10 Fantasy Football Busts: The 49ers' Offense Has Too Many Options

We all want to find fantasy football superstars late in our drafts, but we also want to avoid players who won't return enough fantasy value for their draft positions in the early rounds.

You know, players who we would consider fantasy football busts.

To help avoid some potential draft-day regret, here are 10 players we think are being drafted too early.

All players are inside the top 75 in average draft position (ADP) via FantasyPros' consensus ADP.

10 Fantasy Football Busts for 2023

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks

FantasyPros ADP: 35.3

While it's really hard to isolate running back ability, the metrics we have on running back efficiency weren't exactly kind to Kenneth Walker III in 2022. According to NextGenStats' model, Walker III had a rushing success rate of just 33.7%, the lowest rate of any back with at least 200 carries and below his team's average of 34.8%. Not helping matters: ProFootballFocus ranks the Seattle Seahawks' offensive line 30th entering 2023.

Walker III churned out an impressive rookie season thanks to explosive plays rather than consistency, and he earned just a 6.9% target share (2.3 targets and 10.5 yards per game).

Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet, one of the better receiving back prospects in recent history, in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

For Walker III to build on his rookie season, he needs to fend off Charbonnet, increase his consistency, contribute more as a pass-catcher, and have Geno Smith put together another strong season. — Brandon Gdula

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers

FantasyPros ADP: 69.3

This has nothing to do with Brandon Aiyuk's ability -- I think he’s a good player -- but it is all about his situation. Aiyuk is in a San Francisco 49ers offense that is loaded with playmakers as four Niners -- Aiyuk, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel -- had a target share of at least 19.8% last year.

With so many mouths to feed in an offense that had the seventh-lowest pass rate last season (51.3%), Aiyuk’s path to upside just isn’t there. — Austan Kas

Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers

FantasyPros ADP: 64.3

Jordan Love is essentially a rookie starting quarterback and has two second-year receivers and a rookie tight end as pass-catching options.

The Packers have the eighth-ranked offensive line, per ProFootballFocus, and behind the duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, the run game is their strength.

This all will limit Christian Watson potential this season. A "rookie" QB at the helm doesn't set up to be a highly efficient passing offense. — Tom Vecchio

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

FantasyPros ADP: 16.7

If it wasn’t for the lore around him, Derrick Henry wouldn’t be a second-round pick in fantasy this year.

At 29 years old, Henry put forth 685 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) during the 2019 and 2020 seasons, but he’s mustered just 114 RYOE in the past two seasons and is now rushing behind the worst offensive line in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus.

He’s never thrived as a pass-catcher, and the Tennessee Titans are projected to trail often enough if a 7.5-win total at FanDuel Sportsbook is any indication. Plus, those passes will come from a quarterback spot with plenty of uncertainty.

The Titans also added two key figures who can hurt his fantasy outlook. DeAndre Hopkins will certainly merit attention on the perimeter from his playcaller, and Tennessee also added Tyjae Spears from Tulane with substantial third-round capital for a tailback.

Henry’s fantasy upside has been solely tied to his efficiency and a godly workload. He figures to see declines in both entering 2023. — Austin Swaim

Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans

FantasyPros ADP: 44.7

As a rookie, Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce hit the ground running, stealing away the team’s RB1 role from incumbent Rex Burkhead within a few weeks.

Unfortunately, this year he’ll have more competition for touches in the Texans’ backfield than a 32-year-old journeyman. The team signed former Buffalo Bills back Devin Singletary to a contract with enough guaranteed money on it to imply he’s a part of their plans.

Pierce doesn’t really catch passes, either, so he’ll have a hard time returning value at his current ADP without having a stranglehold on the Texans’ rush attempts. — Aidan McGrath

D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks

FantasyPros ADP: 34.7

Despite seeing 22 more targets than Tyler Lockett in 2021, D.K. Metcalf outscored him by only 2.9 total fantasy points. Last season, Lockett outscored Metcalf by 1.55 fantasy points per game despite seeing 24 fewer targets.

After two seasons of not being able to separate from Lockett, Metcalf will now be competing for targets with both Lockett and an elite prospect in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With Metcalf not expected to see an increase in targets this season, he would need to see a dramatic boost in efficiency to provide significant upside on his current ADP. Consider playing Seattle’s offense through Lockett or Smith-Njigba, at lower ADPs, instead. — Zack Bussiere

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens

FantasyPros ADP: 51.7

An offense that features an expected 1,000-yard rusher at QB instantly makes the rest of the backfield play second fiddle. Insert J.K. Dobbins.

There’s no question that Dobbins is a guy who can make things happen on the ground (5.7 yards per carry in 2022), but the continued injury woes and change in the offense should limit any and all expectations heading into this year.

He’s currently ranked as the RB20, which means he’s being drafted as an RB2. The "bust" tag wouldn’t be considered if he was going as an RB3 or lower, but with Lamar Jackson back and a more pass-heavy offense expected under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, I’d temper expectations on Dobbins. — Scott Edwards

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

FantasyPros ADP: 40.3

Samuel is one of the most electric players with the ball in his hands in the league. However, he had an average depth of target of just 4.4 yards last season.

Christian McCaffrey will now be with the team for the entire season, and Elijah Mitchell is a reliable backup, so it’s unlikely Deebo sees a ton of rushing work this season.

He will have to turn those short targets into big plays to reach his ceiling -- which he is capable of doing -- but it’s not a bet I want to make at an ADP of 40.3. — Nick Vazquez

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

FantasyPros ADP: 63.0

After suffering a torn MCL in the second half of last season, Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts is still looking for that major NFL fantasy year.

In 2021, he did well as a rookie to compile 1,026 receiving yards on 9.3 yards per target, but the tight end from Florida has only scored 3 total touchdowns over 27 career games. Pitts gets some slack for his noted injury.

However, the Falcons are still without a definitive answer at quarterback.

Desmond Ridder will likely begin the season as starter, but his trajectory as a passer in the NFL is uncertain. Also, there are more mouths to feed on offense than previous years: Drake London is a dominant wideout while newcomers Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller round out the receiving corps. And that is all before mentioning rookie tailback Bijan Robinson.

Pitts has the frame and skills to thrive on Sundays, but his lack of touchdown production is concerning from a fantasy perspective. With plenty of quality tight ends in today’s game, I will not beat down the door to select Pitts with anything before the 75th selection. — Gabriel Santiago

Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings

FantasyPros ADP: 57.7

For the past three years, Alexander Mattison has been one of the most coveted running back handcuffs in the sport. Minnesota’s longtime No. 2 back has shined in fantasy when Dalvin Cook has missed time, and with Cook gone, Mattison is getting a ton of pre-draft buzz.

But are we sure he’s even good?

Mattison hasn’t rushed for more than 3.8 yards per carry in either of the last two seasons and has just two 20-plus yard runs over that span. Leave him to your leaguemates in favor of higher upside options like Kyle Pitts (ADP 58), Drake London (60), or even Isiah Pacheco (ADP 72). — Aidan Cotter

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.