by four on the road.

Bart Torvik projects Duke to win by just 4.9 points here. Considering how their first head-to-head matchup went -- and how each side has played since -- I'm more than happy grabbing North Carolina +5.5 and would consider a smaller wager on their +200 moneyline odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.