Who Should You Back to Win This Season's Super Bowl MVP Award?
The NFL playoffs are in full swing, but it's not too late to target futures markets. Over on FanDuel Sportsbook, you can find Divisional Specials, Playoff Specials, and Super Bowl odds.
For this article, we will turn our attention to the Super Bowl LVIII MVP odds. Eight teams remain in contention for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, which means we have plenty of eligible candidates who could make a run for the Super Bowl MVP.
Before we get into the odds, let's take a look at how this award has shaken out in years past.
Dating back to the award's inauguration in 1967, here's how the Super Bowl MVP trophy has been doled out among positions -- 32 quarterbacks, 8 wide receivers, 7 running backs, 4 linebackers, 2 defensive ends, 2 safeties, 1 cornerback, 1 defensive tackle, and 1 kicker.
Almost as many quarterbacks (32) have won this award as every other position combined (34), so it's clear that QBs have a competitive advantage. A running back has not won this award since 1998 (Terrell Davis), whereas five wide receivers have been crowned Super Bowl MVP since 2005.
With that, let's check out the Super Bowl LVIII MVP Odds and take a look at some interesting options.
All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Super Bowl MVP Odds
Player | Team | FanDuel Sportsbook Super Bowl LVIII MVP Odds |
---|---|---|
Lamar Jackson | BAL | +330 |
Brock Purdy | SF | +370 |
Josh Allen | BUF | +600 |
Patrick Mahomes | KC | +800 |
Christian McCaffrey | SF | +850 |
Jared Goff | DET | +1200 |
Jordan Love | GB | +3400 |
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
It's hard to imagine a world where the Baltimore Ravens win the Big Game and Lamar Jackson doesn't take home the Super Bowl MVP. His proficiency in the pass and run game led this Baltimore team to a league-best 13-4 record, and you'd be hard-pressed to locate a Ravens victory in which Jackson wasn't the standout.
With that being said, Baltimore's +270 Super Bowl odds are awfully close to the +330 odds here. Only 48.5% of Super Bowl MVP winners have been quarterbacks, and while Jackson presents us with a unique style of dominance, it's hard to find solid value at this +330 number.
It's perfectly valid to be high on this Ravens team. They have the shortest AFC Championship odds at +115 and have given us every reason to trust them. But if I'm looking for value in the futures market with Baltimore, I'd probably prefer to side with a Ravens Super Bowl victory at +270 or take a chance on players such as Mark Andrews (+9500), Zay Flowers (+13000), or Gus Edwards (+13000) to win the big game's MVP award.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
With Brock Purdy, we have a bit more breathing room between his Super Bowl MVP odds and the San Francisco 49ers' +175 Super Bowl odds.
However, six players on the 49ers find themself in the top 17 of Super Bowl MVP odds. This makes sense given the market's faith in this Niners team, but Purdy seems to have the stiffest competition within his team to take home this trophy.
I'm finding more value in Christian McCaffrey (+850). If San Francisco makes it to Super Bowl Sunday, I don't think any football fans would be shocked to see CMC go for a 100-plus yard, multiple-touchdown outing. He sees ample opportunities in both the run and pass game and could carry this San Fran offense more so than Purdy.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will be granted a home game this weekend, forcing Patrick Mahomes to embark on a first-ever road playoff game. Buffalo's Super Bowl odds stand at +490, and given my faith in Allen to win at Highmark Stadium this weekend, I do see value in his odds at +600.
Perhaps what moves me the most about Allen is his lack of in-team competition. James Cook (+9000) doesn't scare me, and the uncertainty surrounding Stefon Diggs (+7500) isn't too encouraging. Diggs can erupt, but he hasn't seen the end zone in six games and has gone 12 straight games without recording 100-plus yards.
If you have faith in the Bills to take home the Lombardi Trophy, you may want to consider targeting Allen in this market, too.
Others To Consider
A glance at FanDuel Sportsbook's Super Bowl odds and Super Bowl MVP odds shows little separation between a team's championship odds and their respective starting quarterback's Super Bowl LVIII MVP chances.
Only 48.5% of Super Bowl MVP winners have been quarterbacks, but if we look at a more recent sample, we can see that 64.0% of Super Bowl MVP winners in the last 25 years have been QBs. If we take this history as bible, then we can see that the Super Bowl MVP odds on most quarterbacks might not getting enough juice -- though the likes of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes (+800) are hard to deny.
As wide receivers go, Brandon Aiyuk (+5000), Amon-Ra St. Brown (+9500), Zay Flowers (+13000) and Rashee Rice (+18000) are catching my eye as solid longshot options. Sure, they'll have a tough time competing against their respective signal-callers, but in the last five years alone, we've seen two wide receivers take home this award (Cooper Kupp and Julian Edelman).
George Kittle (+10000) and Travis Kelce (+13000) are a pair of intriguing tight ends to consider. Though we've yet to see a tight end crowned as the Super Bowl MVP, we do know that Kittle can go haywire, and Kelce can never be counted out come playoff time.
At running back beyond CMC, Isiah Pacheco (+21000) is another option to consider. He plays a major role in Kansas City's offense, and though we haven't seen a running back win a Super Bowl MVP in quite some time, we can't rule out the possibility of a monster game on the ground for KC's top back.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.