Premier League Betting: Best Bets for Matchweek 1

The Premier League season kicks off on Friday afternoon and continues with matches throughout the weekend.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 1

Nottingham Forest at Bournemouth (10 a.m. ET Saturday)

Nottingham Forest Moneyline (+140)

There was a large points gap between Forest and Bournemouth last season as the Cherries amassed 48 points to Forest's 32. But their expected goals (xG) data -- per FBRef's model -- was very similar. Forest ended with an xG difference of -3.3 while Bournemouth's was -2.2.

On top of that, Bournemouth lost star striker Dominic Solanke this summer as Solanke moved to Spurs in for a fee of $64.3 million. Solanke accounted for 19 of the Cherries' 52 EPL goals last season, so he leaves behind a gaping hole. There's still time left in the transfer window for Bournemouth to bring in a replacement, but it doesn't seem like they'll have anything in place in time for this match.

These two sides were pretty level last year -- at least in terms of xG -- and Bournemouth is missing its talisman. Plus, this match is at Nottingham Forest. A lot of signs point to Forest having the edge on Saturday.

Southampton at Newcastle (10 a.m. ET Saturday)

Newcastle Over 2.5 Goals (+112)

I like Newcastle's chances to overwhelm newly promoted Southampton on Saturday, and oddsmakers do, too, as Newcastle is -310 to win. I think the Magpies will have a lot of success in attack and am willing to back Newcastle to score at least three goals at +112 odds.

Newcastle -- a side I like in a couple different futures markets -- dealt with a slew of injuries and suspensions last year, which severely hindered their ability to rotate the squad at different points of the season. Despite that, the Magpies still racked up the fourth-most xG in the league. They also allowed the ninth-most xG, showing a commitment to attacking and taking chances in spite of being short-handed.

Now that they're not nearly as short-handed, Newcastle could blow away the Saints on Saturday. Southampton struggled defensively in the Championship last campaign, allowing the 11th-most goals in the league, and now they open up their EPL season at a really tough road venue versus one of the Premier League's best sides.

At home in 2023-24, Newcastle rolled people, netting an impressive 49 goals in 19 matches. In three home matches versus last season’s promoted sides, Newcastle scored a combined 11 goals.

Newcastle have the attacking firepower to give anyone fits, especially at St. James' Park, and Southampton should spend large chunks of Saturday's matchup pinned back in their own half.

Player Props

Anthony Gordon to Score or Assist (-135): Gordon might be a man on a mission early this season after barely seeing the pitch for England at the Euros. This bet correlates well with Newcastle scoring over 2.5 goals. If the Magpies do that, Gordon has a great chance to notch a goal or assist. He recorded 21 combined goals plus assists a year ago in 34 league starts. The lone negative is that he doesn't take penalties. He handled some corners, though, last year.

Bukayo Saka to Score or Assist (-140): Arsenal are at home against Wolves and are -115 to go over 2.5 goals. That puts Saka in an outstanding spot to score or assist. Saka -- the Gunners' penalty taker -- totaled 16 goals and 9 assists in 35 EPL starts last campaign. Wolves allowed the sixth-most xG last year, including 2.8 xG in their match at the Emirates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.