Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night (Jaguars at Bills)

We have an NFL doubleheader on Monday with the first game kicking off at 7:30 pm ET between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills. The Bills are 5.5-point home favorites, and the contest as a 46.5 over/under.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Josh Allen ($17,500) flashed his dual-threat upside in Week 1 (31.2 FanDuel points) but fell back to earth in Week 2 (9.8 points). The latter score had more to do with a lopsided win where running back James Cook ($15,500) did most of the heavy lifting, though, so it isn't anything to be concerned about. Allen is projected for a game-high 21.9 FanDuel points, per our NFL DFS projections, and no one else comes close. He's the top MVP option but will also come at by far the highest roster percentage.

And speaking of Cook, he rumbled his way to 28 FanDuel points last week behind a whopping three touchdowns despite logging just 13 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) due to the game getting out of hand by the third quarter. His usage should get back up to the more robust 25 adjusted opportunities he saw in the opener, and while Allen will continue to steal rushing scores from him, it's encouraging that Cook has seen both of the team's carries inside the five-yard line. As the lead back on the home favorite with perhaps a better goal line role than expected, Cook is another strong MVP.

Even with Jaguars backup RB Tank Bigsby playing zero offensive snaps due to a injury on special teams last week, Travis Etienne ($13,000) saw only a slight bump in usage with D'Ernest Johnson essentially replacing Bigsby's snaps. While the good news is Etienne's dominated red zone carries (90.0%), he's also averaged just 58.5 scrimmage yards behind 19.5 adjusted opportunities per game. His touchdown potential near the goal line boosts his prospects, but Etienne's lack of efficiency means he needs a lot to go right to emerge with a slate-best score.

While Trevor Lawrence ($13,500) is showing the slate's second-best median projection, he has underwhelmed through two weeks by scoring 11.3 and 13.3 FanDuel points. Making matters worse, the Bills have come away with numberFire' fifth-best adjusted pass defense thus far. Lawrence has demonstrated poor underlying metrics, averaging -0.09 expected points added per drop back and -10.7% completion percentage over expected. He's obviously tough to get excited about at MVP, but a Jags upset would likely mean a strong performance, and he shouldn't draw as much attention as QBs typically do in the multiplier slot.

Targets have been spread out across pass-catchers for both teams, making it difficult to single one out as strong MVP option. No player has a receiving yardage prop line that reaches even 50 yards tonight.

Flex Targets

Dalton Kincaid ($12,000) -- It's telling that Kincaid projects for the game's most targets (7.0) despite seeing just 6 total through two weeks. He's second on the team in route rate (72.0%), but it's led to a mere 14.6% target share and -0.5% air yards share. The short nature of his targets is the biggest concern here, as that will really limit his upside unless things dramatically change.

Brian Thomas Jr. ($11,000) -- Thomas has scored 10.4 and 12.7 FanDuel points, yet he's third among the Jags wideouts in route rate (76.0%), and his 17.4% target share is just okay. Leading the team with 3.13 yards per route run, he's probably still the most likely Jacksonville pass-catcher to target for a spike week.

Keon Coleman ($10,500) -- If I'm rolling the dice on a Bills pass-catcher posting an MVP-worthy performance, it might be Coleman. While he had one target in Week 2's blowout, he's run the most routes (78.0%) overall and led the team in targets (5) in Week 1's more competitive matchup.

Khalil Shakir ($10,000) -- Shakir led Buffalo in targets last week (5) and had a 96.0% first half snap rate before things really got out of hand. He has the highest receiving yardage prop line (46.5) in this game and is another one to consider as a fringe MVP in case his Week 2 role is a sign of things to come.

Christian Kirk ($9,500) -- Kirk has been nonexistent in the box score but has Jacksonville's second-highest route rate (82.0%), so better days should be ahead.

Gabriel Davis ($9,500) -- Despite somewhat modest results, Davis leads the Jags' wideouts in snap rate (96.2%), route rate (86.9%), target share (21.7%), and 29.1% air yards share. While Lawrence's performance is a concern, Davis is facing his old team and was known for his occasional spike weeks with the Bills.

Brenton Strange ($9,000) -- Strange will fill in at tight end for the injured Evan Engram again, who has been ruled out. With Engram out last week, Strange saw six targets (22.2% share) and ran a route on 61.1% of the snaps. He's looking like a strong value play.

Buffalo Bills D/ST ($9,000) and Tyler Bass ($8,500) -- If Lawrence struggles, game script could lead to strong performances from Buffalo's defense and/or kicker.

Tank Bigsby ($8,500) -- If Bigsby is active, he should duplicate his Week 1 role, which resulted in a 34.0% snap rate and 12.0 adjusted opportunities. He out-gained Etienne 73 to 59 in scrimmage yards, so a more even split shouldn't be ruled out if he's playing well, too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.