Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night (Ravens at Chiefs)

The 2024 NFL season opens with what should be one of best Thursday Night Football games of the year, and neither team will be dealing with the short rest that typically plagues these matchups. The Kansas City Chiefs will open their Super Bowl title defense at home against the Baltimore Ravens, one of the favorites to challenge them for the AFC crown again. The Chiefs are 3.0-point favorites in a game that features a 46.5 over/under.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

If you aren't afraid to be chalky, Patrick Mahomes ($17,500) and Lamar Jackson ($17,000) are the obvious answers for the multiplier slot. Even with Marquise Brown ruled out this week, Mahomes opens the year with an enticing supporting cast at his disposal that should lead to more spike weeks than 2023. Jackson's legs offer a dual-threat element few QBs can match, and he's fresh off a real-life MVP campaign. Both have median projections of roughly 20 FanDuel points in our model, and no one else comes particularly close.

This is our first opportunity to see how Derrick Henry ($14,500) is utilized in a Ravens uniform, and if the road team keeps things close as the spread suggests, he should be in line for a big workload. There could be some hurdles, though, as there are o-line concerns (Baltimore is 25th in PFF's preseason rankings), and Lamar did log 21.0% of Baltimore's carries inside the 10-yard line in 2023. Even so, Henry should be the main guy at the goal line, and even if he's fairly popular, he should come in at a far lower MVP roster percentage than the QBs.

Isiah Pacheco ($12,500) doesn't project to see quite as many touches as Henry, but he's the featured back on the home favorite, and Samaje Perine might not play a significant role after signing less than a week ago. Pacheco soaked up a 66.7% red-zone rush share in his 14 games last season. There's a case he's the top non-QB option for MVP.

I'm guessing roster percentages will be spread between both teams' pass-catchers, and if we're picking one to emerge as a contrarian MVP, Rashee Rice ($10,000) is an intriguing choice. From Week 12 through the playoffs last year, Rice would lead the team with a 26.4% target share, averaging just under 9 targets per game.

Flex Targets

• Travis Kelce ($14,000) -- Kelce turns 35 years old next month, so a managed workload and/or reduced effectiveness wouldn't be shocking. He shouldn't be completely written off, of course, but at the fourth-highest salary, he's someone to consider fading as someone who might not pay off as a popular play.
• Zay Flowers ($11,500) and Mark Andrews ($11,000) -- Jackson's primary pass-catchers were both right around a 23% target share apiece in nine healthy games together in 2023. They're fringe MVPs in lineups banking on a Baltimore upset.
• Xavier Worthy ($8,500) -- We don't know what kind of usage Worthy will see in his NFL debut, but the absence of Hollywood Brown suggests he should play a lot. Perhaps his record-breaking 40 time at the NFL Combine will lead to a surprise opening week performance if Mahomes connects on a deep play.
• Rashod Bateman ($7,500) -- Bateman is a popular sleeper to an almost worrisome degree on the FanDuel Research staff. But there's no question he's a viable value play as Baltimore's WR2 entering the season.

Get ready for Thursday Night Football! All customers get one No-Sweat Token for any wager on the Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs NFL game on September 5th. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.