Phillies vs. Braves National League Division Series Preview

The Wild Card Series has wrapped up, and MLB is onto the ALDS and NLDS, all beginning this Saturday.

In a rematch from last year's playoffs, NL East teams will collide as the No. 1 Atlanta Braves take on the No. 4 Philadelphia Phillies in what may be the best series of the postseason.

Let's take a look at how the series between two of the top teams in baseball breaks down.

All MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Phillies vs. Braves NL Division Series: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

• Series Moneyline:
  • Phillies: +148
  • Braves: -184
• Total Games:
  • 3 (+260)
  • 4 (+152)
  • 5 (+162)
• Correct Score:
  • Phillies 3-0 (+1040)
  • Phillies 3-1 (+540)
  • Phillies 3-2 (+490)
  • Braves 3-0 (+390)
  • Braves 3-1 (+290)
  • Braves 3-2 (+330)

Phillies vs. Braves Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Phillies:

• W-L Record: 90-72 (T-6th)
• Run Differential: +81 (T-11th)
• Home Record: 49-32
• Away Record: 41-40
• nERD: 1.04 (7th)
• Offensive Stats:
  • HRs: 220 (8th)
  • wOBA: .329 (6th)
  • SLG: .438 (5th)
  • BB%: 8.7% (16th)
  • K%: 23.9% (20th-best)
• Pitching Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.99 (6th)
  • xFIP: 4.02 (5th)
  • K%: 23.9% (7th)
  • BB%: 7.7% (6th-best)

Braves:

• W-L Record: 104-58 (1st)
• Run Differential: +231 (1st)
• Home Record: 52-29
• Away Record: 52-29
• nERD: 1.70 (T-2nd)
• Offensive Stats:
  • HRs: 307 (1st)
  • wOBA: .359 (1st)
  • SLG: .501 (1st)
  • BB%: 8.6% (16th)
  • K%: 20.6% (5th-best)
• Pitching Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.03 (8th)
  • xFIP: 4.10 (9th)
  • K%: 24.7% (4th)
  • BB%: 8.7% (19th-best)

Phillies vs. Braves NL Division Series Analysis

No team walked out of the Wild Card Series more unlucky than the Braves.

After being baseball's best team for the better part of 2023, Atlanta will have to face off with the Phillies -- an offensive juggernaut in their own right. And it's a juggernaut that has found its footing at the right time, specifically in the last round, where the Philadelphia faithful willed them on to a dominant series win over the Miami Marlins.

It was just a season ago when the Phillies powered through the Wild Card Series and then took down the Braves 3-1 in the Division Series before eventually getting themselves a World Series appearance. The difference, however, between this year and last year is that this Atlanta team is unquestionably the best team in the sport coming into the playoffs.

As noted above, their offensive numbers were out of this world compared to pretty much everyone else. Ranking first in both home runs and wOBA is about as good as it gets for an offense, as their lineup put up gaudy numbers from start to finish.

The 307 home runs on the year are tied for the most ever in a single season by a team, coming on the back of MLB leader Matt Olson (54) and expected NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. (41). If they can translate their regular season success into the postseason, the Phillies may not be able to stop them. But it's a big if because crazy things happen in the postseason.

Where the Phillies will have an advantage is the pitching side -- which often is what controls a team's playoff destiny. Philadelphia ranked top 10 in SIERA, xFIP, K%, and BB%, and they showed that pitching prowess in the Wild Card series, as they held the Marlins to just two runs. The Braves were also in the top 10 for SIERA, xFIP, and K% but only did the strikeout rate rank ahead of Philadelphia.

Atlanta remains the World Series favorite as of now, sitting at +270 odds, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Phillies come in at +800, the fifth-best after the Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, and Baltimore Orioles.

While the Dodgers certainly have plenty to say regarding the representative of the National League, it does feel as though whichever team survives this series could be the favorite to get to the World Series. With the NL East representing the National League in three of the last four years, it's tough to argue.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.