2 Best Australian Open Tennis Bets for the Women's Final: Sabalenka vs. Keys

The first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, is underway and into the second week.

What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Which bets stand out for the women's singles final?

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Australian Open Tennis Women's Final Betting Picks

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys

Keys +4.5 Games (-126)
Over 2.5 Total Sets (+136)

Madison Keys has had quite the tournament, which includes toppling both world No. 7 Elena Rybakina and world No. 2 Iga Swiatek on her way to this final.

Swiatek entered the semifinals against Keys having lost just 14 games all tournament, and yet she more than doubled that mark in that match alone with Keys winning 5-7, 6-1, 7-6(8). Madison was so focused on her play that she didn't even realize she saved match point late in the third set. She had previously defeated Swiatek just once in five tries, and none of those losses had been particularly close, either.

Perhaps it's a sign that she's in the right mental space to put up a strong fight against Aryna Sabalenka. Not only is Sabalenka the two-time defending Australian Open champion, but she's now won 20 straight matches at this event dating back to 2023. On top of all that, just like Swiatek, Sabalenka has largely dominated the head-to-head against Keys with a 4-1 record.

However, the last time these two faced each other at a Grand Slam (2023 US Open semifinals), Keys narrowly lost a heartbreaker 0-6, 7-6(1), 7-6(5). There's no question that when Madison plays her best, she can hang with Sabalenka on the biggest stage.

Keys ranks ninth in Tennis Abstract's hard court Elo ratings, but she's far enough back from the top-ranked Sabalenka that the site projects just a 21% chance of her pulling off the upset. Massey Ratings is slightly more optimistic, though, bumping the probability up to 25%.

Sabalenka has lost just one set in this latest Australian Open run, and between that, her history here, and her career record versus Keys, this will be an uphill battle for the underdog.

Still, Keys has been resilient in the face of adversity throughout this tournament, winning four of her six matches in three sets and coming back from a set down against both Swiatek and Elina Svitolina.

This is just the second time Madison has reached a major final, and the last time was way back at the 2017 US Open where she lost a one-sided battle (6-3, 6-0) to her friend Sloane Stephens in a match that barely took an hour. Now nearing 30 years old, we should expect Keys to be up for the occasion this time around and not let this opportunity slip by without putting forth her best effort.

If Keys brings the same form she showed in the Swiatek match, she should be able to push Sabalenka and have a good shot of winning a set. With that in mind, she should be able to cover this spread, and getting plus money for the match to go three sets is also appealing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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