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Trevor Lawrence Can Take the Next Step as a Top Fantasy QB

Scott Edwards Jr.
Scott Edwards Jr.@ScottEdwardsJr

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Trevor Lawrence Can Take the Next Step as a Top Fantasy QB

It's expected that Trevor Lawrence is going to make leaps on the real football field, so why should we expect anything less in fantasy football?

After a season where Lawrence showed why he was the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft by leading the Jacksonville Jaguars to the playoffs, expectations are through the roof heading into his third year. Entering his second season under the current coaching regime and getting a new shiny weapon at wide receiver, it's tough to not be excited for what is to come.

Here's a look at Lawrence's fantasy football projections and outlook for the season.

Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Football Projection

(All projections via numberFire.com)

Fantasy Points Projection: 305.9 points
Positional Ranking: QB8
Projected Stats:

  • 4,329.7 passing yards
  • 27.7 passing touchdowns
  • 9.1 interceptions
  • 286.7 rushing yards
  • 3.1 rushing touchdowns

Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Football Outlook

Return to Expectations in Sophomore Season

A first-overall pick couldn't have been given a worse start in their career than Trevor Lawrence was, navigating the Urban Meyer mess and all of that fall out from in 2021. Lawrence was considered in many ways the best quarterback prospect coming out of college since Andrew Luck. It couldn't have gone worse if the Jaguars tried.

But then, they fixed it. Bringing in former Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson to change things was perhaps the best decision Jacksonville could have made for Lawrence. By the end of 2022, it's fair to say it was.

Lawrence was being drafted in fantasy football drafts as the QB18 before ultimately finishing as the QB7 with 295.62 fantasy points. The Jaguars' franchise quarterback found his groove again to the tune of 4,113 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, and just 8 interceptions. He was dynamite and showed why he was the top pick a year earlier.

It can also be forgotten that T-Law can add with his legs; he ran for 291 yards and 5 TDs -- and he's only going to get better.

It was a return to where he was and where he was going. The Jaguars are heading into 2023 as a team to watch, and Jacksonville went out of their way to make sure that 2023 is another gigantic step forward for their star.

Year Two in the System and a New Favorite Weapon

Year two in a system can do the world of good for any player -- especially a young quarterback.

The best example, of course, would be Jalen Hurts. Hurts became a superstar in his second season under Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni. It's likely he would have won the NFL MVP if it wasn't for missing two games during the season. Lawrence had a better first season under Pederson than Hurts did under Sirianni, so imagine year two.

The sky is the limit for what Lawrence can be and it gets all the more exciting when you consider who they added.

Enter Calvin Ridley.

Ridley was a top wide receiver in football prior to his leave in 2021 and eventual suspension for sports betting in 2022.

The Jaguars' new wideout finished 2020 with 90 receptions for 1,374 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. He's also averaged 12.6 fantasy points in his career. They could potentially be adding a guy with that potential to the trio that Lawrence depended on in 2023 (Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram) is awfully exciting for Lawrence's prospects in this offense.

Still at just 28 years old, Ridley has already shown signs of being Lawrence's new favorite weapon -- or, at the very least, a game-changer -- based on their plays in practice, as well.

A slew of weapons to go with more comfort in the offense should mean a great season ahead for Lawrence. Don't be afraid to pick him when he possesses legitimate top-five potential.

Final Verdict: The Last of the 'Top Options' You Need in Fantasy

Trevor Lawrence is going to be really good this season. That isn't much of a question but more of the simplest expectation. But, in fantasy, he's going to be the last of the top options going off the board and has value because of that.

The current averaged draft position for quarterbacks is all pretty similar in leagues with Lawrence coming in at eighth.

Rank
Player
ADP
1Patrick Mahomes13.7
2Josh Allen19.7
3Jalen Hurts22.0
4Joe Burrow34.3
5Lamar Jackson35.3
6Justin Herbert44.7
7Justin Fields45.0

If Lawrence is able to make the next leap in his development, he could be the steal amongst quarterbacks this year where he's going compared to the eight ahead of him. And if he can keep the same amount of rushing numbers while the passing improves, it's hard to see a world where he doesn't have an elite season both in real football and fantasy.

numberFire has the same expectations for Lawrence as he comes in as the QB8 based on points with 305.9 points projected. FantasyPros, as listed above, has Lawrence as the QB8 with an average draft position (ADP) of 54.7. That's notable because it's about 25 picks ahead of the next player at the position, showing he's part of the top tier. In FanDuel best-ball leagues, he comes in as the QB8 again with an ADP of 50.7.

Lawrence has all the tools to be a top-five quarterback in football and fantasy. It feels like we've reached the point of when -- not if -- in terms of his talent and the pieces around him getting there.

If you're willing to wait just long enough on a quarterback, Lawrence can be the "steal" of the elite top eight QBs that fantasy football seems to have annointed into the 2023 season.


While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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