Toledo vs UMass College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for MAC Tournament

The No. 4 seed Toledo Rockets (18-14, 11-7 MAC) head into the MAC tournament against the No. 8 seed UMass Minutemen (17-15, 7-11 MAC) on Friday at Rocket Arena, beginning at 5 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Toledo vs. UMass Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Friday, March 13, 2026
• Game time: 5 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS Sports Network
• Location: Cleveland, Ohio
• Arena: Rocket Arena

Toledo vs. UMass Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Toledo win (59.9%)

Before you wager on Friday's Toledo-UMass spread (Toledo -3.5) or over/under (158.5 points), check out the betting insights and trends below.

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Toledo vs. UMass: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Toledo has compiled a 16-14-0 ATS record so far this year.
• UMass is 12-19-0 ATS this season.
• As a 3.5-point underdog or more in 2025-26, UMass is 5-2 against the spread compared to the 5-4 ATS record Toledo puts up as a 3.5-point favorite.
• Against the spread, the Rockets have performed worse when playing at home, covering six times in 13 home games, and nine times in 14 road games.
• Against the spread, the Minutemen have performed better at home (5-10-0) than away (3-7-0).
• Toledo's record against the spread in conference play is 12-7-0.
• UMass has beaten the spread six times in 19 MAC games.

Toledo vs. UMass: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Toledo has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 18 games this year and has walked away with the win 12 times (66.7%) in those games.
• The Rockets have yet to lose in nine games when named as moneyline favorite of -162 or better.
• UMass has won 38.5% of the games this season it was the moneyline underdog (5-8).
• When playing as a moneyline underdog with odds of +134 or longer, the Minutemen have a record of 3-6 (33.3%).
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Toledo has a 61.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Toledo vs. UMass Head-to-Head Comparison

• Offensively, Toledo was the 55th-ranked team in the nation (78.9 points per game) last year. On defense, it was 13th-worst (80.2 points allowed per game).
• Toledo was 253rd in college basketball in rebounds per game (30.8) and 195th in rebounds conceded (31.4) last year.
• Toledo was 214th in college basketball in assists (13.1 per game) last season.
• Toledo was the 10th-best squad in the nation in turnovers per game (9) and 288th in turnovers forced (10.2) last year.
• With 72.9 points per game on offense, UMass ranked 205th in the country last season. At the other end, it gave up 75 points per contest, which ranked 271st in college basketball.
• UMass ranked 21st-best in the country by averaging 35.8 boards per game. In terms of rebounds allowed, it ranked 321st in college basketball (33.8 allowed per contest).
• UMass ranked 227th in the country with 12.9 dimes per game.
• UMass was 186th in the country with 11.2 turnovers per game last year. Meanwhile, it ranked 112th with 12 forced turnovers per contest.

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