10 Hottest Teams Entering the 2025 Men’s College Basketball Tournament

The college basketball season is a long one. From November to March, teams compile wins and losses over more than 30 games with dreams of making the tournament and winning a national championship.

While overall records can help teams earn a spot in the tournament, they are not always an accurate representation of how a team is performing heading into March.

In a single-elimination format, form matters. Teams need to be at their best right now to prevent an early exit and avoid a long offseason of wondering what could have been.

Using Bart Torvik’s BARTHAG metric -- an indicator of a team’s odds of beating an average D1 team -- let’s check out the 10 hottest teams, looking at only data since the start of February.

Hottest Teams in the Men’s College Basketball Tournament

Duke (1 Seed, East Region)

According to Bart Torvik, Duke has been the country's best team since the beginning of February, going 13-1 over this span while ranking 1st in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense. Even with Cooper Flagg missing most of the ACC tournament due to an ankle injury, the Blue Devils still took home the title this past weekend.

This stretch has included a 4-1 record in Quad 1 games, with a six-point road loss to Clemson being their only slip up. For context, Clemson would land 12th on this list, so they've been on a pretty good roll themselves.

The main concern for the Blue Devils is the health of Flagg, but coach Jon Scheyer stated it's "full steam ahead" for the star freshman and is optimistic he'll be able to play on Friday.

Florida (1 Seed, West Region)

It's no secret the SEC was absolutely stacked this season, and it's telling that 14 of its 16 members qualified for this year's tournament. Therefore, it isn't shocking to see Florida rank second in Bart Torvik's power ratings after going 12-2 since February 1st.

Most impressively, the Gators went 8-2 in Quad 1 games in this timeframe, which included wins over Auburn, Alabama (twice), and Tennessee. In fact, including their run to an SEC tournament title, Florida comes in having won six straight Quad 1 games.

Florida sure looks like they'll be a force to be reckoned with this month.

Houston (1 Seed, Midwest Region)

Houston went 13-1 overall and 9-1 in Quad 1 games down the stretch, and they won the Big 12 tournament title without much trouble. During this time, they've boasted the country's 4th-best adjusted defense while maintaining the 12th-best adjusted offense.

The Cougars actually last lost on February 1st, meaning they're riding a 13-game win streak. Incredibly, that's their only loss since the end of November, too.

Alabama (2 Seed, East Region)

Alabama is the first curious team that pops up on this list, as they haven't exactly been a "hot" team in any conventional sense after wrapping up their campaign with a 7-5 record over their last dozen games.

Still, there are few more battle-tested squads than the Crimson Tide, and they rate this highly due to the gauntlet of elite SEC teams they faced across the last month and a half. Although they went 5-5 in Quad 1 matchups over this span, four of those five losses were against Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida (twice) -- all 1 or 2 seeds -- and one of those victories was on the road against Auburn.

Alabama can rack up points with the best of them, ranking fourth in adjusted offense and second in adjusted tempo over their last 12 games. Their recent record might not leap off the page, but they could do plenty of damage now that they don't need to face the SEC's best every week.

Auburn (1 Seed, South Region)

Entering March, Auburn had just two losses all season, and there was little doubt they would be the tournament's top overall seed. However, they've since lost three of their last four, so much like Alabama, they don't exactly seem particularly "hot" right now.

But losing to Texas A&M, Alabama (in OT), and Tennessee can be forgiven, and they still finished 9-4 from February 1st onward while rating as Bart Torvik's fifth-best team.

The Tigers are a group we probably don't want to judge too harshly for a few hiccups over the past two weeks, and they still finished the full season with the most Quad 1 wins (16).

Texas Tech (3 Seed, West Region)

Texas Tech went 9-4 down the stretch but won four of their last five games with Quad 1 victories over Kansas, Arizona State, and Baylor. They also won at Houston on February 1st, showing they should be able to hang with the tournament's very best seeds.

The Red Raiders have earned high marks in adjusted offense (6th) over their last 13 games, but their adjusted defense (47th) could end up being their downfall against top-flight competition. Even so, earning the sixth-best ranking in Bart Torvik's power ratings in that sample shows a deep run shouldn't be ruled out.

Tennessee (2 Seed, Midwest Region)

While Tennessee came just short of an SEC championship after falling to Florida in the title game, they finished 10-3 overall and 7-3 in Quad 1 games from February onward -- an outstanding feat in their lethal conference. The Volunteers also showed nice balance in this timeframe, ranking inside the top 20 in both adjusted offense and defense.

Recent wins include two teams we've already seen on this list -- Auburn and Alabama -- showing how dangerous Tennessee could be in this year's bracket.

Maryland (4 Seed, West Region)

Maryland is basically the opposite of Texas Tech, ranking 1st in adjusted defense but just 47th offensively since February 1st. They went 8-3 in this sample with four Quad 1 victories (at Nebraska, at Penn St., at Michigan, vs. Illinois), and it's a promising sign that all four came on the road or at a neutral site.

Considering the Terrapins rank 25th in adjusted defense over the full season, their recent improved defensive play could be a sign that they'll be a tough out despite a non-elite offense.

Wisconsin (3 Seed, East Region)

Much like Tennessee, Wisconsin has snuck inside the top 20 in both adjusted offense and defense since the start of February, and there's been a notable improvement on defense, as they're 58th for the full campaign but are up to 17th down the stretch.

The Badgers posted a 10-4 record in our sample, and that included going 6-3 in Quad 1 games. While they came up just short against Michigan in the Big Ten title game, finishing runner-up in their conference tournament has to be considered a positive, as well.

Gonzaga (8 Seed, Midwest Region)

Gonzaga rounds out our top 10, and they're the only team on this list that isn't a 4 seed or better. The Bulldogs lost just twice in their final 11 games -- both to Saint Mary's -- and they avenged those losses by defeating the Gaels in the WCC championship last week. Bart Torvik places them 25th in adjusted offense and 12th in adjusted defense over this stretch.

The lone concern for Gonzaga is they went 3-2 in Quad 1 matchups across those 11 games and 5-5 over the entire campaign. Despite that, they project as one of the most underrated teams in the field, so they could be a dangerous underdog against Houston if both teams advance to the second round.

You can also download our FREE college basketball printable bracket.

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