UFC 304 Best Bets: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2, taking place at the Co-Op Live in Manchester, England on Saturday.

UFC 304 Betting Picks

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio

Prachnio to Win (+122)
Prachnio by Points (+320)

My model has crushed these early prelim line inefficiencies in recent weeks, and we'll hope Marcin Prachnio represents another.

The uninspiring 36-year-old light heavyweight doesn't have much punching power (0.20% knockdown rate) in a division known for finishes, and his 58% takedown D has cost him key fights against better grapplers. With Modestas Bukauskas sporting zero career UFC knockdowns or takedowns himself, those relative weaknesses don't matter here.

If this is just an efficiency game at distance, the Polish underdog should win it. His +2.31 striking success rate (SSR) dwarfs Bukauskas' -0.59 mark -- even accounting for a four-inch reach edge that'll help the favorite here. Prachnio's striking accuracy (55%) and defense (54%) are both 70th percentile or better in this division (min. five fights).

The model has Prachnio at 60.1% likely to win (-150 implied), and it believes 44.7% of the time (+125 implied) it happens on the cards. I agree with both verdicts when Prachnio has just one UFC knockdown and one win by KO/TKO. Both came against Ike Villanueva (1-5 UFC).

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape

Kape to Win (+136)

Originally scheduled for the pay-per-view main card, it was a bit concerning that Muhammad Mokaev and Manel Kape's fight was moved to the early prelims -- especially since Kape has missed weight three times in UFC. After both made weight on Friday, it could just be an effort to get English fans in their seats early, though.

The undefeated, 23-year-old Mokaev is a slight favorite here, but this is about as tough as a matchup as the grappling prodigy will face in UFC. Kape's 77% takedown D has stood strong through most challengers, and Mokaev didn't exactly pass through his first top-eight opponent with flying colors. Alex Perez stuffed 17 of his 20 takedown attempts in March amidst a split decision.

Meanwhile, in the striking realm, it's not close. Kape's striking accuracy (54%) and defense (59%) are among the best in the top 10, and he's got a gigantic 1.42% knockdown rate as the most significant power threat of Mokaev's career thus far.

I've actually got Kape as a slight favorite to win (50.5%), so this line traversing into significant plus money is too tempting to pass up.

Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil

McCann to Win Inside the Distance (+150)

This card isn't short on English favorites that got matchmaking favors, but Molly McCann's might be the most obvious and shameless.

McCann is a seven-time UFC winner that just dispatched Diana Belbita (2-5 UFC) inside the first round. That was her debut here at strawweight (115 pounds). Now, she'll take on an inexperienced Bruna Brasil, who sits 2-2 with the promotion. Both of her wins came over foes without a win themselves.

"Meatball" Molly is a heavy favorite because she's got Brasil covered in either realm. On the feet, McCann's +0.85 SSR in a better sample trumps Brasil's -0.98 SSR, and Bruna's 53% takedown defense is an even larger issue when McCann averages 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes with decent accuracy (38%).

Coming off a submission last fight, McCann also has two distance knockouts at a heavier weight class (125 pounds). Though unable to model Brasil's small sample, McCann has shown enough finishing tendencies to take the plus money here. All three of McCann's fights in her native England since the COVID break have ended early, too.

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes

Aspinall by Submission (+480)

Oddsmakers aren't expecting the first of Saturday's two title fights, an interim heavyweight clash, to be overly competitive. Tom Aspinall is a -420 favorite to win.

However, my model is slightly off the market in how it happens. After eight UFC appearances, the English big man hasn't seen a 7th minute in UFC, so the model is placing a win by decision at 0.3% likely. FanDuel Sportsbook (8.3%) is more generous to a wider range of outcomes, but even so, this choice seems to be down to a knockout or submission for him to win.

Even despite being lower on Aspinall's overall moneyline (69.3% implied), I see the submission as undervalued. His KO/TKO odds on FanDuel are -155, and a sub sits at +480. My model has Aspinall's knockout prop as 47.6% likely -- or roughly +110 implied. I've got the submission prop at 21.3% likely, which is roughly +365 implied.

Of the two, I'd rather target the submission, and it makes sense in theory, too. Averaging 5.72 takedowns per 15 minutes, Curtis Blaydes will likely look to take this fight to the mat despite Aspinall's 100% takedown D. He always does. When there, Aspinall averages 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes to Blaydes' 0.0.

It's extremely attractive to get over four-to-one with this prop when my anecdotal summation of this fight would be that Blaydes wrestles himself into trouble against a better jiu-jitsu practitioner.

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad

Muhammad to Win (+210)
Muhammad by Points (+340)

Belal Muhammad has a chance to make good on his nickname and truly make everyone "Remember the Name".

Muhammad gets a long-awaited title shot at 36 years old despite a 10-fight unbeaten streak, but he's never been a favorite of Dana White's with just one career win by finish, a 0.00% knockdown rate, and no career wins via submission. He's a point fighter.

Nonetheless, he should be able to keep pace with Leon Edwards in this title bout. Edwards just doesn't really separate from anybody, per a measly 2.75 significant strikes landed per minute and +13 striking differential in his last fight against the enegmatic Colby Covington. Muhammad's pace of landing significant strikes (4.55) is much better, and his 57% striking D is actually three percentage points higher than Leon's.

I expect Muhammad's 93% takedown D -- the best in the division -- to hold through Edwards' inefficient wrestling (34%) accuracy. I wouldn't be as sure about Leon, who has ceded 11 takedowns in his last three fights despite solid overall defense (70%). Belal averages 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes and is also working with Khabib Nurmagomedov through this camp to improve that area of his game.

FanDuel has this fight at -196 to go the distance (66.2% implied), and I'm a bit higher at 81.1% likely. With that the case, I've got Muhammad coming out ahead in a close fight 42.9% of the time and winning a decision 37.6% of the time.

Expect this one to be close, and Muhammad is undervalued to win it as most fans don't resonate with his point-fighting style.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.