Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Preview: Best Bets and Predictions

The 2025 NBA Finals stage has been set, and it all tips off this Thursday when the Indiana Pacers visit the Oklahoma City Thunder for Game 1.

Oklahoma City hasn't been to the Finals since 2012 while Indiana hasn't been to this stage since the turn of the century. When it's all said and done this postseason, seven different teams will have won a championship in as many years. More stunning? A third of the league has recorded a Finals appearance since 2020.

The Thunder got here by way of a league-best 68-14 regular-season record and a not-so-surprising dominant Western Conference playoff run. The Pacers, on the other hand, are a tried-and-true underdog story. They upset the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round and dodged the Eastern Conference favorite Boston Celtics, instead choking the New York Knicks out of the Eastern Conference Finals.

The last two NBA Finals lasted just five games. Will the chalky Thunder help deliver a similar fate, or will the Pacers make good on a magical playoff run?

All NBA betting odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Betting Odds

There was never any debate about which team would be favored in this matchup -- the degree to which was the bigger question.

Oklahoma City enters with eye-poppingly-short -750 odds to win the NBA Finals. Indiana is a +530 underdog to win the franchise's first NBA title.

The series over/under is set at 5.5 games.

What should we expect from this matchup, and which Pacers-Thunder NBA Finals bets stand out?

Best Bets for Pacers vs. Thunder in the NBA Finals

Pacers To Win the NBA Finals (+530)

I cannot claim to have expected an Indiana Pacers Finals appearance in 2025, but they were one of just five teams to meet the NBA Finals historical criteria heading into this postseason.

Why was a fourth seed with a 13th-ranked net rating and potential lack of star power able to make the harsh cut? Well, the Pacers finished the regular season with a league-best clutch net rating and the fourth-best effective field goal percentage (EFG%) -- two marks that have been incredibly indicative of postseason success. In fact, the last 10 teams to win the NBA Finals finished the regular-season with a top-3 EFG%. Indiana (4th) outdid OKC (7th) in that regard this season.

The Pacers have doubled-down on those same qualities this postseason. They lead the playoffs in EFG% (57.6%) and are second in clutch net rating (+37.4). Oklahoma City fares just sixth (53.2%) and fourth (+11.7) in those categories.

Does that mean something entering these Finals? Perhaps. Three of the last four champions had a better postseason clutch net rating heading into the Finals than their opponent. Moreover, 8 of the last 12 winners came into the Finals with a better postseason EFG% than their opponent. I'll emphasize that Indiana's EFG% this postseason is more than four percentage points better than OKC.

The trends that favor Indiana don't stop there. 35 of the last 40 teams to win the NBA Finals had reached the conference finals stage (or further) in one of the three seasons leading up to their victory. The Pacers competed in the Eastern Conference Finals just last season. Meanwhile, this is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's first rodeo and, before this run, the Thunder franchise hadn't advanced to the conference finals since 2016.

Now, some of this might not matter -- and perhaps totally go out the window -- once we examine these teams at face value. Oklahoma City is the better team. They were expected to be at this stage, while the Pacers seem to be on a magic carpet ride. But if we're seeking value, we can find that in backing the Pacers.

Plus, a part of me wonders if the Thunder's NBA Finals odds would be equally as short if we flip-flopped the Denver and Minnesota series'. OKC just bulldozed a Minnesota group that made it to the conference finals on the back of being on the (far) easier side of the bracket, making it easy to forget some of those late-game Thunder hiccups in a seven-game series opposite a hobbled Nuggets group.

Whether it's the playoff experience (Rick Carlisle has earned his as a player and a coach) or the elite shot-making and clutch play exhibited to the umpteenth degree this year, I believe the Pacers are a bolder contender than their +530 odds suggest.

You can also check out our latest 2025 NBA Playoffs printable bracket, which includes the seeding and matchups for each conference.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.