2 Best Australian Open Tennis Bets for the Men's Semifinals

The first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, is underway and into the second week.

What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which men's semifinal matches could have the most betting value on Day 13.

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Australian Open Tennis Men's Semifinals Betting Picks for Day 13

Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev

Over 40.5 Total Match Games (-122)

While history suggests Novak Djokovic will prevail and advance to his 11th career Australian Open final, defeating Alexander Zverev is by no means a given.

Although Djokovic owns an 8-4 head-to-head record versus Zverev and is 3-0 against him in Grand Slams, the two have split their last four matches 2-2 and all of those were on hard courts. It's not like Zverev's wins in that sample were in minor events, either, as those were victories at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics and the 2021 ATP Finals.

Additionally, Djokovic suffered an apparent injury in his quarterfinal win over Carlos Alcaraz, which adds another element to consider. Novak is no stranger to playing through seemingly significant ailments in big matches, to the point that ESPN commentator John McEnroe openly suggested that Djokovic was playing up the injury and that Alcaraz shouldn't be "fooled."

While we can only speculate whether or not Djokovic was playing any mind games with Alcaraz, Novak said in his post-match interview that he would've considered retiring if he lost the second set, and he reportedly hasn't practiced since the match, too. We really can't rule out the Serbian entering this at less than 100%.

As for Zverev, he comes into this semifinal in great form. Tommy Paul is only player who has really pushed the German at all, and Zverev still had all the answers in the right moments, emerging with a 7-6(1), 7-6(0), 2-6, 6-1 victory in the quarterfinals.

Per Tennis Abstract, Djokovic projects to win this 68% of the time, but with the unknown injury factor coupled with Zverev mostly cruising into this stage, it's harder to back the Serbian to cover the 2.5-game spread.

However, we've seen Djokovic rise to the occasion plenty of times while dealing with ailments, so we should feel pretty confident in these two providing an epic battle, regardless of the winner.

Despite Zverev being winless against Djokovic in majors, the last two (2021 Australian Open and 2021 US Open) went 44 and 46 total match games. Expect a similar result tonight.

Jannik Sinner vs. Ben Shelton

Over 32.5 Total Match Games (-120)

Ben Shelton has done well to reach his first Australian Open semifinal, but this is likely the end of the road with a near-invincible Jannik Sinner awaiting him.

Sinner is a -2300 favorite (!!) to win this match, which implies a 95.8% win probability. Incredibly, this doesn't even seem to be a market overreaction, as Tennis Abstract projects a 96% win chance, and Massey Ratings forecasts 94%.

If we look at the hefty spread (-6.5 games), Sinner has covered that in every match so far despite being forced to two tiebreaks in one match and dropping a set in two others. Even in competitive battles, the danger of Sinner tossing in a dominant 6-1 or 6-2 set always makes him a threat to cover big numbers.

Still, backing Sinner to win by seven or more games feels dicey against an opponent he's frequently had tight sets against. While Jannik owns a lopsided 4-1 lifetime record versus Shelton, which includes winning four matches in a row by straight sets, every single one of their meetings has had one set go to a tiebreak.

With that in mind, rather than messing with a side, taking the over on a fairly low 32.5 total match games feels like the way to go.

This is further backed by Shelton racking up the tiebreaks in this Australian Open run. True to form, he's had at least one tiebreak in all five matches and has tallied seven total.

Shelton's tendency find himself in tiebreaks stems from him being a far better server than returner. Over the last 52 weeks on hard courts, the American has the tour's third-best serve rating but is just 59th in return rating (out of 69 qualified players). His serve has helped him produce the fourth-best service games won percentage (89.7%) in that sample.

Sinner and Shelton have played just one best-of-five match (2024 Wimbledon), and even though it was on grass, a surface Shelton has limited success and experience on, the match went 31 games and very nearly went to a fourth set -- due to, of course, a tiebreak.

While the American is a longshot to pull off an upset, he should be able to press the issue a bit further on his preferred surface, and particularly if he's able to steal a set, these two should sail over the total.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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