UFC Paris: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 11 fights at UFC Paris: Gane vs. Spivac, taking place at the Accor Arena in Paris, France on Saturday.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti vs. Zarah Fairn

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Jacqueline Cavalcanti hasn't faced an opponent with a UFC appearance yet, but she will have faced two after this bout and after Nora Cornolle makes her debut two fights later.

In fairness to Cavalcanti, she did win that fight with Cornolle at 23 years old, so there's already far more potential for the young Portuguese fighter to make it in the UFC. She'll have to clear this hurdle with Zarah Fairn, who is a 36-year-old that has laid claim to being the worst fighter at women's 145 pounds for several years.

However, Fairn gave herself one more chance to win in her home country in her last "loss" to Josi Nunes (3-0 UFC). As a +500 underdog, Fairn used her five-inch reach advantage to secure a +15 striking differential. She lost to Nunes on power but landed 46% of her significant strikes and defended 52%, which is excellent work against a successful fighter at present.

Cavalcanti has made it to a decent domestic promotion with PFL in 2022, and though she had a claim to potentially winning her fight, she was hurt badly in the second round by Martina Jindrova and didn't get the nod. Even worse, Jindrova has been destroyed in three straight PFL losses since that bout.

These are both comparably sized former featherweights that might have a bit of trouble making 135 pounds in this one.

Even if the younger Cavalcanti might be improving and should win, this betting line is way too wide when she hasn't put a result of note on paper yet. Rather, Fairn might use the experience she's gained against two former title contenders to finally score a UFC dub.

Betting Verdict

• Fairn's moneyline (+300) is insane when she just went the distance and outstruck an accomplished, multi-time UFC winner. Even if you'd favor Cavalcanti on projected improvement, she's the biggest favorite on the card. Huh?
• Over 2.5 rounds is -130 here, and Calvalcanti's pro finishing rate is a pedestrian 60.0%. That only further adds value to Fairn's moneyline.

DFS Verdict

• Out of necessity, I'll take Fairn with a chance to win at $9. Her salary goes a LONG way to opening up access to the several excellent favorites on the card.

Farid Basharat vs. Kleidson Rodrigues

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Issues with weight cutting have likely thrust Kleidson Rodrigues into a spot where he doesn't want to be here.

Men's flyweight was dissolved in 2018 for a brief hiatus, so the division isn't as deep -- in general -- as a 135-pound division that's existed since 2014. Rodrigues had a decent trajectory at 125 with a split decision loss to CJ Vergara (3-2 UFC) followed by a knockout win over Shannon Ross (0-2 UFC), who suffered a similar fate in July before being cut.

His +3.00 striking success rate (SSR) is indicative of the quick, lopsided win. He landed 56% of his significant strikes on Vergara but defended a poor 45% of the attempts coming back at him, so his 49% striking D overall is pretty weak. Rodrigues has also defended two of three takedowns he's faced.

The problem for him here is that Farid Basharat hasn't put a foot out of place in a tougher division. He holds a +3.37 SSR with excellent striking accuracy (63%) and defense (60%). He's also landed 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy and defended 83% from opponents.

Basharat made Da'Mon Blackshear (2-2-1 UFC) appear to be a future cut from the roster, but Blackshear nearly scoring two wins in seven days earlier this month has vehemently proven that's not the case.

Rodrigues is a fast, dynamic striker who has the hand speed to make miracles happen, but his defense is a concern -- especially ceding four inches of reach. At worst, Rodrigues ceded two takedowns in his fight on Dana White's Contender Series, and the Afghan should be able to take down the smaller man and coast to a win.

Betting Verdict

• Farid's brother, Javid, also fights in UFC, and the two have miraculously been to five decisions in five fights despite dominating every second. They'll break someone eventually; I'll keep targeting inside-the-distance (ITD) props (+220) on them until it happens.
• Under 2.5 rounds (+154) might be the superior wager when Rodrigues' path here is seemingly a technical knockout when striking. It's good insurance compared to Basharat ITD.

DFS Verdict

• Basharat's decision-heavy nature hasn't made him an amazing fantasy plug historically, but he's put forth an excellent pace of fantasy points per minute (4.68 excl. bonuses) if it were to come against the smaller man here.

Joselyne Edwards vs. Nora Cornolle

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

I'm forced into the "tape" world this week with several newcomers, but Nora Cornolle takes the cake for the worst footage of any of them.

Two fights ago, Cornolle quickly rolled out of a headlock to flatten her opponent (Sanaa Mandar) and win via TKO. Mandar is 0-1 professionally. In her last bout, she was losing before Hassna Gaber (4-3) suffered a leg injury. In a promotion like UAE Warriors, these just aren't strong results to suggest she'll win at MMA's top level, but the Frenchwoman will get a chance to prove me wrong in her home country.

The fact she's just a short underdog here tells you how badly UFC bettors are looking to fade Joselyne Edwards after a fortunate split decision against Lucille Pudilova that most believe she did not deserve. In fairness to Joselyne, she had a +17 striking differential in that one when the name of the game is damage -- not control.

Edwards has now beaten two straight multi-time UFC winners as a result, which is palpable success at the highest level. She's outstruck all six of her UFC foes at distance -- including the now-ranked Karol Rosa. Rosa and Jessica-Rose Clark (4-5 UFC) were able to exploit her poor takedown defense to win, but Edwards is improving there, stuffing 15 of 18 takedown attempts faced since then.

Most importantly, Cornolle hasn't shown a willingness or ability to secure takedowns regionally, and she's got a Muay Thai base. If this is a striking match, I don't know how you side with the newcomer over Edwards (+1.82 SSR), and Joselyne actually has landed two UFC takedowns, so you'd have to give her the nod if this fight hits the mat.

This betting line feels like a steal.

Betting Verdict

• If Edwards' moneyline (-120) is somehow too rich for your taste, I'll be on her inside-the-distance prop (+430) when it's possible she's a significantly better fighter in all areas. I've scoured the planet for Cornolle's path to victory and cannot find one.

DFS Verdict

• This is another place where many may choose to save salary. Over 2.5 rounds is -180 as Edwards has gone the distance in all six of her UFC fights. Personally, this is a tangible enough step back in competition to believe "La Pantera" ($15) can find her first UFC finish.

Ange Loosa vs. Rhys McKee

Welterweight (170 pounds)

America's favorite post-COVID punching bag is back.

Rhys McKee was on the wrong side of history when Khamzat Chimaev (6-0 UFC) punched his lights out for a record second win in 10 days. Hopes for a better sophomore effort were squashed by Alex Morono (12-5 UFC), who amassed a +52 striking differential and 3 takedowns. McKee's brutal strength of schedule always left the argument for a second stint, and he'll begin it against Ange Loosa.

Loosa has also faced stiff competition. He was the unfortunate one to draw the now-ranked Jack Della Maddalena (6-0 UFC) on the Contender Series, and he took a debut on extremely short notice and lost a decision to Mounir Lazzez (2-2 UFC). Loosa got on the board by surviving a wild fight in Utah last fall against A.J. Fletcher (1-2 UFC).

When with UFC, McKee's problems were all defensive. He absorbed an insane 11.90 significant strikes per minute, and his 43% striking D and 20% takedown D were both awful. The Morono fight is particularly concerning, defending just 46% of his strikes with a six-inch reach edge.

Loosa will only cede four inches of reach, and he's mustered a much better 49% striking D. Of note, he's also landed three total takedowns and should have a pronounced edge over the Irish striker in the grappling department.

McKee earned his initial shot with UFC from Cage Warriors and immediately returned to the promotion after exiting. His all-offense style works well there, but you can easily find clips of him wobbled and defending poorly in recent bouts.

Therefore, I'm not exactly sure he's improved enough to best a durable, competitive athlete that will also have a takedown threat. McKee struggled regionally against Justin Burlinson as he landed six takedowns in their 2022 bout before getting finished (as Burlinson did in his only UFC-affiliated appearance).

Betting Verdict

• Loosa has been to a decision in six straight pro fights, and McKee has only been finished twice in 17 pro bouts. These are both really durable athletes; I like over 2.5 rounds (-136) in this spot.
• Backing Loosa by points (+195) would be the best tie into that theory, but you can't possibly write him off for a finish with McKee's defensive shortcomings. His moneyline (-172) is the safest bet despite the juice.

DFS Verdict

• This card is starved of really any viable underdogs at all, so I expect McKee ($13) to be extremely popular given his knockout streak in Cage Warriors. I just sooner see an grind of a win for Loosa ($18).

Taylor Lapilus vs. Caolan Loughran

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Here's where the game of musical chairs began. Taylor Lapilus' opponent pulled out with visa issues, so UFC shuffled the deck to keep him -- and an 11th fight -- on the card.

Lapilus actually has had a stint with UFC already from 2015 to 2016. He went 3-1 with a +1.77 SSR, so there was tangible success despite the fact the three foes he beat combined for a 6-6 record against all others. Lapilus also knocked out Nate Maness (3-2 UFC) regionally in 2019.

There's a good chance the Frenchman sticks for a second stint, but this is no easy first draw. Caolan Loughran was originally scheduled for a much safer matchup as the latest undefeated Irish prospect to transition over from Cage Warriors, following in the footsteps of Conor McGregor and Ian Garry.

At 5'6", Loughran is a tank -- and he hits like one. Loughran did immediate damage to his last opponent as both men landed, but his punching power was a significant difference. "The Don" also showcased excellent takedown defense, which will likely be as crucial for him as it was with McGregor and Garry.

Lapilus' first opponent, Muin Gafarov (0-1 UFC), didn't enter with a title in a premier promotion like Cage Warriors, so I'm not writing off the underdog as potentially a better opponent.

Ultimately, this promotion seeks and protects anything that has hints of McGregor. We've seen that through Garry's insignificant level of competition. I don't ultimately believe they'd have made this matchup without the belief he can win it, and that's really enticing with +146 odds.

Betting Verdict

• I haven't made a decision to officially bet Loughran's moneyline, but I might just stick to a smaller dart at his knockout prop (+420). Lapilus has never been finished, but that appears to be the striker's game much more so than winning minutes.

DFS Verdict

• Personally, this is where Loughran ($14) is most enticing and his ceiling is best served. Lapilus topped 80 FanDuel points just once in four tries in his first stint. If he's winning, it may be via an uglier decision than a rout.

Morgan Charrière vs. Manolo Zecchini

Men's Featherweight (145 pounds)

One of these fighters is a Cage Warriors champion at this weight class, and the other was swiftly knocked out in his first (and only) Cage Warriors appearance to date. That explains the wide betting line.

Perhaps more than any other French native on this card, Morgan Charrière is in a favorable spot for a fan-friendly moment. Charrière is the current CW champion before surrendering that title to join UFC, and he's got an interesting resume. An 18-9 record seems fairly average, but 8 of his 9 losses have come via decision, and the most recent losses were by split and majority decision, so he's a break or two from a massive winning streak. His only loss by finish was in 2015 to a heel hook.

With only one submission on his record, Italian striker Manolo Zecchini isn't exactly a threat for one of those, but he earned style points to get this call to face Charrière. Zecchini recorded an insane flying knee knockout with Venator FC, a smaller Italian promotion, in his last bout. UFC is a sucker for those type of highlights, showing high-level athleticism at worst.

As mentioned, Zecchini had just one appearance with the promotion that made Charrière a champion. He had his moments, wobbling Danny Mathiasen in the first round, but overall, Zecchini struggled to defend any of Mathiasen's grappling pressure, and he ultimately was flattened into a bad position and stopped via punches.

If you compare that to Charrière's work of going the distance -- and in a majority of circumstances, winning -- with some of the division's best, and it's easy to see why he's favored. With three wins via submission, "The Last Pirate" should be able to fall back on his grappling at worst here.

Betting Verdict

• With only three submission wins in 28 pro fights, Charrière's submission prop (+550) is incredibly intriguing. It's the one small angle I might take in a fight without data -- the exact type I prefer not to bet.

DFS Verdict

• Charrière has a significant experience advantage and has finished four of his last six wins. At +240 to win in the first round, he's got to be on the MVP radar at $22.

William Gomis vs. Yanis Ghemmouri

Men's Featherweight (145 pounds)

Yanis Ghemmouri was initially set to draw Loughran in his UFC debut, but he's moving up to featherweight to keep William Gomis on the card after Gomis' opponent withdrew.

Ghemmouri was a +255 underdog to the Irishman, so he's not really risking a lot while moving up to face the 2-0 "Jaguar" at 145 pounds. His most competitive regional footage against a fighter than hasn't sniffed UFC is a bit concerning, getting dropped and wobbled in the second round. There weren't many signing up at bantamweight's entry level to fight Loughran, but "The Desert Warrior" likely just wanted to find his way onto this card in his home country.

Gomis shares that same home country, having picked up a win in Paris last October over Jarno Errens before silencing Francis Marshall in Las Vegas earlier this year. As his fantasy score would indicate, Gomis hasn't been the most exciting fighter to this point, but he's maintained an 81% striking defense and 71% takedown D to not face much trouble or adversity.

We don't have an official reach on Ghemmouri, but he's ceding three inches in height to Gomis and at least that in reach as a natural bantamweight. With a significant advantage in experience as the larger fighter, this could be Gomis' true "arrival" to casual fans with a stunning performance.

At the same time, no one should be surprised if this is a sluggish, tight striking match where both men silently agree to see another day.

Betting Verdict

• I see Gomis (-215) as a particularly safe parlay piece in this one. He's turned back two prospects with more UFC success to this point, and Ghemmouri's regional footage makes it appear he was a sacrificial lamb for the smaller Loughran.
• With minimal action, Gomis' first two bouts have gone the distance, and this one is -200 to do so. I prefer projecting an early finish given the drop in competition.

DFS Verdict

• It'll be hard to play "contrarian" favorites on this card, but Gomis ($20) should be one with two fantasy clunkers thus far. Facing a bantamweight in his home country, this is as good of a spot as he'll get in UFC for one.

Volkan Oezdemir vs. Bogdan Guskov

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

This fight should look like Rock 'Em, Sock 'Em robots for as long as it lasts.

Volkan Oezdemir lives to stand and bang. He's landed just 0.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, preferring to exercise a +0.56 SSR when he can. "No Time" lived up to that monicker by securing early knockouts in three of his first four UFC wins, but his last two wins have come via decision.

Oezdemir was taken down seven times by Nikita Krylov in his last bout, and that also was his undoing against Daniel Cormier and Anthony Smith. Both finished him on the mat. It's why his initial opponent here, Azamat Murzakanov, was a striker that would give him the fight he wanted. Though UFC had to search for a replacement, they found another in Bogdan Guskov.

Guskov is getting plenty of respect here solely from what appears to be fight-changing power with his punches or elbows. Toughness is one of the few traits you usually can gauge at a regional level, and I've yet to see a Guskov opponent take a clean shot and survive. He's 16-2 with all 16 wins coming via an early finish.

As you can see, the newcomer from Uzbekistan is getting plenty of love in the betting market to have a 40.0% implied chance to beat the ranked Oezdemir in his debut. He was initially slated for the Contender Series with a bright future, but in his prime, they needed an injury replacement, so he'll take an early bite at the apple.

Through a 12-fight UFC run, Oezdemir has taken plenty of damage that Guskov hasn't to this point. If Guskov's footage holds, it'll be a frantic battle of punches until one man falls. I just can't help but be drawn to the underdog's punching power in that type of brawl.

Betting Verdict

• Guskov by first-round knockout (+600) is likely how I'll bet this fight. If his power translates from regional footage, it'll be a quick night at the office. If not, the veteran likely turns him away.
• This fight is appropriately -480 to not go the distance. I see no value there.

DFS Verdict

• Beyond finding underdogs, finding ones with mammoth ceilings on FanDuel is nearly impossible. Guskov ($11) has a clear and obvious path to points even if it doesn't end up working out, and most in his salary tier can't even say that.

Benoit Saint Denis vs. Thiago Moises

Lightweight (155 pounds)

This could be another confusing chapter of Thiago Moises' confusing UFC career.

Moises defeated Melky Costa (1-1 UFC) earlier this year in Brazil, but Costa was a featherweight in on short notice. It's really hard to gauge the former ranked lightweight's skill level when his only two ranked opponents demolished him. To further the ambiguity, Moises was KO'd by Joel Alvarez (5-2 UFC) and had a -43 striking differential in a stunning decision win over Bobby Green. Green -- pretty clearly to most -- should have won the fight.

He's really the perfect test for Benoit Saint Denis, who is 3-0 at lightweight after a disastrous debut at 170 pounds. His -82 striking differential in that fight still haunts his overall peripherals, but he's held a +18 striking differential at 155 pounds with all wins coming before the start of the third round.

Saint Denis entered UFC as a grappling ace and hasn't been professionally submitted, and he'll have three inches in reach when Moises has huge issues when striking as is. He's landed just 2.47 significant strikes per minute with poor 39% accuracy. Moises has been far better when getting to his wrestling, but Saint Denis' 85% takedown D has been stellar in either weight class.

"BSD" has been at his worst against a volume striker, and we've never seen Moises score a knockout. While the grappling could be pretty even here, I believe Saint Denis is a favorite -- and swelling -- due to a 2.30% knockdown rate. That's power that Moises just melted against three fights ago.

Betting Verdict

• Because 9 of Saint Denis' 11 pro wins have come via submission, I feel excellent about his knockout odds (+330) here. This could be a stalemate grappling where Moises tries because he's being significantly outlanded at distance.

DFS Verdict

• Moises has fought tougher competition, so I could see many turning to the underdog, but he's also been destroyed by it. I'd rather back the recent finisher and better FanDuel scorer at $16.

Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

"Thug Rose" is back, and this fight will be a massive statement on the skill gap between women's strawweight and flyweight.

Rose Namajunas has claimed the 115-pound belt three separate times, so she clearly established herself in the upper echelon there before making this jump after an embarrassing case of the yips. She landed just 37 significant strikes in 25 minutes against Carla Esparza with a massive efficiency advantage but never committed to throwing more.

Namajunas has always been tricky with below-average striking volume (3.66 significant strikes landed per minute) and a pedestrian 60% takedown defense. It's how she often finds herself in the razor-thin decisions, and another could be on the way with Manon Fiorot here.

"The Beast" doesn't really leave things to chance, though. Fiorot has put forth 6.58 significant strikes per minute with better 42% accuracy, and it hasn't come at the cost of striking defense (71%). Fiorot has dispatched Katlyn Chookagian, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Jennifer Maia behind those peripherals -- three ladies who will have fought for a UFC title by the end of 2023.

Namajunas is the more well-known name here, but she's got far more questions to answer. This is her first fight at flyweight, which could compromise both her own power and make her more susceptible to Fiorot's. Plus, her takedown D was exploited by Weili Zhang, and a larger athlete can do the same.

If Rose wins this fight, it's indicative of a skill gap between the two divisions that the peripheral stats otherwise don't account for. After Zhang's last embarrassing title challenge, I believe the two are fairly equal on talent, and that makes Fiorot an easy call here.

Betting Verdict

• I'm hoping this line shifts toward the public underdog as we roll closer to Saturday, but even if not, Fiorot is a parlay piece I feel comfortable backing. I've been fading Namajunas' shaky peripherals for years; why stop now against a larger opponent?
• Namajunas' only official UFC loss by early finish was a freak concussion on a takedown slam. She's insanely durable, and Fiorot has gone to three straight decisions. This fight is fairly -176 to go the distance.

DFS Verdict

• This is where things get a bit closer. Many of Saturday's favorites are expected to win inside the distance. Is Fiorot ($19) going to put enough striking volume on Rose's 60% striking defense to pay off that salary in a decision?
• I wouldn't blame anyone for looking at Namajunas ($12) without many salary-savers viable.

Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac

Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

There is no 2023 fight that made me feel dumber than Ciryl Gane's last bout against Jon Jones.

All week, I gassed up Gane's +2.83 SSR -- which is still magnificent. Gane, as a heavyweight striker, has the movement and footwork of a middleweight. He's exceptional and one of a kind there, landing 59% of his significant strikes and defending 62% of incoming ones. Jones was a prolific striker at 205 pounds, so it set up to be an all-time classic.

However, I really thought Jones would struggle to get Gane to the mat. After all, he was just 6 for his last 23 takedown attempts, so a larger man should be tough work, right? Wrong. Jones easily took Gane down twice, leaving his takedown defense at 45% overall. He also submitted Gane with a simple guillotine choke that would transition a white belt to a blue belt.

UFC couldn't have given Gane a more appropriate landing spot after falling in that title bout. Serghei Spivac proves to take advantage of Gane's weakness if it remains. He averages 5.05 takedowns per 15 minutes with remarkable 65% accuracy. He absolutely ragdolled Tai Tuivasa, Greg Hardy, Augusto Sakai, and Derrick Lewis to earn his top-10 ranking.

Primarily operating in close, both the striking accuracy (51%) and defense (55%) of Spivac are good despite lagging behind Gane. This sets up a wrester-versus-striker dynamic where there's a significant edge on the feet for the favorite, and Spivac should totally dust Ciryl if he can get things to the mat.

In just under six months, I don't think Gane has had enough time to prepare for this matchup. It was frighteningly easy for Jones to take him down and submit him, which is exactly how Spivac has been dismantling one-dimensional strikers to this point.

If "Bon Gamin" had more power to land a knockout before it happens, this would be a different discussion, but his 0.40% knockdown rate is well below the heavyweight average.

Betting Verdict

• Saving the best for last, Spivac (+144) is my favorite underdog on the card. Gane's takedown D is worse than either Tuivasa or Sakai, who Spivac mauled with ease.
• Gane's best path also appears to be the one Tom Aspinall took against Spivac -- a quick knockout. That makes under 2.5 rounds (-158) an appealing bet, as well.

DFS Verdict

• Scrounging for every dollar I can save in a build, it's phenomenal that I get my preferred main event fighter at $17. If this fight is prolonged, it's almost certainly Spivac in control. The striking will be too lopsided for him to survive long without securing takedowns.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.