Olympic Tennis Best Bets: Djokovic vs. Alcaraz Gold Medal Match

The men's singles tennis tournament at the Paris Olympics comes to its conclusion on Sunday. In a final that most were expecting, top seeds Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will face off for a chance at Olympic gold.

Where can we find betting value in this gold medal match?

Olympic Tennis Best Bets

Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Djokovic ML (+195)
Over 2.5 Sets (+128)

Carlos Alcaraz is playing fantastic tennis right now and is fresh off steamrolling Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-1, 6-1, giving him five straight Olympic matches without dropping a set. He's the reigning French Open and Wimbledon champion, and when he last faced Novak Djokovic just a few weeks ago, he cruised to a 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(4) victory in the Wimbledon final.

However, winning a gold medal is one of the only accomplishments that has eluded Djokovic in his illustrious career, so it's hard to see him rolling over so close to the finish line. Alcaraz is a very deserving favorite, but -240 odds might not be giving his opponent enough credit.

Per Massey Ratings' matchup tool, this should be closer to a pick 'em, with Alcaraz showing a 51% win probability on clay. Likewise, Tennis Abstract's clay-blended Elo ratings have these two separated by just 76 points, ranking Alcaraz first and Djokovic third.

We shouldn't overlook the fact that Djokovic also hasn't dropped a set here and has logged quality wins over Rafael Nadal, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Lorenzo Musetti.

Although Djokovic expressed concern over his surgically repaired knee in the quarterfinals, a 6-4, 6-2 semifinal win over Musetti suggests it might not be an issue.

At the end of the day, an Alcaraz win wouldn't be surprising, and backing him would be understandable. But it's rare to see Djokovic as this much of an underdog, making this a possible value spot. Alternatively, backing this match to go three sets would be another angle to choose in a likely competitive match.

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